Arsenal v Swansea, Premier League Match Preview

You have to wonder where we are going to go with this match. The hope is that based on Wednesday nights performance there was foundation that can be built upon. There is hope that lessons were learned and the Arsenal can move forward in the league and regain a modicum of dignity. Or they could fall flat on their faces. Either way, the Gunner faithful will be watching the trip to the Liberty Stadium hoping for the former.

The current state of Arsenal has left a rather large portion of the fan base feeling rather cynical. Can you blame them? There hasn’t been a lot to hoot and holler about this season or even in the last few years. Whether Arsenal are well and truly in a state of decline remains to be seen. A few years out of the top (ala Liverpool) would signify decline. Arsenal and Arsene Wenger are a victim of his their own recent successes. The expectations are high for this club and anything short of competing vigorously in any competition is considered failure or as some stipulate – a decline.

But is it really?

There are realities to be faced. The fact remains whether Wenger or the board admit it, the way the club has been run since opening of the Emirates, has changed. The focus is to adjust to a fully self-sufficient model while trying – trying the key word there – to remain competitive.  No one will come out publicaly and say that but its pretty clear that is the reality of the club. And in that case they’ve been fairly successful.

Additionally, the manager trying to sell us at times on substandard talent has stubbornly held on to players too long while its clear their form and ability was clearly below par. Wenger has shown himself to be stubborn in so many areas that it has been to the detriment of the club he reshaped and loves.

I’ll worry about our club’s decline if this year we finish out of the top 4, don’t re-arm and continue to stay out of the top 4 for a period of 2 or more years. Right now I am not willing or able to call time on Arsenal’s status as a big club.

That’s not to say I don’t clearly see the issues that befall this club. I’ve written on them all vociferously. But I also clearly see talent. Talent that would likely be better if it had some additional better talent (ie, World class talent) available to be a game changer. Right now that doesn’t exist.

But in a season where we are clearly the worst of our own memories, we’re still in the hunt for the coveted champion’s league spots.  And our losses as gut wrenching as they may be aren’t because we’ve (for the most part) been played off the park. I can think 2 or 3 occassions where that has happened.  We’ve been the masters of our own demise. We’ve beaten ourselves with stupid individual errors. Don’t get me wrong a loss is a loss. We deserve to lose when we make those mistakes. But those individual mistakes have cost us I believe to be around 15 points.

So what’s this mini rant about?

Maybe I don’t know. Maybe I am just tired of feeling jaded and for the last 10 games I am going to support the team. I know we have a long slog (of our own making) and it starts against our current bogey team in Swansea. But Swansea aren’t invincible and Wednesday if it showed us anything that when pressed into it, this squad can beat anyone – even the club marked as the best in Europe right now. Just a reminder – Bayern Munich hadn’t lost in 24 matches prior to that loss and hadn’t failed to score at home since 2009.

People want to write that off as Bayern not being “mentally” right or taking the night off. And while they did look lackluster, they still managed and astounding 21 shots (8 on target) and failed to score against a keeper who hadn’t played in 13 months and a defense with the slowest German on earth and according to some one of the worst Arsenal defenders in Laurent Koscielny.

That Arsenal squad that just went in there did have spells of frustration. Awkward passes out of bounds and errant passes but there was always a dig deep, concerted effort to make amends, get the ball back and keep Bayern at bay. The effort was reminsicent of the good ol’ days.

And if it’s capable of doing it then. Then the squad are capable of doing it now. In 2008/2009 when Aston Villa were looking likely to pip Arsenal to the top 4, the Gunners went a long spell without Cesc Fabregas.  In order to maintain the chase and vie for the top 4, Wenger compacted the team. They sat back and defended more, looking more likely to nick goals then score them at will. But that’s Wenger had to do in order to tighten things up. It worked. It set a precedent.

It was part of what Arsenal did at the Allianz. There were no high lines. No room for runs behind the back 4. The squad had been tightened up.

This is what Arsenal need to do if they want to get back to the top 4. They need to buckle down and focus as if every game was a final. Swansea are a good team, with quality players and a solid manager (my pick to take over for Wenger one day). But they are also in consistent. They win one and lose the next. Look at their last five. They have a cup. Good on them. But as some cup runs have shown the minute it is won, complacency sets in and their performance against West Brom this past week should cast a wary eye on how Swansea can be just as poor as they can be good.

Whether any one will willingly admit it, Arsenal still possess one of the better away defensive records in the league. Hell, statistically they are still the best defense away from home in the league. They need to put it all together and now is the time.

Wenger looks like he is trying to make his charges get that into his skull. Arseblog today wrote and in his podcast that the manager’s decision to bench Szczesny and Vermaelen on Wednesday was a brave decision. I agree. If the message hasn’t gotten in to them and the whole squad – it should and it’s clear – poor performance will not be tolerated. I suspect we still won’t see either starting this weekend. I suspect they will be given time to show that they deserve to be back in the squad.

Look, I don’t presume to tell anyone how they should feel about Arsenal. And this “match preview” is less of a preview and more of a gut check for where I am with this team right now. I love my club but I have issues with my club, all sounds like a perfectly normal relationship to me.

I personally think that we’re going to see an upward tick. I reserve the right to amend that shortly after the match ends. And if we go in the opposite route I suspect we will, then I will criticize where criticism is deserved or praise just as conversely.

Projected Lineups:

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal:  Gibbs (thigh), Wilshere (ankle), Podolski (ankle), Sagna (knee)

Swansea: Chico (ankle), Agustien (thigh), Taylor (match fitness), Situ (Achilles).

Leading Scorers:
Arsenal: Walcott 11, Santi Cazorla 11

Swansea: Michu 15

Assists Leaders:
Arsenal: Podolski 9

Swansea: Pablo 5, de Guzman 5

Last Meeting (FA Cup):
Arsenal: 1

Swansea: 0

Goals For:
Arsenal (away): 1.3

Swansea (home): 1.9

Goals Against:
Arsenal (away): 0.9

Swansea: (home): 1.4

Last Five:
Arsenal: LWWWD

Swansea: LWLWL

Goal Difference:
Arsenal: 21

Swansea: 4

Match Official:
Referee: Jon Moss. Matches: 11. R1 Y51 6Pk

Broadcast Information:
US: FoxSoccer Channel 11:oo AM EST

UK: Highlights on MOTD 1 BBC

YAMA Prediction:

Arsenal: 2

Swansea: 1