Arsenal v Southampton; Premier League Match Preview
Happy New Year everyone. I hope you have all suitably recovered. Better still I hope our Arsenal have suitably recovered from their win on Saturday to have energy to play this game.
One of my key concerns with this Arsenal squad is energy level game to game. With the trip to Southampton coming so close to their game against Newcastle, it worries me that we may see at the very minimum a first-45 of prodding, slow football. That presents a problem in that if Arsenal haven’t scored by half-time and sit at a draw then it will likely give the home side hope that they can come out and nick something.
Southampton won’t resemble the side that Arsenal shredded 6-1 back in September. They’ve learned from their mistakes and play in a more disciplined fashion. While they still possess issues, I don’t think they will likely be torn apart as they were so easily last time.
Arsenal are putting on a good run of form at the right time. With the change in the calendar comes the real work. The race for the top-4 begins in earnest with this match. They possess a game in hand and still within a sniff of 3rd and if proper improvements are made I would even say that second is possible (I don’t see City doing any real business in January). First seems like a pipe dream and while I always hold out hope I’m not foolish enough to expect that big a collapse from United – unless he who shall not be named gets injured.
An Arsenal win would be their fifth on the trot. Something they haven’t done since they won 8 in a row from 29 Jan to 31 March last season. Then they had the proliofic leg of that certain Dutchman. But the reality is Arsenal aren’t missing his goals as much as you’d think. At the turn of the calendar year last season Arsenal had 36 goals through 31 December. As we move into 2013 Arsenal have scored 34 goals, have conceded less and own a greater goal differential. Sure, you can only imagine where Arsenal’s fortunes would be had they retained – him. But they haven’t and surprisingly they aren’t hurt nearly as much as you’d think.
Of course the fact remains, they need to do the business. The league is the picture of mediocrity and parity. Arsenal will achieve their minimal goal of Champion’s League qualification if they can maintain a level of consistency. The other’s will struggle to do so as well. But hey it’s a new year and with it comes new hope.
Players to watch:
Arsenal: Theo Walcott & Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Players who were both products of the Southampton youth academy. Both have been part of Arsenal’s resurgency and will look to impress on their return to St. Mary’s.
Southampton: Rickie Lambert. The 30 year old forward has taken to the Premier League and has already scored 8 goals for his team. He has proved to be troublesome with his strength and style of play. Arsenal Center-Backs will need to be on guard.
How the match should play out:
I don’t think you can expect this game to be similar to the 6-1 romp at the Emirates. Southampton showed a little of their premier league naievte in that match and there were too many 1 v1 situations that Ox and Podolski could take advantage of. As SOTON has matured into the Premier LEague season they;’ve improved defensively. Still they have their issues and should Arsenal come out with the front three they;ve been running out lately, then the speed the Gunners possess will likely cause the home side problems. Arsenal possess one of the best away records in the league. While their home form is slowly improving the away form has been solidly consistent. Arsenal will still try to create space with their speed and stretch out the gap between the midfield and back four. If Arsenal can do that they should experience success. The key will be to try and possess energy we knwo they haven’t been able to call upon when their are fixtures on top of fixtures.
Projected Lineups:
Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Diaby (thigh), Fabianski (back), Santos (stomach muscle)
Southampton: Lallana (knee) Clyne (test – knee)
Leading Scorers:
Arsenal: Walcott 8
Southampton: Lambert 88
Assists Leaders:
Arsenal: Podolski 6, Walcott 6
Southampton: Lallana
Last Meeting (EPL):
Arsenal: 6
Southampton: 1
Goals For:
Arsenal (away): 1.4
Southampton (home): 1.4
Goals Against:
Arsenal (away): 0.8
Southampton: (away): 1.2
Last Five:
Arsenal: WWWWL
Southampton: DDLWL
Goal Difference:
Arsenal: 18
Southampton: -11
Match Official:
Referee: Lee Probert Matches 12, R1 Y36
Broadcast Information:
US: ESPNDeportes/ESPN3 12:30 PM EST
UK: SkySports 1 17.30 GMT
YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 3
Southampton: 1
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When Wenger said Arsenal will be busy this window it’s likely to be as much if not more about players leaving than any coming. There is a lot of unproductive clutter at Arsenal and has been for a wee while now.
Some of it is due to Arsene losing faith in the player (so take your pick, either a bad buy or a player who flumped under Wenger’s management), others are players who never actually developed the way he hoped, and others are the crocks.
Here are eleven players that produce zero or close to it for Arsenal. Most have been frustratingly lacking and unproductive for several years, many five or more years.
Bendtner – never dev
Chamakh – flumped
Gervinho – flumped
Park – waste
Arshavin – flumped
Rosicky – crock
Diaby – crock
Denilson – never dev
Djourou – never dev
Squillaci – flumpy waste
Santos – waste
We need to shed them… but we can’t move them. This is partly due to our ‘equitable wage structure’ – which means we overpay underperformers. This is where the Wenger-view of the world is lacking. Arsenal’s wage bill is not that different to Manchester United’s and yet there is a critical difference in the makeup – in the detail. Manchester United pay their stars big but pay water carriers and younglings much more modestly to Arsenal. The big names at MU get the lions share while the rest stay on lesser sums and stay they do because they’re playing for one of the worlds glamour clubs.
That, in my mind, is how it needs to be. It’s the only way it works. Wenger’s egalitarian world is a nonsense anywhere, but particularly in top level football where all the players are paid outlandish amounts and the top guys are motivated by knowing they’re the premium earners. In one sense it’s true players don’t go for the money – they go for the perception of being more valued. So Wenger’s egalitarian view can’t work over the longrun – and it hasn’t. The cream always want to know they’re being treated like cream – so a relatively flat remuneration framework can’t work in an elite environment. It’s contrary to the very nature of the context. The Messi’s, Ronaldo’s, Henry’s, Rooney’s always get an inflated salary. Then comes the proven experienced echelon of players – the guys that may not be uber stars but are proven performers. Of course, even within those tiers you have sub-tiers whereby some positions are more highly valued and paid than others.
So, all that to say, we need a remuneration structure that rewards performance not hope or potential. And equity quite frankly is a non-issue in such a rarified field. Realigning the wage structure with help mitigate the future buildup of deadwood that can’t be moved on. As for the current lot (see the list above), Arsenal will have to pay a price (in pounds) for Wenger’s whacky egalitarianism – just as we’ve paid a price onfield in poor performance and non-competitiveness.
I have to agree… I believe its possible we do NOT bring in a single player.
We might sign Theo, and “attempt” to shed some of the dead weight you noted above.
As you stated, the problem is WHO WILL TAKE THEM?
Wenger said Squillaci and Djourou are likely to go soon, IF THEY CAN FIND A PLACE TO GO!
That’s been the problem all along with the likes of Bendtner, Denilson, Squillaci, Chamakh, Arshavin… they make so much, that nobody wants them on their current salary…
I actually think Djourou could be a decent defender for a mid-table club… look at Senderos at Fulham… he’s played there for a few years, and is a regular contributor. Not a star, but he plays, and he plays next to Djourou for the National team!
It would be a prayer answered if we managed to get rid of any of the flotsam and jetsam…
and I just read CHAMAKH is possibly going to West Ham… let’s hope its a transfer, not a loan…
I think he could have moderate success at West Ham, as with Andy Carroll… they swing a lot of balls in and head in a lot of their goals… as well as punting it down the field and have players holding up the ball with their back to the goal.
It would be GOOD for Chamakh, and GOOD for Arsenal.
Let’s hope it happens.
Chamakh just confirmed. 6 month freaking loan…because we need that back.
windows open.
let’s see… Liverpool get Sturridge… Chelsea get Ba…
Arsenal?
Arsenal?
Arsenal?
I know, it takes time to complete deals, it doesn’t happen overnight…
and we only want to bring in “special” players, so as to not challenge any of the young
players to up their game if they want to play…
No Josh, not a fan of Manchester City at all. I’m neutral toward them.
It’s just good to remind oneself of the type of players that winning teams need.
I read today that Ferguson is wanting to stay on for a while yet. You have to admire that guy. There is no other manager quite like him. People forget that he has had to move with the changes in the same way Wenger has had to. The new rich – City and Chelsea, new ownership with onerous fiscal consequences, stars leaving – Ronaldo & Tevez, constantly replenishing and reshaping his squad. The guy is THE master.
Perhaps the defining question in understanding the difference between Ferguson and Wenger is not “what is success to them” but more-so, “what is failure”. For Ferguson not winning the league is failure, not winning anything is utter failure. For Wenger, failure is not achieving CL qualification – period.
It’s a mindset thing. Both want to win, but it’s the perception of failure that divides them. Wenger sets the bar lower – and that’s why he is slowly losing the fanbase. Fans know in their heart that Arsenal is a club that challenges for honours not CL qualification – Wenger is out of step, but he’s good at spin.
Arsenal and Manchester United are both powerhouses – they are on a different plan to City and Chelsea. Remove the financial backing that the new rich have and they would quickly revert to a Spurs/Everton level. It’s true Manchester United is ahead of Arsenal, and in large part it is because of Ferguson’s era. But Arsenal have all the fundamentals in place to compete in a similar manner. The difference is not financial it’s managerial. Manchester United is the standard and model to compare against – and they win despite the presence of the financially induced new rich.
But little will change until we have a manager who sees failure as ‘not winning’. Whilst we have a manager who sees failure as not achieving CL qualification then that’s the level we’ll hit – everytime.
“very limited team dynamic”
“no team-based” solutions”
“without a sense of team movement. What is the plan for making chances and exposing defenses?”
steve, i agree with you 100%. it’s arsenal’s biggest problem and has been all season long. in team sports, mediocre yet truly united teams typically fare better than a talented bunch of individuals. arsenal are a talented bunch of individuals and they’ve been exposed by lesser talented teams like bradford, olympiacos, swansea, and norwich. arsenal must realize it’s not so much about working hard as it is about playing intelligent football. i used to think it was just aaron ramsey but this season, it’s everyone. arsenal are the lakers of the bpl.
before the game, i was looking for the shaw/ox match-up. no contest. shaw owned chamberlain and if it were up to me, i would have pulled chamberlain before podolski. how many 2v1’s did sagna have to endure because of the poor positions this kid took up? even in attack, sagna was outnumbered. chamberlain is a talent, no doubt, but playing against his old team in front of his old crowd seemed a bit much.
after going a goal up against newcastle, arsenal seemed to adopt an approach of letting newcastle have the ball and trying to release theo on the break. it’s the only thing arsenal can do with theo leading the line. i know he scored the hat trick but he’s not the answer at center forward. like aaron ramsey, there’s nothing wrong with theo technically. he just lacks the craft to play striker as a little guy. he’s more michael owen than aguero/tevez/defoe. there’s a reason owen never played up front alone.
Back to reality….
Like I said after the Newcastle match, I didn’t think there was much we could build upon and there wasn’t. An unchanged squad grinding out three points would have been nice. Instead, we were fortunate to get one…. Which matched our shots on target for the night. Alas, our best player, Own Goal, really didn’t get the service he deserved….
Who shall we blame? The manager didn’t single anybody out AND he didn’t blame the pitch. I have no such hesitations. Our normal outlet guy (and my favorite player in the squad), Bacary Sagna, had another shocker, miskicking for the goal and almost scoring another (for Southhampton) from a corner which fell onto his knee. He will be dropped for the FA cup but then will he be sold in the window? Personally, I think that would be foolhardy, but the normal precision plus toughness we’ve come to expect from Sagna has gone missing and has been replaced by mistakes resulting in goals. It’s hard to even remember Bacary being at fault for goals before these last couple of matches, but now we’ve got several instances in the past 180 mins. Everybody has dips in form but his “Leadership-By-Example” (the only kind we have these days….) is a priceless quality that nobody else was able to muster on the day….
It might have fallen to Santi Cazorla, though it’s a lot to ask of a guy in his first season who usually gets a nice little break between La Navidad and Los Reyes Magos….Besides, he looked like he was wearing ice skates on the soaked pitch. Did AW bring on Ramsey just because he was wearing longer studs? No, of course not, it’s because he’s just signed a new contract, or maybe Rosicky (the only player who might’ve provided some real service) is now in the same bin with Arshavin and Chamakh or hurt again (like ol’ Abou…..)
You can’t blame the pitch and you can hardly blame injury or lack of leadership or much of anything else. This team just isn’t very good and adversity will almost always expose it. In my opinion there’s a very limited team dynamic so that when the individual moves break down or players have a “bad day” frustration builds and there are no “team-based” solutions. Too many passes are made under duress and without a sense of team movement. What is the plan for making chances and exposing defenses? Wilshere, for all his talents, began the day watching and hoping, did a bit of pushing in the middle of match and finished it (mostly) watching and hoping. What should he do? Giroud looked clumsy on the slippery pitch but better than Gervinho and Ramsey. The situation seemed made for a late Vermaelen winner, but he doesn’t do those anymore, and we could hardly force a corner late on. We should just be glad, Koscielny sold the push-in-the-back foul late on at the other end….
No mention of Theo. It’s the world’s most boring “will he or won’t he.” Latest signs point to yes he will and that will be good. After all, he’s such a nice lad, saluting the Southhampton fans as did the Arsenal ones three days before. No game ball in hand this time, however…..
Nor comparisons with Henry, who will not be re-joining for another curtain call. More serious business MUST be at hand (Adrian Lopez rumors being the flavor of the day)….
Happy New Year!
Yep, I dozed zzz… a lot of this game.
Where was the 100,000 pound a week superstar today? Utterly invisible. Theo’s not exactly a Van Persie at this stage is he?
I saw the Manchester City game. A few notable comments.
– Kompany is the Belgian we needed – a mobile ball-playing monster.
– Agüero is an uber-mobile striker who provided Walcott with a seminal lesson in how a quick small forward plays. Perpetual motion ducking and weaving in and around the box always sniffing.
When Wenger talks about signing only special players who will truely add to the team – I’m assuming this is the quality he’s referring to. Now players, not “might be good in 3+ years type players”. The irony is Kompany was relatively cheap and linked with Arsenal a lot…what happened Arsene?
Interesting comments today by George Graham on Balotelli that echoed my own. He acknowledged his ‘issues’ but said he’s exactly the type of player you keep. He’s special and you have the chance to turn him into a superstar once he settles (which even wayward guys tend to do like RvP).
kiwi, are you a closet city fan?
seriously, i watched city win with ten men the other day and they do play good football. aguero is in fabulous form right now. it typically takes a season and a half for a player to adapt to the premier league and aguero is there (so is gervinho). notice theo, aguero can play anywhere on the front line and create/score goals. so can tevez and messi and they don’t complain about it.
burns my blood to know that arsenal sold the best player in the premier league to manchester united. after the champions league matchday 2 game, van persie alluded to a ball that rooney played to him where he scored. he complimented rooney not only on the quality of the ball but the vision to see the right ball to play at the right time. it seemed to be a shot at the arsenal team he just left, suggesting that arsenal don’t have that type of player anymore. before arsenal had fabregas and before him, bergkamp. alex song stood in the gap last year but who’s arsenal’s geppetto now? sorry i got off point but, like i said, it burns my blood.
the other Arsenal showed up today…
Let’s see… playing the 18th place team, who has the 4th worst goals against in the league…
We create virtually NOTHING all match. Our only goal comes on an “own goal”… and Soton has a good goal ruled offside, that should have won them the match.
Wenger takes off Cazorla, our only real creative midfielder, for…. Ramsey?
giving us Wilshire, Ramsey and Arteta… and takes off the speedy Ox, for… Gervinho.
Nice.
At least this underlines, ONCE AGAIN, how deficient we are talent wise…
LUCKY to get a point today. Sneezy made a few good saves…
same old Arsenal.