Match Preview: Arsenal v Chelsea; Premier League Match Day 35

The good news for Arsenal? Well, perennial thorn in the side, Didier Drogba won’t be in the lineup when Chelsea visit the Emirates? The bad news, Chelsea are confident after their 1-0 win over Barcelona in their Champion’s League semi.

Had Arsenal won on Monday against Wigan, this match would not be as important to me as I think it is now. However, with Newcastle, Chelsea, and Spurs all having a game in hand, dropping points would allow them to close the gap further. Only Newcastle have a serious run in towards the finish. The others, not so much. So to me its maximum points or nothing.

I have sensed in the last two seasons that the tides have been turning in the match up of table top titans. For the last few years it has always been Chelsea eeking out the win. Usually, by some sort of Drogba skill, luck, magic or combination of all three. However, last seasons tie at the Emirates was an epic tie that saw our Arsenal completely out-play, out-hustle, out work and how many other outs you can think of Chelsea. The pressing game Arsenal employed in that match created mistake after mistake for the visitors and led to 3 glorious goals. The loan goal Chelsea did score flattered to deceive as the tie had already been decided.

Fast forward to this season. At the time, Chelsea were helmed by promising prodigy manager, Andre Villas Boas. Try as he did, he could not get Chelsea to change its ways into a free flowing attacking side. Not so long as he had the likes of John Terry and Frank Lampard in the squad. The high-line attacking style is not their type of game. And in the end they paid for it dearly. They were completely over powered by Robin Van Persie. With one particular shot nearly taking Petr Cech’s hand off.

Arsenal come into this tie winners of 9 of their last 11 and before the loss at home, winners of 5 straight at the Emirates. They’ve not allowed more than 2 goals to be scored by an opponents on their home soil working with an average of 0.8 goals per game allowed at the Emirates. Chelsea have only 1 of their last 7 on the road. While their cup performances have been solid, their league play even after the departure of AVB has been sporadic at best.

Still this is a tie that always requires work by either side that wins it. It is never easy and the score – with the exception of the tie at the Bridge – is usually low and tight.

For the most part Arsenal have a a full squad to pick from with one exception (outside of Wilshere and Mertesacker of course) – Mikel Arteta will miss the remainder of the season with an ankle injury. This is a devastating blow. He has been instrumental in Arsenal’s success. He is an influential, creative, and dynamic, midfielder. He has been visionary with the ball at his feet and when he is at his best, has been Arsenal’s midfield engine. When on his set-piece skills are largely unmatched in England and he possesses a fierce shot like the one that won the City match. Arsenal are going to have a hard time replacing that.

But they are going to have to. And it’s a decision a lot of Arsenal fans are waiting to see. Conventional wisdom says Wenger will likely opt for Aaron Ramsey. Ramsey could move to forward of the midfield triangle with Rosicky rolling into the Arteta role. The problem here has been Ramsey’s form. Full of promise, Ramsey is just not delivering with any consistency if at all.

The other possible option is dropping Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain into the midfield like he did against Milan. Chamberlain was amazing in that match. Going so far as to win the club a penalty. He is strong and direct and is on the same trajectory for Arsenal as Jack Wilshere.

Whatever, the decision it will be a big one and could mean success or failure.

When you look back at the match at the Bridge we did not have one fit RB and Koscielny featured in place of Sagna or Jenkinson. For today’s match Kosicelny, arguably one of Arsenal’s best defenders this season, will be back in the CB role with a fit Sagna. Sagna will need to rediscover his consistency as he was hardly at his best against Wigan.

The left side is a toss up as both Santos and Gibbs are fit. If Wenger opts for width to get behind the Chelsea defense he may opt for Gibbs. If Wenger wants some more creativity, then it would be Santos. Santos if you remember had a garish first half against Chelsea in the last match (who didn’t) but came back for the second and was instrumental in the second, even netting a strike.

The importance of this match can’t be understated even though some supporters I’ve talked to think it will be an easy win. I don’t share that sentiment and neither does our captain.

“We have to win, it’s as simple as that, and I can promise you that we will go for it”, Van Persie told Arsenal’s matchday programme.

“We’ve proved that we can perform in the big games against top teams, and it’s up to us to show it again.

“Everybody is looking forward to it, and to bouncing back from the Wigan result because we need to put that right. We have everything that it takes to put in another very good performance.”

“Chelsea have picked up considerably in recent weeks and had a great result against Barcelona on Wednesday.

“They defended unbelievably well and were very strong on the counter-attack, with Didier Drogba having a really good game. At times they defended with eight or nine men, but you can hardly blame them for doing that against Barcelona.

“If they put in a performance like that on Saturday, it will be hard for us – but it will also be interesting to see how they approach today’s game in the middle of two massive Champions League fixtures.”

Arsenal have done very well this year coming back after defeats. They need to muster that again and turn in another solid performance. Anything but, and well this difficult season will get a little more difficult.

How the Match Should Play Out:
It’s an interesting thing to think about. Chelsea are likely to be tired. Arsenal aren’t much likely to changer their style of play. So it is very likely that Arsenal will come out quickly to try and establish their game. An early goal by the Gunners would be important for Arsenal. It would force Chelsea to abandon their counter-attacking style and play more on the front foot. If Arsenal can do that then the game could be theirs. Arsenal have shown that they have an ability to outlast a team as matches wear on. Chelsea are going to rest a lot of players and with the Champion’s League trophy the one Roman covets more than anything else, their eyes are turned towards it meaning they will want to preserve their strength and not get into a running match with Arsenal. They will sit back much like they did against Barcelona and absorb the pressure. Overall, though I really do think that Arsenal are finding  differently mentality and identity when having to play well in crucial games. It think they do it again.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal. Whoever fills the Arteta role.  Little did we know back in August how important Arteta would be to the success of this team. But when asked today whom I thought was Arsenal’s MVP, I went with the Spainard. Whomever fills that role has some big shoes to fill.

Chelsea. Fernando Torres. The misfiring £50 million signing, gets a chance to try and prove the doubters wrong. With Drogba sidelined Torres will be called on to try and find the back of the net. With the possibility of Drogba being out for the trip to Spain – well he better find his shot soon.

Projected Lineups:

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Wilshere (ankle) Arteta (ankle) Mertesacker (ankle) Wilshere (ankle) Frimpong (knee) Benayoun (ineligble)

Chelsea: Ivanovic (suspended – 2) Luiz (hamstring) Drogba (knee) Romeu (ill)

Leading Scorers:
Arsenal:  Van Persie 27

Chelsea: Lampard 11

Last Meeting (EPL):
Arsenal: 5

Chelsea: 3

Goals For:
Arsenal (home): 2.1

Chelsea (away): 1.4

Goals Against:
Arsenal (home): 0.8

Chelsea: (away): 1.1

Last Five:
Arsenal: LWWLW

Chelsea: DWWDL

Goal Difference:
Arsenal: 24

Chelsea: 18

Match Official:
Referee: Mike Dean (Matches 26, R3 Y48)

Broadcast Information:
US: ESPN2 (ESPN3.com) 0745 AM EST

UK: Sky Sports 2 1245 BST

GAMEDAY CHAT: It’s Open!!!!!!

www.youaremyarsenal.com/gamedaychat

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Chelsea: 1