Arsenal Can Move To Third With A Win Against Newcastle
Arsenal can move up to third place in the Premier League table with a win when they take on Newcastle later today at the Emirates. It’s a remarkable feat for a team some said were the 6th best squad out of the top 6.
In the history of the Premier League, the highest total required to finish in the top 4 and secure Champion’s League play was 79 points (it would also see you finish at least second or third in every year save for 13/14).
To get to that 79-point target, Arsenal would have to take 19 of a possible 24 points in the remaining 8 games. 3 of those games (including tonight) are at home. That means we’d have to take 10 on the road against the likes of Wolves, Leicester, Watford, Burnley and Everton.
That road to 19 points begins tonight as Rafa Benitez’s Newcastle come to the Emirates.
When last we met
Arsenal last met Newcastle in September of 2018. The 2-1 at St James’ park was Arsenal’s third win under new manager Unai Emery. It was anything but pretty, but it was a result that secured their first back to back wins on the road since May 2017.
The team struggled to get its feet under them in the first half of that match as they were still coming to terms with the new way Emery was trying to get them to play but as was typical of Arsenal at the time, the second half is where they came to life.
A free kick by Granit Xhaka four minutes into the second half broke the 0-0 draw. Mesut Özil would secure the win with his first goal of the season. Ciaran Clark would grab the consolation goal, but it was a case of too-little-too-late.
Newcastle looked solid playing their 4-4-2 mid-block patiently waiting for specific moments to apply pressure to Arsenal. They would look to aggressively press Arsenal when Cech was trying to play out the back.
Benitez wanted his team to exploit the Czech Republic Keeper’s discomfort on the ball and try and win it as high up the pitch as possible. If Arsenal happened to beat the press, they would retreat to their mid-block.
They were effective at home where they limited Arsenal to two shots on target over the course of the entirety of the match.
Arsenal had the lion’s share of the possession. They started in a 4-3-3- shifting occasionally into a 4-2-3-1 for their press with one of the strikers leading the press supported by the other forwards and Özil.
Emery’s tactic was to try and get the ball back as soon as possible and the counter-press the employed was quite effective.
Fortress Emirates
The good news for the Gunners is that we are playing at home. Their last home match was the emphatic 2-0 win versus Manchester United that saw them jump into the top 4 and open up a 2 point lead on one of the challengers for a Champion’s league spot.
Emery’s side have been one of the top 3 in the league when it comes to home form. They are averaging 2.31 goals per game (league average of 1.58) and for a team much maligned for its defensive frailties, they are stingy, conceding an average of 0.75 goals per game (1.25 league average)
The Gunners are more likely to win a match at home (obviously) with only 12% of the matches played at the Emirates this season resulting in a draw and 6% ending in defeats (13W 2D 1L 37 points).
Additionally, Emery has tactically gotten his team playing effectively again. The Gunners hunt for the top four has coincided with better use of Arsenal’s more talented players as well as a positionally putting in players in the right position to be successful.
Against United, Arsenal set up in a 3-4-1-2 formation with width coming from the wingbacks. With Leno in goal, gone was the haphazard approach to playing out of the back to more comfortable build play.
The most effective play from the midfield coming from our two best players in Aaron Ramsey and Mesut Özil who often found themselves with spaces between the lines to set the attack free.
Our visitors
Some might look at this match and think it will be an easy stroll on a Monday evening. But it will be anything but.
Like the first tie earlier in the season, Rafa has his team well coached and disciplined to play against the big sides.
Against Manchester City, going down early in the match, Rafa stuck to his guns and played a 3-4-3. Their game plan was clear – concede possession and defend in their own half.
Tactically, they would then decide to either counter through Atsu and Perez with support from Ritchie and Yedlin looking. The counter would either look to play passes into space or into Rondon’s feet trying to bring others into play.
If they didn’t counter City, they would look to play direct into Rondon. Rondon would then look to play the ball in behind or lay it off to a midfielder who would make the penetrating pass into the box.
Defensively, they dropped into 5-4-1 avoiding pressing and chasing Man City and looking to stifle their ability to pass through their lines.
In Conclusion
We should expect that Newcastle will come to the Emirates and employ a similar plan to the one they exhibited against Manchester City. Its whole intent is to stifle the passing options of the opposition.
Arsenal will need to be patient and possibly consider conceding some of the possession in order to invite Newcastle into the game.
Even with the threat of Rondon, Arsenal are a formidable opponent for most teams when they come to the Emirates. With all of that you’d still have to favour Arsenal to come away with the 3 points and a jump into third place in the league.
Players to Watch
Arsenal. Alexandre Lacazette.
Newcastle. Miguel Almiron.
Form (last five)
Arsenal: WWWDW
Newcastle: WWLWD
Arsenal record vs Newcastle United
47M 27W 10D 10L (Premier League)
Goals scored average per game
Arsenal: 2.31 (home)
Newcastle: 0.80 (away)
Goals conceded average per game
Arsenal: .75 (home)
Newcastle: 1.33 (away)
What the Head Coach Says (Courtesy Arsenal.com)
It’s not my thought now, because I know Monday’s match is going to be very difficult. Newcastle are in a good moment. They have a lot good players and good organisation. The coach has a lot of experience and he is very competitive and I know that. The last matches they are playing, they are playing with a big confidence and very strong defensively and very competitive. My focus is on how we can break their defensive positions and also a big performance for us to take a win against them.
Match Officials
Referee: Anthony Taylor (27M 88Y 1R)
Assistants: Gary Beswick, Adam Nunn
Fourth official: David Coote
Broadcast Information
UK: Sky Sports 20.00 BST
US: NBC Sports Network 3:00 PM EST
Match Facts (Courtesy BBC.co.uk)
- Arsenal have won six successive home games against Newcastle United, all in the Premier League, scoring 18 goals and conceding just five.
- Newcastle have lost 11 of their last 12 league matches against Arsenal, with the exception their 2-1 win at St James’ Park last season.
- The Magpies’ solitary victory at the Emirates Stadium came in November 2010, when Andy Carroll scored the only goal.
- Arsenal have won all six of their home league matches in 2019.
- The only other English league clubs yet to drop a home point this calendar year are Manchester City and Sheffield United (prior to the Blades’ game on Saturday).
- A victory would be the 10th in a row at home in the top flight for the first time since a similar sequence from December 1997 to May 1998.
- Mesut Ozil has scored three goals and provided an assist in four league games against Newcastle.
YAMA Predicts
Arsenal 2 – 0 Newcastle
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