Arsenal’s ever diminishing margin of error
Well, who saw that coming? You know what I mean. Getting beat at home to Wigan. I got to be honest, I did.
Yeah, I know my match preview said a 2-0 to the Arsenal. But something in my gut told me we were going to stumble. And it started with the Wolves game. The way we approached the game after going up 2-0 was exactly the same approach we had after being up 2-0 to Aston Villa.
In each game once we got going, we decided to start being, shall we say, cute? What it really is really is a lack of focus, drive along with some hesitancy and fear of making a mistake (thank you Chris Toronyi)
Well, like we did after Aston Villa we approached our next opponent in a hap hazard way and the result – an Arsenal loss. First against QPR and then against Wigan. And in both cases the team that won had all those things that aren’t ‘cute’ (focused, driven, no fear, etc.)
In both occasions Arsenal got beat, and deserved to get beat. I know some watching the Wigan match felt that because we had more shots, more possession and didn’t delay the game, we deserved to win. Let me put an end to that. You deserve to win if you put more goals into the net. We didn’t, thus you can argue we deserved to lose.
But that’s not what I want to discuss. With their tenth loss of the season, the Gunners are not leaving very little room for error as they close out the season and fight for Champion’s League qualification. The other qualification chasers each have a game in hand to Arsenal’s 34 played. Should Arsenal lose to Chelsea and Tottenham and Newcastle get positive results as well, the point difference is 2 points with each of the chasers having to play one more game than Arsenal.
To paint the worst case scenario, loss on Saturday and the chances of actually finishing sixth in the league are greatly enhanced.
For all the hard work that has gone into pulling off 9 wins from 11 and keeping the team in chase, it would all be for naught if they should start to resort back to Arsenal form from years past (you know of the form of which I speak.)
The room for error was hard enough as it was with the start to the season we had. But as soon as things got settled and the team started to gel it was easy to see that there was something here – a new spirit, a new approach and a new focus. Unfortunately, a lengthy train of injuries meant another slide, this time in January, the margin for error decreasing even still.
And then on that day that Tottenham came to town, down 2-0 in the first 20 minutes, the gunners had finally decided enough is enough. With 7 wins in a row, the let down against QPR was expected and in my opinion served to refocus the team for the task at hand. The win against City was monumental for so many different story lines. But what it showed, at least then, is that this team can bounce back from bad performances.
Now, with Saturday and a date with Chelsea on the cards, Arsene Wenger and the lads need to find their mettle yet again. And Chelsea will be there for the taking, if and only if Arsenal approaches the match with the right approach and mindset.
Chelsea’s midfield is devoid of any real creativity and their attacking power is limp compared to Chelsea teams of the past. They have reverted back to playing teams on the counter like they did before AVB tried to revolutionize the squad. But their defense as we’ve seen this year, is older and slower, and will be without Branislav Ivanovic.
Again, if Arsenal play to their strengths, they can put another CL contender to the sword. They’ve done pretty well against their challengers since the turn of the year. They’ve beaten Spurs, Liverpool and Newcastle and took Chelsea to the map early in the season. They can do it. They can do it against good teams too. They just need to focus.
Like I’ve said, there is no longer any room for error. We can’t depend on our competition on dropping points. Spurs run is easy. Newcastle, not so much and Chelsea meet us between two matches against Barcelona and have an FA Cup final on May 5th. But it’s asking a lot really for us to depend on other teams to do our deed for us. Arsenal have to take care of business for themselves.
Take care of business and the rest takes care of itself. Failure to do that results in, well I am not up for apocalyptic forecasting – for now.
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I have to think that the match Chelsea played against Barcelona… HELPS US in terms of the carry over affect / fatigue factor…
they HAVE to rotate some of their better players… because they leg at
Barcelona, is TUESDAY.
If they fancy their chances of taking down the best team in the world, (Barca, not us!)… they’ll rest and rotate…
and up 1-0, that means that have everything to play for there…
I think if we can WIN or DRAW, we should be OK for a Top 4 finish.
You can’t go with “the schedule” because you have to win the games, but I think Chelsea and Newcastle have more difficult schedules… Tottenham is in the absolute worst form, but their schedule is full of cupcakes.
I don’t like our midfield without Arteta, and I haven’t liked our defense in many years… I have no idea what to expect on Saturday… from either team…
as Chelsea’s road form hasn’t exactly been stellar.
BTW DAG,
If you are not aware, the EDIT function has not been working for some time now.
The biggest question for me is whether we have someone who can step up to the plate and take over the Arteta role for the remaining games. Arteta is the perfect foil for Song as he plays tremendous defense from the front, retains ball possession and distributes very accurately to the wingers and AM.
Ramsey has yet to show that nous, especially from a defensive and ball retention viewpoint. I don’t think Rosicky has the engine to do so for 90 minutes,Benayoun is ineligible for the Chelsea game and it’s a big ask for a young OX.
Seeing that we would welcome a draw in this game we could go with a 4-2-3-1 with Song and TV5 as the DM’s and any combination of Ox/Ramsey/Rosicky/Gervinho and “Chicken Brain” Theo making up the 3. It’s aint gonna happen but WTF, it’s nice to dream sometimes.
While on the dream couch, another alternative would be to go with a 4-4-1-1 formation with Song,Ramsey,Rosicky,Diaby/Santos in MF, Theo/Ox?Gervinho in the hole and RVP up front.
Aaaah, the life of a coaching wannabee beckons :)
@Caribkid, you just put Diaby in the line-up.
ummm. when has he been OK’d to play? and he’d only be good for about 12 minutes before he went off injured yet again!
With yesterday’s result at Stamford Bridge, things have become very, very interesting….Chelsea have created a fantastic opportunity to pull their asses out of the fire and save a season almost as bad as ours. If they can get a goal and keep Barca to only 2 they would be in two cup finals (and actually good enough to win the FA Cup)….. Combine that with winning at our place, sneaking in for a top 4 spot and Roman A won’t have to spring for another “name” manager, with Di Matteo assured of at least starting in the role next season….
MAIHTSI (Much as I hate to say it….) Stag is right….(though I said it first)….A draw is a perfectly fine result come Saturday (kickoff, for me is at four, freaking, forty-five in the morning….) Can we play for one? No we can’t, it’s not the Arsene-al way….
That said, I’m not sure that Chelsea can either. The thing that has separated Man United from the rest over these past several years is their ability to play with BALANCE and DISCIPLINE. The talent they have is not the best, but they play their roles and always serve the team and thus the result which is needed. It doesn’t ALWAYS work out (witness the failure to draw at Basel….) but players who cannot stay focused on the task at hand are replaced by ones who can.
Can we (they, Arsenal….) muster a similar focus?
It will be a big test for our defense, but luckily, we have our best defender, Laurent Koscielny, back in the fold. His yellow in the Man City game was soft, but it was also a mental mistake, which he (and his partners in the central three, Sneezy and Verm) are also prone to make. If Drogba is rested, Torres (or Kalou or Sturridge) MAY fail to punish those…. The superior policy would be to avoid the mistakes in the first place.
It COULD be possible….But our 4 defensive midfielders, Song, Ramsey, Santos and Sagna must do likewise, and frankly, if they’re baited into thinking that outscoring Chelsea is the way to go, I wonder. Ramsey is prone to giveaways so Song needs to stay at home and give him outlets, rather than going all Songaldinho then lumbering back and giving away pointless free kicks…. Yesterday, Meirles, Ramires, Obi Mikel and Ramnires were extremely resolute and disciplined, (and the latter was brilliant to make the goal for Drogba) but maybe there will be some rotation there as well from Di Matteo. Michale Essien seems a fairly nice option, I have to say…..
A final point of interest from yesterday’s match….Chelsea, by concentrating on Messi and (to a lesser extent) Cesc and Iniesta, allowed the (best) chances to fall to Alexis Sanchez, who could not convert them. The injury to David Villa looms large….Imagine what a healthy RVP could add to that team, maybe the deal is already in place after hitting the hookah on Monday night (or early
Tuesday)….
It WAS a great performance from Chelsea’s back 5. Petr Cech was very solid and Cashley and Cahill both looked worth the little bit of extra money that Arsenal wouldn’t spend on them. Given that a disciplined (and flawless) defensive performance (by Arsenal) is highly improbable, my hope is that Chelsea cannot replicate theirs and that we surmount whatever mountains (who’s the ref?….) which get set in our way. The entire season, our summer transfer business (attempting to retain our Captain….) and next season, I fear, all depend upon it….
@HighburyTerraceSteve,
The thing is that Di Matteo is already talking about resting key players
on Saturday. Drogba likely will rest which means the misfiring Torres will
start. Juan Mata is also likely to rest.
The thing is that the win at the Bridge is going to give Chelsea hope they can
get into a final – and rightly so – of the trophy Roman covets most of all.
The key for Arsenal – who slots into the Arteta role? I liked Chmaberlain in that
role versus Milan. Much more direct and purposeful than Ramsey and his jitters and
off-target shooting.
The thing ism if Chelsea think they have a real shot at the Nou Camp, they may be thinking we can qualify for CL by winning the cup and still finish 5th or 6th.
I am not saying this is what is going to happen but it is something of the narrative that the pundits are talking about right now.
@DaAdminGooner,
But the question is whether Wenger will play him or not. The Ox and Rosicky ahead of Song completely annihilated Milan in that first half. Although I think Wenger will keep the Ox as an impact sub and play Ramsey instead. Which is a shame, as on current form the Ox is so ahead of Ramsey
@DaAdminGooner, That’s a lot of
things (to be) is…..(or something)…..
I think what you’re saying is that by rotating, Di Matteo
puts all the pressure on us, which is a trap….because (as
Stag and I keep saying) a draw would be fine…. Rotating is
a GOOD thing, (unless it backfires, i.e. losing to us AND
Barca….) because it shows that Chelsea is poised to fight
on multiple fronts (this year and next)…. Are we?
Arsenal have created this pressure by losing too many (10!!)
matches. Single points at places like Blackburn, Fulham,
Swansea and QPR would make up for the three we dropped
Monday at home. Our team (long term) needs to be better AND
deeper so that we don’t find ourselves in so many pressure
situations. If weaspire to “compete” on multiple fronts
(which, after all, beyond match-day revenue) is the whole
point of trying to make the CL places….) we must do better.
Finally, (and if you or anyone else, is actually still
reading the dreaded “2nd reply” colors….) Arseblog, makes
the strong case about why Ramsey will be playing in Arteta’s
spot on Saturday. Ox would be the choice if we “needed”
the 3 points or lots of goals as we did vs Milan (Ramsey was
hurt for that one, I think)….between that and the “pecking
order) it’s a done deal. He might, however, get the start
over Gervinho, who needs to maybe lose the extensions and
embrace the baldness, giving that Benayoun is “loan tied,”
or whatever you call it….
Big match, looking forward to your preview….
@HighburyTerraceSteve, HTS, duuuude….
If Koscielny is our “best defender”… we are completely F*CKED… and maybe we are.
The thought of him trying to cover Drogba, brings back thoughts of Senderos trying to…
no chance.
Arteta OUT for final 4 matches…
we could really struggle without him.
at the moment, I’d take a draw with Chelsea.
A win would be just massive, as Chelsea will be riding very high after an beating Barcelona.
I hope they are tired from chasing the ball all over the pitch!
Same old same old under Wenger. We only play well against teams that actually want to play against us. Unless you’re Swansea of course. Any team that parks the bus, crams midfield and presses us hard all over the pitch can often get a victory against us. Wenger’s got no plan B. He is a great attacking coach but long exposed now as a poor defensive one. We are doomed under this Manager to be a leaky bucket, constantly getting filled up with new strikers, new midfielders but always rubbish at the back and leaking goals. 43 goals conceded this season can you believe it. Wenger out.
@Wombledin, LoL.
you can’t say that on here Wombi!
They’ll get you man…
I’ve said the same sort of thing for years… you win trophies with a strong defense, and
Wenger has never really been interested in that… just interested in playing pretty football.
When teams rough us up, or don’t allow us to play, its like its a crime against footballing humanity, in the eyes of Wenger…
I mean, how dare Wigan waste time … trying to stay up by making sure they get points against us… they should let Arsenal play the Arsenal way…!!
Chelsea showed today what a disciplined team with proper defensive organization can do against all odds. Arsene’s tactical naivety will never allow us to reach the top until he brings in other coaches who can instill the same type of discipline into our squad.
@Caribkid, Amen Carib…
if the other team doesn’t score, YOU CAN’T LOSE!!!
Barcelona were all over Chelsea… like when Arsenal have all the possession and chances against
lesser opposition… and we lose.
It will be 2 excellent matches in the 2nd legs of the CL… high drama…
but until we actually concentrate on DEFENDING… brining in proper DEFENDERS who’s first and second priority is to actually DEFEND…. we aren’t likely to win a damned thing…
I’d love to see George Graham as an assistant coach! LoL.
but Winterburn might be just fine… never going to happen, but we can hope.
I’d bet the first and 2nd orders of offseason business are OFFENSIVE players… we’ll be luckily to address defense at all …
Think we ve somtin in comon,i saw it folowing what happen 4rm villa to QPR but put it off since we were home. Now no thanks to AW, since any formation dat works he sticks wit and not being dynamic, approaching every game the same way
http://goonerholic.com/ see teh ‘Holic Bar’
51 years today….
Tbh, this arsenal team post 5-2 has turned up in the big games, so maybe that gives us some relief. But the ridiculous thing is, we still haven’t learned our lesson against the “smaller” teams and we switch off at vital moments when we appear to be cruising. It seemed only Vermaelen, Rosicky and Yossi really tried against Wigan but hopefully we’ll put 100% in vs Chelsea and the other 3 games, because that loss against Wigan should (hopefully) have hammered home that we cant be complacent at all until the season ends
yes, its scary how close this fight for a Top 4 spot now is…
A draw would be a decent result against Chelsea, but we simply can NOT afford to lose, as it means we don’t control our own destiny.
ummmm.
if you think we’re going to lose, you should probably predict that!
otherwise, its just being a “homer” who predicts wins when you don’t really think we’ll win!