Match Preview: Arsenal v Everton; A real 6-point affair
It’s a traditional 6-pointer. Arsenal win and they’ve at least locked up top 4 for another season. Lose to Everton and well, the Toffees with a game in hand might be favorites to nip the Gunners to the cash cow that is Champion’s League football.
In a season when everything looks so bright through January and part of February, Arsenal look a team in need of the end of season heroics that have defined the last few seasons. Surely, the Toffees have hard matches left to play and after this the Gunners have matches against teams you’d expect them to fair well against but still – momentum and psychology are a big part of this sport and tomorrow has to weigh heavy on each team.
This is all too familiar territory for Arsene Wenger and the Gunners. For the last two seasons they’ve had to charge to the end to insure the minimum expectations of the club are met. For Roberto Martinez its something new. At cash-strapped Wigan he won the FA Cup but still succumbed to relegation. This is not an arena he has been familiar with.
The opposition and Arsenal when you look at the stats are pretty close to each other. The saying goes “the table doesn’t lie” and when you look at the teams and where they are, it’s no wonder they are so close to each other.
Early thoughts were that as the season wore on, Everton would fall to the mid-table pack. But they’ve been a model of consistency and played some lovely football at times. They are less rigid then they were under Moyes and play an attacking style that makes even neutrals appreciate what they are doing.
Everton look to keep their opponents wide and not let their opposition have through the middle of the pitch. As Michael Cox of Zonal marking points out, Everton very rarely have their CBs and two central midfielders charging forward. This means that in transition, Arsenal are going to have to work outside-in. It’s not the staple of Arsenal football but it’s likely to be the best chance the Gunners have to create opportunities.
The draw to Manchester City should buoy the Gunners as for the second half they looked more likely to walk away with the win than their opposition. It’s worth point out that in that match Arsenal were solid at attacking the corners and creating chances by stretching out the defense of the title favorites. This means that it shouldn’t be a foreign concept when playing against Everton.
Since Everton won’t sit back and absorb pressure you can expect this to be a tit-for-tat, open match. The key will be to which defense holds its nerve. On the road Arsenal have shown that if they get scored on first, it can all go horribly wrong. They need to lock it down in the opening minutes and not allow chances to accumulate in the early moments of the game. They must control the game and when not on the ball they need to want it back quickly.
If Arsenal can open the scoring first, you would expect that they could manage to see the game out. When Arsenal have been at their best this season they’ve blended solid control of the ball, incisive passing with rigid defense. All the elements we’ve seen this season, maybe not all together for one defining moment but they are certainly capable of doing it.
It will be interesting to see what Wenger does with his lineup. Not many seem to be fans of the Arteta, Flamini midfield option. However, it worked quite well last week. The key is that one or the other has to sit back and not get to forward. When it has worked this is what has happened. Arteta was the weaker of the two last week and it would be interesting if Wenger decided to leave him on the bench with Oxlade-Chamberlain coming in and Rosicky coming back alongside Flamini. Still, it’s more probable that Arteta plays alongside Flamini forcing either Rosicky or the Ox on the bench.
Another concern will be for the left side of the field. As much energy as Podolski gives Arsenal in attack he isn’t the best in getting back to defend. This leaves the left open for exploitation and it’s what City did with frequency early in the match last week. We’ve slated Gibbs in at LB but the boss said yesterday he is having an ankle issue and could be out. The tandem of Monreal and Podolski worries me with the possibility of Mirallas crashing in from that side. This is where Wenger has to get his lineup right.
Arsenal can take heart though that the bench is likely to be a strong one only because Aaron Ramsey is back in the squad and set to feature as a sub. Wenger seems to have been playing some “mind games” as he mentioned last week, that he was still at least a few weeks away from rejoining the team. But he clearly rejoined the team earlier and figures to feature on the bench.
The hope is that he truly is healthy and the class he brought to this squad from August through December isn’t too rusty. A talent like his can add an extra dimension that we sorely need and have been lacking since his injury on boxing day.
The worry is real. It’s not unfamiliar territory for us and that’s why I am still confident of a top 4 finish. This was exactly where we were last year. Albeit we are better in my opinion then we were last year. Grab the top 4. Grab the FA Cup and then finish building this team into title contenders. That should be the plan and it all starts with this match against Everton.
Probable Lineups:
Injuries & Suspensions:
Arsenal: Gnabry (knee), Koscielny (calf), Özil (hamstring), Walcott (knee) Wilshere (foot) Gibbs (test- ankle), Monreal (test – foot), Diaby (knee)
Everton: Jagielka (hamstring), Gibson (knee), Koné (knee), Pienaar (knee), Oviedo (broken leg), Traoré (hamstring) Barkley (test – calf).
Match Officials:
Referee: Martin Atkinson (22M 71Y 3R 8PK)
Assistant Referees: Kirkup, Bryan
4th Official: Jones
Head to Head:
Broadcast Information:
UK: Sky Sports 1: 13.30 GMT
US: NBC Sports Network: 8:30 AM EST
YAMA Prediction:
Everton 2 – 2 Arsenal
Match Facts (courtesy FourFourTwo)
- Everton have only scored more than once in one of the last 22 Barclays Premier League games against Arsenal.
- Arsenal have won just three of their last 10 Barclays Premier League matches (W3 D4 L3), taking just 13 points from the last 30 available.
- Everton have won their last six home matches
- The Toffees have lost eight and won none of the last 13 Premier League games against the Gunners, but the last three meetings have been drawn.
- Mesut Ӧzil’s last two goals have come against Everton, one in the Premier League in December and one in the FA Cup victory in March.
- Everton have scored first in their last five matches
- Everton’s record home (1-6 Aug 2009) and record away and overall (0-7 May 2005) Premier League defeats have come at the hands of Arsenal.
- Lukas Podolski has the best chance conversion of any player with 10+ goals in the Premier League over the last two seasons, scoring with 33% of his attempts.
- Arsenal have had loss/loss results in their last six away defeats against top-six teams
- No team has ever had 60 or more points after 31 games of a Premier League season and failed to finish in the top four. Everton and Arsenal have both exceeded this tally.
- 60 points after 31 games is Everton’s best ever total in Premier League history, surpassing the 57 they had mustered at this stage in 2007-08.
- Everton have had Under 2.5 goals in their last five matches against Arsenal
- Everton have won 15 points from goals scored in the final 10 minutes of matches this season, more than any team in the division.
- Arsenal are the only team in the Premier League not to have an opposition player sent off against them this season.
Give us your thoughts on this match? What do you think the lineup should be? How about the score?
