Match Preview: Arsenal v Newcastle; The Depth of Presumption

December 16, 2017

One of the most maddening aspects of following Arsenal is the presumptuousness of its online fan base. So many supporters seem to be able to read the minds of the manager and players; there’s also a know-it-all contingent that enjoys lecturing the club’s representatives on the proper exercise of their professional duties.

As a result, I hesitate to generalize about the priorities, motives, or mindsets of Arsenal executives, manager Arsène Wenger and his staff, or the players.

That said, I think it’s fair to say that Wenger prefers an entertaining style of football, one that encourages the attacking players to express themselves. This is both an aesthetic choice and a business choice: Fans pay for style and goals, and it’s easier to recruit great players by promoting their freedom.

For those reasons, my guess is that the manager is not likely to persist much longer with the approach that produced lackluster performances at Southampton and West Ham. One goal in those two matches, regardless of the opposition’s preference to thwart Arsenal rather than assert themselves offensively, is not the return Wenger wants to deliver.

Expect, then, a different Arsenal when Newcastle visit the Emirates on Saturday.

Again, I don’t presume to read the manager’s mind here or to tell him what to do. God forbid.

Instead, I’m just taking him at his word. For example, reflecting on the match at West Ham, he said, “I will adapt a little bit to the problem we face. I played a back four at West Ham because I thought we’d have a lot of the ball and wanted one more offensive player in the team.”

He also noted that he expected Newcastle to approach the match from a similarly defensive posture, so it’s not crazy to conclude that we could see four at the back again on Saturday.

The question is, who will constitute the attack? The starting center forward (Olivier Giroud), one attacking midfielder (Alex Iwobi), and a central midfielder (Jack Wilshere) were all different against West Ham than they had been against Southampton. Those three have largely been part of the “A-Prime” team that we’ve seen in midweek cup matches.

Although perhaps none of those put in such a poor performance individually on Wednesday, the collection certainly did not amount to a scintillating attack. Sometime star man Alexis is also far from his best—for whatever reason. Would Wenger keep his game-changing qualities on the bench when Arsenal really need a spark?

I’ve no idea what the manager will or should do. But I’m fairly confident that the answer will be interesting.

Trends to Watch

Much of the discomfort Arsenal have experienced this season has come on the road. Performances at the Emirates have been much more pleasing, in general. That despite most visitors setting up to defend in the final third. Can the Gunners leave their frustrations where they happened—away from home? Can they overwhelm Newcastle during one exceptional period and then manage the game from that point? And which group of 11 players, and what playing structure, are most likely to produce those outcomes?

How the Match Plays Out

This topic calls for presumption, but here goes: Arsenal are aggressive from the first whistle, closing down the Magpies and jumping on mistakes. The free flow is back, orchestrated by Mesut Özil, and some of the clinical goalscoring edge returns.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Alexandre Lacazette. Arsenal paid a record fee—and commensurate wages—to acquire the Frenchman from Lyon. It made those investments precisely for conditions like this, when the team is struggling to score. Maybe that’s not fair, but that’s the business.

Newcastle. Isaac Hayden. The former Arsenal prospect will be motivated to show his worth to his former club, and his position at the base of the midfield might allow him to do that. His responsibilities won’t be eased by the absence of partner Jonjo Shelvey.

Injuries and Suspensions

Arsenal: Cazorla (plantaris), Mustafi (thigh), Ramsey (hamstring), Walcott (groin)

Newcastle: Shelvey (suspended), Mitrovic (back)

Goals Scored Per Match (season average)

Arsenal: 1.76

Newcastle: 0.94

Goals Conceded Per Match (season average)

Arsenal: 1.18

Newcastle: 1.53

Match Officials

Referee: Stuart Attwell (6M, 21Y, 1R)
Assistant referees: S Long, M Wilkes
Fourth official: M Dean

Broadcast Information

UK: Highlights only
US: NBC Sports Gold, 10:00 AM EDT

YAMA Prediction

Arsenal 3 – 0 Newcastle

The Manager’s Take (Courtesy Arsenal.com):

Newcastle are in a difficult period as well, so they will want to defend well. I watched them against Man United and they were quite dangerous going forward as well. They are a team who will certainly be very sound defensively. Benitez has a lot of experience and they will come to the Emirates and certainly try to be organised defensively.

Match Facts (Courtesy BBC.com)
  • Arsenal have won nine successive Premier League games against Newcastle, scoring 22 goals and conceding just six.
  • Newcastle have lost their last five away matches at Arsenal, with their most recent victory being 1-0 in November 2010.
  • Arsenal are winless in three Premier League games, drawing two of them.
  • They are closer to the bottom of the table than to the top – 18 points ahead of Swansea and 19 points behind leaders Manchester City.
  • Arsenal could lose back-to-back home league games in the same season for the first time since November 2010, when one of those defeats came against Newcastle.
  • The Gunners are unbeaten in 33 matches against promoted teams, winning 28 of them, since losing at QPR in March 2012.
  • Arsene Wenger’s side have kept eight clean sheets in 2017-18, second only to Manchester United’s 10.
  • No side have hit the woodwork more than Arsenal this season, who have done so on 10 occasions.
  • Olivier Giroud has scored five goals in four league games against the Magpies at the Emirates Stadium.
  • They have picked up just one point in their last eight Premier League matches, conceding 18 goals during that period.
  • Newcastle’s tally of 15 points is their lowest after 17 matches of a top-flight season since 1988-89, when they went on to finish bottom.
  • The Magpies’ last league win was 1-0 at home to Crystal Palace on 21 October.
  • Rafa Benitez’s side have been beaten in 10 of their 17 league games.
  • Newcastle’s 1-0 win at Swansea in September is their solitary triumph in 19 Premier League away matches – they have taken just seven points from a possible 57 during this run.

Comments

  1. David Lewindon - December 16, 2017 at 06:55

    It’s refreshing to see a rational piece about Arsenal rather than the mindless tropes and insulting attacks on the clubs personal.

    Reply

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