Match Preview: Arsenal v Cardiff City; A Welsh Rare Bit

Arsenal are about to enter into their toughest part of the season, with matches coming fast and furous through the holiday season. At one point those matches include back to back to back against Everton, Manchester City and Chelsea. Forget what you’ve heard about November, it’s December we need to be wary of. And that’s why this match Saturday in Cardiff is essential.

Arsenal need a cushion going into that complex run of fixtures. Arsenal need to come into this match with all the zeal of playing against one of their title contending opponents. They can ill afford to take the foot off the pedal so to speak. And it won’t be easy.

Cardiff have been impressive at home capturing the scalps of Manchester City there and earning a well deserved draw last week against United. In other words they aren’t going to exactly roll over. However, this may will be their toughest test at home simply because Arsenal will look to exert dominance via the midfield – yet again. Without any real ability themselves to do so, they likely will set up to absorb Arsenal’s pressure and get the ball up to Fraiser Campbell on a counter.

It’s a little opposite to how they played against United. But United’s midfield isn’t creating a sense of fear in any opponent, and Makay had his charges do exceptionally well in going toe to toe with United. The problem with that approach against Arsenal is as we all know that Arsenal more than any other team in the league is so comfortable playing in this manner that it would be near suicide for any team without a solid midfield to so.

People are bigging up the results Cardiff have managed at home and rightly so. They are making their home a hard place to play. Not to underestimate them, because as the Premier League shows, on any given day, an opponent can take you regardless of their table position. However, if Wayne Rooney in the dying minutes of the match decides to shoot rather than pass the 2-2 draw likely is a 3-2 United win and the hype of Cardiff is not the story. The Manchester City match you likely could play 10 times and 9 times City is going to come out on top.

Again, it’s not to underestimate the opponent. They’ve been impressive but they also tend to let up a lot of shots. Their defensive isn’t very mobile and they’ve also allowed the first goal in 4 of their 6 home matches. We all know that this season, except for the Aston Villa match, when Arsenal score first they win. If Arsenal manage that first goal then I like Arsenal’s chance to come out with the win.

In the past that would seem an illogical statement to make but in Arse2Mouse’s post match reivew of the 2-0 win over Southampton (found here), Tim talks of now feeling a sense of confidence when it comes to Arsenal closing out matches. I agree with that sentiment. There are moments you subtly wonder but overall the intense sense of dread that we’ve all had expecting Arsenal to piss away a lead is no longer a prevailing thought.

No, Arsenal seem better focused and preapred to hold a lead – even a 1-0. Except typically this season 1-0 becomes 2-0 mid way through the second to close it out. And even if an equalizer is gotten, Arsenal seem intent on finding a way to get back to the lead. Even down to United Arsenal were a Niklas Bendtner busted nut away from equalizing.  The point is this, things have changed and are changing and whilst I would likely look at this in the past and think it’s one we should win but will probably draw, I now think its more likely that we’ll win.

We’ve managed to address test after test, week in and week out this season. Last week we passed it against a very determined (and better than Cardiff) side in Southampton. We also went out and did what we had to do in the Champion’s League. Again, things have changed. I get the desire to want to think pessimistically but you won’t find it here. Heck, I will go on a limb – let’s say the result does go negatively against us – I am still thinking optimistically about this team becase (here is that catch phrase again) – things have changed.

We need this match and we’ve shown when we need something from a match, that we can get it. When we lost to United the disappointment was keenly felt. Not because we lost but because we should’ve walked out of there with something. Expectations for this team are different.  No, in the end we will play Cardiff with all the respect they deserve – they’ve done well at home but this is a new time for the Arsenal and they need to start creating some cushion space heading into the conjested December fixture list.

How the match should play out.
Arsenal will still be without what I think is Wenger’s preferred lineup – one that features Theo Walcott out wide. Walcott is likely to still be on the bench as he is only just back which means that Jack Wilshere will get a start in the spot he did so well in in the midweek.  In the last few matches Arsenal look to snatch a goal early to open the match up and get into their comfort zone. It prevents the game from getting too narrow and forces opponents to expand their gaps. Last week Cardiff went toe to toe with United I think because of all the people missing from Moyes’ side. This won’t be the case, I think Cardiff will look to absorb the Arsenal pressure and hit them on the counter, which is why getting that early goal is going to so important for Arsenal. Cardiff will only grow in confidence if they can stretch a draw well into the opening half. In the end I still think Arsenal possess too much in the middle of the park for Cardiff to handle.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal. Aaron Ramsey. He comes home after singing with the Gunners in 2008. He is the league’s best player right now save for Sergio Aguerro.

Cardiff. Fraiser Campbell. He is putting on shoes at Cardiff and singlehandedly nearly won the match against United

Probable Lineups:

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal:  Diaby (knee),  Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee) Podolski (hamstring), Sanogo (back)

Southampton: No notable injuries reported

Leading Scorer:

Arsenal: Giroud 7

Cardiff: Campbell 3

Assists:
Arsenal: Giroud 4, Ramsey 4, Özil 4

Cardiff: Whittingham 3

Last Meeting (EPL):
Nothing prior to 2006/2007

Last 5:
Arsenal: WWWLW

Cardiff: LDWLD

Goals For:
Arsenal (away): 1.8

Cardiff (home): .8

Goals Against:
Arsenal (away): .8

Cardiff (home) : .6

Goal Differential:
Arsenal: 14

Cardiff: -6

Match Official:
Referee: Lee Mason (Matches: 7. R1 Y28 PK 1)
Assistants: Betts, McDonough
Fourth Official: East

Broadcast Information:
US: NBC Sports Network 10:00 AM EST

UK: MOTD 1 (highlights) Arsenal Player (audio only)

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YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Cardiff: 0

Match Facts (courtesy FourFourTwo)

• Cardiff have allowed their opponents more shots on target against them than any other team in the top flight this season (75).
• Arsenal are unbeaten in the last 11 matches in all competitions against Cardiff City, winning six and drawing five.
• Aaron Ramsey made 16 league appearances for Cardiff City before being signed from the Welsh side by Arsenal in 2008. He also made six league appearances on loan in 2011.
• Aaron Ramsey has made more tackles than any other player in the Premier League this season (57).
• Peter Odemwingie has scored in two of his three Barclays Premier League starts against Arsenal.
• Defeat against Manchester United at Old Trafford in Arsenal’s last away game ended a 10-match unbeaten away run in the Premier League (W9 D1).
• Cardiff City have won just one of their last six Premier League matches (W1 D2 L3).
• Only in 2007-08 and 2003-04 (30) have Arsenal had more points after 12 matches of a Premier League season than they have mustered so far this campaign (28).
• Only one of Olivier Giroud’s 18 Premier League goals has been scored outside London.
• Only one of Arsenal’s last 22 Premier League opponents has managed to score more than one goal in a game against the Gunners (Aston Villa, 3-1 in August).