Gunners looking for return to form against London rivals Chelsea

Arsenal versus Chelsea, since the Blues ascension into the top tier of football, it has been a matchup that is tumultuous as they come. The matchup is always met with equal parts anxiety and anticipation and with Chelsea getting the win on matchday two, Arsenal are hoping to show they’ve come some way since then.

As for our visitors, they remain in the hunt for a Champions League spot, holding a six-point edge over the Gunners in the fight for top four. However, for their part, the attack has started to become inconsistent while their defensive unit stays solid.

As for Arsenal, since the end of their 22-match unbeaten run, they have largely played in fits. Defending remains our biggest issue but in attack, the Gunners are devoid of any sense of creativity which has hurt our ability to create chances against opponents.

Our opponents

Chelsea under Sarri are operating in a 4-3-3, using short passing to build their attacks (92% of all combined passing). Typically, they like to come down the left-hand side (through Hazard) with 47% of their attacks featuring on that flank.

Defensively, Chelsea look to counter-press their opponents trying to win the ball higher up the pitch to launch their attacks. Against Newcastle (who played Chelsea quite aggressively), even with Chelsea holding onto 65% of the possession, they won 18 successful tackles and 13 interceptions.

The reason for the diminished attacking threat for Chelsea has as much to do with substandard performances of their centre-forwards (Morata and Giroud) as it does with Sarri exploring Hazard working centrally as a false 9.

Dropping deeper in the attacking third whenever Chelsea have the ball, Hazard is now looking for additional attacking possibilities – either through link-up play with anyone of Kovacic, Jorginho or Kante, or playing through-balls to wingers who get behind space as a CB presses to cover Hazard’s movement.

It hasn’t exactly worked but given the solidity in defence Chelsea have, it has allowed them to experiment to develop and gain effectiveness.

Movement of Hazard off-the-ball as a false 9 intended to draw centre-backs to him and open space for wide players to drop in-behind.

When last we met

On matchday two, Arsenal were coming off a season-opening loss to Manchester City. They opened the season with two of the hardest fixtures they could’ve hoped for. However, there were glimpses of hope to be had as well as signs of the trouble we still see six months into Unai Emery’s first season.

Defensively

Arsenal’s defensive issues are all too familiar and the first time out against Chelsea was no different. Against the Blues at Stamford Bridge, the home side found it easy to find space and create chances.

On the day, the defensive unit were poor in position on the field and poor communicating across the line to identify and hopefully nullify threats. Additionally, they were passive in defence, failing to pick up threats early enough and snuff them out.

The scenarios we see here from week two and the mistakes that we made aren’t too dissimilar to what we are seeing now.

At first, Arsenal’s shape in this frame looks good. The defensive line is intact, as is the midfield line and everyone seems to have picked up a man. Mesut Ozil also does well to press Rudiger to close the passing lane to Kante.

However, once Rudiger passes the ball to Jorginho, everything freezes from an Arsenal point of view. It’s as if they feel because they’ve done the first part of the job, it’s job done. Ozil stands off Jorginho giving him the time to pick out either Barkley or Pedro in the massive space in-behind. This is created as Mustafi and Sokratis both follow Morata’s highlighted movement.

This could have been prevented if Arsenal kept doing their job. If Ozil pressed Jorginho, the defensive line stayed together, communicated better and dropped back to follow runners, the outcome could have been very different.

Offensively

In attack, however, Arsenal proved a threat to Chelsea, Alex Iwobi and Mkhitaryan posing threats to Chelsea’s defence.

Emery doesn’t use wide forwards for his attack, he prefers them to tuck in supporting the centre-forwards and the attacking width comes from the full-backs/wing-backs. In the case of the two goals Arsenal scored in week two, both came from Iwobi and Mkhitaryan being more central and then “ghosting” in-behind the Chelsea back-four.

Chelsea’s right-back leaves a massive space in-behind for Iwobi to take advantage of, once Monreal plays him the ball.

Fast forward

The 3-2 loss in week two wasn’t that difficult to take. It was early in the season and facing off against a side that was a season removed from winning the title was going to be difficult for the new manager.

However, after six months and half-a-season, we are better equipped to gauge where Arsenal are, and the signs aren’t pretty.

Against West Ham this past weekend, Arsenal looked the worst they have all season. Playing a 3-4-3, Arsenal lacked any real bite to their attack as the lacked a creative outlet to support the dual attacking threat of Aubameyang and Lacazette.

In fact, without any creativity either from Özil or Ramsey, both forwards were seen dropping deeper to get the ball and try and create on their own. Additionally, Granit Xhaka, who’s been solid alongside Torreira, was forced higher up the pitch, which limited the ability to transition to the attack when Arsenal were trying to build up play.

Defensively, we saw many of the same issues we saw back in week 2 of the season. With Emery using the wing-backs as part of his attack, it left spaces behind that can be attacked and with poor communication and positional awareness, it resulted in the only goal of the game against us last week.

That is a big worry against a team like Chelsea whose attacking threats, are quicker and more likely to hurt an opponent that isn’t organised.

Hope for Arsenal

The picture being painted isn’t one that comes with an abundance of confidence. However, there is a way for Arsenal to get at Chelsea.

First, Emery has to go back to aggressively pressing and counter-pressing. Right now, it’s too easy for opponents to play out against us as the press has been apparently abandoned for a more cautious approach.

Chelsea had issues last week with the aggressiveness of Newcastle’s pressing and it forced the Blues into opting for long diagonal balls trying to break the press. With Hazard playing as a false 9 and the rest of the forwards not that good in the air, it’s a tactic you can easily set up to defend against.

Additionally, in week two, Arsenal hadn’t yet fully realised the potential of Lucas Torreira. He has been a pitbull in the midfield and his play has had the residual effect of getting the best out of Granit Xhaka.

The final cog in the chance to beat Chelsea may go against Emery’s better judgement. There is the obvious internal conflict between the boss and the highest paid player in the squad.

Mesut Özil gets a lot of stick for his performances against big-six sides but there is not denying his creative talent and ability to influence matches. Against Chelsea, Özil has 12 appearances for 981 minutes with three goals and one assist and one performance that has resulted in him being awarded the Man of the Match award.

Arsenal’s greatest strength is their attack. They have players in the attack that can give any team a problem. However, if they aren’t supported with the creative influence behind them, then they wind up being useless, as we saw last week versus West Ham.

Emery has to abandon the cautious approach in search of balance and try to force Chelsea onto the back-foot. He has to revert back to the pressing game and giving his team a chance with its most creative player. If he doesn’t and decides to sit back, and depends on overlaps and counter-attacks, he is likely to see a continued poor run from his side.

Players to watch

Arsenal: Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang. We’ve got to get him the ball with consistent levels. Simply put, without him scoring, we’re not as potent as we were.

Chelsea: Eden Hazard. False 9 or on the wing, he is a constant threat with the ball at his feet.

Injuries and suspensions

Arsenal: Mkhitaryan (foot), Holding (ACL), Welbeck (ankle)

Chelsea: Loftus-Cheek (back)

Form (last five)

Arsenal: WDLWL

Chelsea: LWWDW

Goals scored (average per game)

Arsenal: 2.18 (home)

Chelsea: 1.90 (away)

Goals conceded (average per game)

Arsenal: 0.91 (home)

Chelsea: 0.80 (away)

What the coach says (courtesy of arsenal.com)

“The victory, firstly. Victory first, but I think we are doing two different performances, at home and away. We want to find the balance between the two moments. First, we are going to go game-by-game and Saturday, we are at home and I think we are doing very big matches with big confidence with our supporters and I want the same spirit and the same performance on Saturday against Chelsea. It’s a difficult, tough match and I think it’s a good test for us also. We wanted to go into this match with three points difference in the table, but our defeat at West Ham doesn’t give us this possibility. But Saturday, I am looking forward to playing this match because I want to look at my team, our team, playing with a good performance and also to show our supporters we can do more and we can do better than we are doing away.”

Match officials

Referee: Anthony Taylor (19M, 62Y 0R)
Assistants: Gary Beswick, Adam Nunn
Fourth official: Craig Pawson

Broadcast information

BT Sport 17.30 BST

Match facts (courtesy BBC.co.uk)

• Chelsea’s only defeat in their past 14 league games against Arsenal was a 3-0 loss at the Emirates Stadium in September 2016 (W8, D5).
• The Blues can become the first visiting team to win six competitive fixtures at the Emirates. They are currently level with Manchester United on five victories.
• Premier League games between Arsenal and Chelsea have produced 13 red cards, more than any other London derby. However, they are the only clubs yet to have a player dismissed in the top flight this season.
• Arsenal have lost four of their last eight games in all competitions, having been unbeaten in their previous 22 matches.
• The Gunners are undefeated in their last 10 Premier League home games (W8, D2), with their last loss coming against Manchester City on the opening weekend of the season.
• They are unbeaten in their previous 12 Premier League London derbies at home, winning the last five. Their most recent home derby defeat came against Chelsea in January 2016.
• Arsenal have kept just three Premier League clean sheets this term – only Fulham, with two, have a worse record.
• Since signing a new contract in January, Mesut Ozil has started 18 out of a possible 35 Premier League games, contributing three goals and two assists.
• Bernd Leno has kept just one clean sheet in his first 15 Premier League starts – only three goalkeepers (Gavin Ward, Julian Speroni and John Ruddy) recorded none in their first 15 starts in the competition.
• Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been directly involved in 20 goals in 18 Premier League home games for Arsenal, scoring 15 and setting up five.

YAMA predicts

Arsenal 2 – 2 Chelsea.

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