The Stats That Show Why Arsenal Should Be Favourites for the Premier League Title
The feeling that Manchester City will improve as the season goes on. The sense that Liverpool are a different animal in 2023/24. The memory of Leicester City’s unlikely title win in 2016 that tells us that Aston Villa are genuine contenders.
This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting EPL title races in years, with at least four genuine candidates for the silverware at the halfway mark of the campaign.
But there are plenty of pundits who are only too happy to write off Arsenal’s chances… here’s why they could be made to eat their words come May.
The Art of Defence
One of the criticisms of Mikel Arteta’s team is that they never seem to do things the easy way, which perhaps explains why those who bet on the Premier League winners are still favouring Manchester City (5/6) and Liverpool (3/1) over the Gunners (7/2).
Is that an accurate state of affairs after 16 rounds of games? Perhaps, although there are plenty of statistics that would suggest that it’s Arsenal that should be the title favourites right now – as well as the anecdotal feeling that last year’s close brush with the trophy will stand them in good stead this time around.
The first reason for optimism is the quality of Arsenal’s defending, with clean sheets making it so much easier to win games of football. At the time of writing, Arteta’s side have the joint-best defensive record – as far as goals conceded is concerned – in the division.
— Gabriel Magalhaes (@biel_m04) March 30, 2023
Tied-first for goals conceded and clean sheets kept, the Gunners also top the table when it comes to xG yielded and fewest saves made – all of which confirms just how difficult it is to find a way past Gabriel and co.
Come In, Number Nine
It could be considered a good thing that Arsenal’s players generally share the goals around, but perhaps the missing link in their title bid is a genuine goalscorer of a striker – somebody who would pop up with 20 goals a season without much fuss.
The good news is that Arteta and his recruitment team will have the January transfer window to rectify the situation – be it Ivan Toney or somebody else, with a prolific marksman arguably the only piece of the jigsaw missing for Arsenal’s title bid.
Goal for Brentford, scored by Ivan Toney.
1-1 (74)
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) February 11, 2023
They have more touches in the opposition’s third of the pitch than any other Premier League side, only Tottenham are better than the Gunners at breaking the lines with progressive passes, and a ranking of fifth for xG – which could be higher – is still enough for plenty of high-quality goalscoring chances to be created per 90 minutes.
And here’s an interesting stat that shows the need for improvement: Arsenal sit 14th in the EPL for shots on target % – that is, the ratio of shots taken that would find their way into the net but for a defensive block or goalkeeper save.
Brilliantly defensively and creating consistently excellent chances, Arsenal are simply wayward in front of goal – would a January signing of a top-class striker ultimately guide them to the title? The stats suggest as much…
