Match Preview: Arsenal v Chelsea; Is there a recipe for Arsenal success?

Well, if we go by the general news reports and media prognostication, there is no need for us to play this match. In fact, Chelsea are so good this year forget the rest of the season, just hand them the title now and be done with it. That seems to be the common theme with the Mourinho enamored press these days.

But the funny thing about a season is that it seldom turns out like anyone expected. That’s why the matches are played and why seasons have to run their course.

That’s not to say Chelsea aren’t looking impressive right now. They have to be considered favorites in the early season. They are playing good football and showing their quality. However, they aren’t unbeatable and even with recent history Arsenal shouldn’t be cowed into thinking that its over before it’s begun.

Recent history has not been kind to Arsenal when playing Chelsea, especially when playing Chelsea teams managed by Mourinho. Arsene Wenger has yet to beat a Chelsea side managed by Jose. Additionally, the 6-0 drubbing at Stamford Bridge leaves a terrible taste in the mouth and leaves a lasting impression that Arsenal aren’t at that level.

Finally, our season hasn’t really been stellar. Highlighting our unbeaten run with only 2 wins in 6 is a little disingenuous. We’ve not set the league alight and we’ve yet to find our stride. But if we’re using history – especially recent history to cement Chelsea’s “inevitability” of winning this match and season, then we need look at Arsenal’s recent history to find inspiration.

Arsenal have faced off against the best team in Europe in 4 out of the last 5 years in the Champion’s League. Each team when their back was against the wall they went the distance. If not for a poor ref decision that saw Robin Van Persie wrongly sent off against Barcelona, Arsenal were poised to walk out of the Nou Camp knocking out the world’s best team – in their prime. They went into Germany and beat eventual European Champions, Bayern Munich on their own turf – emphatically and were only knocked out on the stupid away goal rule.

The point is when needed Arsenal can play with the best in Europe and get a result. There is no reason to believe that Arsenal can’t play against this good Chelsea side and get a result too.

Sure we have our issues. Injuries are once again thinning the squad. The lack of a true defensive midfielder isn’t providing cover for the back line. Top that off the team that has enough talent to be winning more than drawing just isn’t showing the energy game, game out to fill anyone with a sense of hope that we can challenge Arsenal.

It’s all true and they are factors to take into consideration for this match. But there are ways that Arsenal can win this match. The first has to be their pressing game. When Arsenal are successful against good teams they employ pressing that Pep Guardiola would be proud of. They hound players on the ball working to get the ball back, cutting off passing channels and winning the ball early to get the ball forward and run at the defensive back line.

Arsenal have to come into this game with a hunger to win the ball when they don’t have it. While Cahill and Terry are proving a formidable duo at the back, they don’t handle speed well. When you look at the win against Everton (5-3 in favor of Chelsea) – success came from running in behind the duo with speed and forcing them to adjust and chase. Using a frontline of Welbeck, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Sanchez with Özil tucked in behind them can and can help create those quick transitions that will put pressure on Chelsea.

Additionally, when Arsenal nearly beat Barcelona (before RvP’s sending off) they essentially put a big yellow bus on the pitch looking to hit the Catalan’s on the counter. If Arsenal aren’t going to press feverishly there is no shame in sitting back and looking to hit Chelsea on the counter. Again the front three just mentioned give you enough pace to really hurt a team on the counter. Wenger shouldn’t be afraid to sacrifice his possession game for a counter-attack game.

Of course there is the highly unlikely chance that both teams will set up to absorb pressure. If that’s the case then we are in for 90 minutes of looking at a ball sitting in the middle of the pitch – which may not be a bad thing.

The other thing for Wenger is he needs to be brave with the team selection. Jack Wilshere is the fan’s favorite to come in and replace Santi Cazorla alongside Mathieu Flamini. The primary reason is that Jack’s grit is supposedly better than Santi’s ball handling skills.

At least in my opinion this is a mistake. Putting Santi deep like he did in the midweek, gives us solid ball retention and ball passing from a deep lying area. Jack will undoubtedly be an Arsenal midfield legend but he a.) still holds on to the ball too long resulting in him giving it away, b.) still isn’t the smartest passer in the group and c.) that grit he has, in a match like this will likely result in an early yellow and the threat of a sending off. It simply can’t be risked. Cooler heads and silkier skills are needed here and as I’ve always said, this team is a better team with Santi Cazorla on the field than off it.

Wenger needs to be bold both in his lineup and his tactical decisions. In my opinion it’s the only way Arsenal come out of the bridge with a favorable result.

You will have noticed that we specifically didn’t spend any time talking about playing against Cesc. It was intentional. He is not the story here. Arsenal needing a win or a draw is the story. Cesc plays for Chelsea – he is where he is and that’s that. This is as many characters as we will dedicate to him. YAMA is a proud member of the “STFU about Cesc Brigade.”

Players to Watch:
Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. The midweek hat trick will have launched the boys confidence sky high. But on one level he needs to control that and take his play up again. If he makes smart runs at Cahill and Terry he can be a problem.

Chelsea. Diego Costa. Many said it would take him time to acclimate to the Premier League. If he hasn’t acclimated, I hate to see what he’s gonna do when he does get accustomed to the league.

Probable Lineups:

Arsenal 4-2-3-1 Chelsea 4-2-3-1

Injuries & Supensions:
Arsenal: Arteta (calf), Ramsey (hamstring), Sanogo (hamstring) Debuchy (ankle) Giroud (ankle) Monreal (late test) Gnabry (fitness) Walcott (fitness)

Chelsea: Drogba (ankle) Ramires (ankle)

Head to Head

Match Officials:
Referee: Martin Atkinson (5M, 21Y 0R)
Assistant Referees: Mullarkey, Child
Fourth Official: Moss

 Broadcast Info:
UK: Sky Sports 1 14.05 GMT
US: NBC Sports Network 9:05 AM EST

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal 2 – 2 Chelsea

Match Facts (courtesy FourFourTwo)

• Didier Drogba has scored 15 goals in 15 appearances against Arsenal in all competitions (including Emirates Cup).
• Arsenal have lost just one of their last 14 Barclays Premier League games since defeat at Stamford Bridge in March.
• The last time these two sides met was Arsene Wenger’s 1000th competitive game in charge of Arsenal and turned out to be his heaviest defeat (0-6).
• Jose Mourinho has never lost as an opposition coach against Arsene Wenger in any competition (W6 D5 L0).
• Arsenal have won away at Stamford Bridge more often than any other visiting side in the Barclays Premier League (7).
• The last five Premier League wins Arsenal have enjoyed at Stamford Bridge have all seen the Gunners come from behind to win.
• Arsenal have won none of their last 14 Premier League meetings against Chelsea, Man Utd or Man City (W0 D7 L7).
• Former Gunner Cesc Fabregas leads the league with six goal assists and has 76 overall ranking him seventh in the all-time Premier League list.
• Arsenal and Chelsea have both recovered six points from losing positions this season, the joint-most in the Premier League.
• Chelsea have scored with 26% of their shots this season, the best chance conversion in the Premier League.
• Arsenal have conceded 199 goals in Premier League London derbies while Chelsea have conceded 198