Arsenal’s Title Hopes Rest on Their Defensive Fortress

For decades, Arsenal has been synonymous with attacking brilliance—a club built on free-flowing football, dazzling combinations, and breathtaking goals. But in the 2024/25 season, defensive resilience, not offensive firepower, is their defining trait.

With Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli sidelined until late March, and Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus out for the rest of the season, Arsenal’s title ambitions rest on their ability to shut down opponents rather than outscore them.

But history suggests this may not be a weakness—it could be their biggest strength. Some of the greatest Premier League title-winning teams were built on elite defensive records, and Arsenal’s current numbers put them in that company.

This article examines how Arsenal’s league-best defense can carry them to the title, how their defensive metrics compare to historic champions, and what they must do in the coming months to win their first Premier League trophy in 21 years.

The Best Defense in England (and Maybe Europe)

Arsenal’s defensive improvement over the last two seasons has been historic. From a side that conceded 43 goals in 2022/23 to one that is on track to concede fewer than 28 this season, they have built the most disciplined and structured defensive unit in the league.

Here’s how Arsenal compares to their closest rivals this season:

Key Defensive Statistics (Premier League, 2024/25 Season)

Source: Data compiled from FBRef and WhoScored,  (2024/25 season as of February 2025)

Key Takeaways:

• Arsenal concedes fewer open-play goals than any other team (13).
• Their xGA (0.65 per game) is the best in the Premier League, proving they don’t just concede fewer goals—they allow fewer quality chances.
• Fewest shots on target faced per game (9.5), meaning they control matches without allowing sustained pressure.

This defensive stability is exactly what title-winning teams need—and history supports that claim.

How Does Arsenal’s Defense Compare to Past Premier League Champions?

Historically, the teams that win the Premier League are not always the highest-scoring—but they often boast the best defense.

Let’s compare Arsenal’s projected defensive numbers this season to the best defensive title-winning teams in Premier League history.

Best Defensive Records in Premier League Title-Winning Seasons

Source: Historical defensive records from Opta Analyst and Premier League official statistics.

Key Takeaways:

• If Arsenal maintains this defensive trajectory, they will have a defensive record similar to Man City (2018/19) and Liverpool (2019/20), both of whom dominated their seasons.
• Chelsea’s 2004/05 record of 15 goals conceded is untouchable, but Arsenal can still have one of the best defensive seasons in the modern era.
• A great defense almost always guarantees a high points total—meaning Arsenal can sustain their title challenge even if their attack underwhelms.

In short, defense wins titles—and Arsenal’s numbers show they are on a path that aligns with some of the best title-winning teams in history.

The Gabriel-Saliba Wall: The Best Center-Back Partnership in the League?

While Arsenal’s defensive structure is well-drilled and tactically disciplined, the individual brilliance of their center-backs elevates them to another level.

Why Gabriel and Saliba Are Arsenal’s Defensive Backbone

• William Saliba: The ultimate modern center-back—calm, composed, and dominant in duels. He has the best pass completion rate among center-backs in the league, allowing Arsenal to build from the back with ease.
• Gabriel Magalhães: Aerially dominant and physically imposing, Gabriel leads the league in aerial duels won and blocks, making him the defensive anchor.

Together, they allow Arsenal to play a high line without fear of being exposed. Their ability to recover quickly, win one-on-one duels, and read danger before it develops is a major reason why Arsenal have the best defensive record in the league.

Final Stretch: The Key Fixtures That Will Define Arsenal’s Title Race

Arsenal’s elite defense will be tested in the coming months. These matches could determine whether they lift their first Premier League trophy since 2004.

Critical Upcoming Fixtures:

• February 26 – Nottingham Forest (Away): Third in the league, Forest are unbeaten at home. Arsenal’s compact shape must limit counterattacks.
• March 9 – Manchester United (Away): Always a tough trip.
• March 16 – Chelsea (Home): Chelsea are inconsistent but talented. Arsenal must control possession and force them into defensive errors.
• May 10 – Liverpool (Away): This is the toughest remaining match. Avoiding defeat at Anfield is essential for their title challenge.
• May 18 – Newcastle (Home): Newcastle’s defensive setup could make this a tense, low-scoring match. Arsenal must be patient and precise.

Winning at least 3 of these games and avoiding defeat at Anfield could be enough to secure the title.

Conclusion: Arsenal’s Best Shot at the Title in Two Decades

History tells us great defenses win championships.

Chelsea’s 2004/05 team, Manchester City’s 2018/19 side, and Liverpool’s 2019/20 champions all dominated defensively—and Arsenal’s numbers suggest they belong in this conversation.

Despite a depleted attack, Arsenal’s ability to control games through defensive superiority, limit opponents’ chances, and keep clean sheets means they don’t need to score a high volume of goals to win.

• If their defense holds firm, Arsenal can win their first Premier League title in 21 years.
• If their backline falters, history will repeat itself, and they will fall short again.

This is not just a title race—it’s a test of whether Arsenal’s defense is truly championship-worthy.

Their destiny is in their own hands. Now, they must defend it.

Table: Key Defensive Statistics (Premier League, 2024/25 Season)
Source: Data compiled from FBRef and WhoScored as of 20 February 2025.
Table: Best Defensive Records in Premier League Title-Winning Seasons
Source: Historical Premier League data from Opta, Sky Sports, and official club records.