Match Preview: Arsenal v Hull City; Win and Advance

Arsenal’s Last 16 FA Cup encounter with Hull City gives the aesthetic purists another occasion to miss the point.

Much is expected of the Gunners when they face theoretically inferior opposition at home in this competition. Not only must they win, they must do so with ease and style.

So when the team did not glide past Premier League strugglers Sunderland in the 3^rd Round or Championship side Burnley in the 4^th Round, a large contingent of supporters and observers criticized the players and managerial staff. This reaction ignored the nature and objective of knockout competition.

In one-off contests, the only thing that matters is to win. That’s especially been the case for Arsenal in these early FA Cup rounds because the matches have come when the team hasn’t been in top form. Its January doldrums, featuring three weeks without a win, accompanied by the unfamiliar lineups fielded in the Cup, rendered style irrelevant. Victory was paramount.

The scenario is slightly different for Saturday’s meeting with Hull City. The Gunners have won two league matches in succession, including the inspirational comeback over league leaders Leicester City on Sunday. Rather than using the FA Cup to return to winning habits, Arsenal can now see it as a way to accelerate their momentum.

A victory can put the Gunners into a confident mood as they face a crucial and busy two weeks. First, there’s the visit of seemingly indomitable Barcelona in Tuesday’s Champions League Round of 16. The following Sunday, they commence a seven-day league gantlet at Manchester United, followed by a midweek home match against Swansea, and closed with a trip across North London to take on their traditional and (whisper it) title rivals Tottenham.

Hull City have an even busier schedule, having won at Blackburn on February 13^th and drawn with Brighton on February 16^th, and facing matches at Ipswich Town on Tuesday the 23^rd and against Sheffield Wednesday on Friday the 26^th.

As a result, manager Steve Bruce won’t send his first choice, Championship-leading starting XI onto the Emirates pitch on Saturday. “Making changes is the only option I’ve got,” he said.

This means the Tigers’ very good performances—producing the third-highest goals total while conceding fewer than all but one other team in the Championship—may not be all that relevant. One theme that might be worth watching on Saturday is Hull’s attention to high-quality shots on goal. They’ve scored more often than any other Championship side from shots within the opposition penalty area.

That’s been a focus of Arsenal, too. But the Gunners’ biggest threat inside the area, center forward Olivier Giroud, isn’t likely to play on Saturday. Instead, the speedy duo of Theo Walcott and Danny Welbeck, along with two players who’ve displayed a taste for the longer-range shot, Joel Campbell and Mohamed Elneny, will probably get starts.

It will be interesting to see how these players combine, particularly in the transitions from attack to defense to attack. With the speed of Walcott and Welbeck, Arsenal may well press Hull’s makeshift defense in an effort to force turnovers. That’s been an approach employed by manager Arsène Wenger at home, particularly when the right players are available and the opposition seems vulnerable.

Although this choice of style would be interesting, it won’t carry too much importance. What will matter on Saturday, as with all knockout matches, is the victory.

Key Matchup

Alex Iwobi against Hull City’s holding midfielders. The newest addition to Arsenal’s first-team squad has caught the eye in his appearances in this competition. Taking on the playmaker responsibilities from the Premier League’s top assist man Mesut Özil is a daunting prospect for a 19-year-old, but Iwobi has displayed the quickness of feet and thought to continue making Arsenal dangerous.

Despite manager Steve Bruce’s priority on rotating his outfit, Hull City will probably feature two experienced figures in the center of midfield, from the trio of Jake Livermore, Tom Huddlestone, and David Meyler. Livermore and Meyler, in particular, are physical, and Iwobi’s ability to deal with those attentions could determine how creative and effective Arsenal will be on the whole.

Where to Worry

Hull City possess wily wide players, including Sam Clucas, Sone Aluko, and Ahmed Elmohamady. They can dribble at isolated fullbacks and find teammates in dangerous positions farther forward. Arsenal will need to coordinate defensive coverage to minimize this threat.

Match Verdict

Hull will be diligent and canny defensively and will test Arsenal’s patience. In the end, though, the Gunners’ speed will lead to a similar outcome to those of the clubs’ two FA Cup meetings since May 2014, an Arsenal victory.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Theo Walcott. Walcott broke his scoring drought with the critical equalizer against Leicester City on Sunday. He’ll likely start this match at the tip of Arsenal’s attack, where his speed will concern the Hull City back line. If he and Danny Welbeck can synchronize their movements, expect at least one of them to hurt Hull with a goal.

Hull City. Nick Powell. The Manchester United loanee gets a chance to jumpstart his career at Hull City, and he’ll be looking to impress in his debut.

Injuries and Suspensions

Arsenal: Wilshere (leg), Cazorla (knee), Rosicky (thigh), Gabriel (thigh)

Hull City: Akpom (ineligible), Hayden (ineligible)

Probable Lineups

Arsenal: Ospina; Bellerin, Mertesacker, Chambers, Monreal; Flamini Elneny; Campbell, Iwobi, Welbeck, Walcott

Hull City: Jakupovic; Tymon, Bruce, Dawson, Taylor; Elmohamady, Meyler, Huddlestone, Aluko; Powell; Diomande

Match Officials

Referee: Mike Dean
Assistant referees: A Nunn, H Lennard
Fourth official: P Thierny

Broadcast Information
UK: BT Sport, 1245 GMT
US: FoxSports 1 and Fox Soccer 2Go, 7:45 AM EST

YAMA Prediction
Arsenal 2-0 Hull City

The Manager’s Take (Courtesy Arsenal.com)

 “They are in a strong position in the Championship, but the level in the Championship has gone up tremendously,” he said. “We saw it against Burnley, you need a top-level performance to beat these teams.

• This is the third consecutive season these teams have met in the FA Cup – Arsenal won the previous two meetings, including the 2014 final.
• The Gunners have won nine of their last 10 matches with Hull in all competitions, drawing the other.
• The Tigers have won once away to Arsenal in their history – that was a 2-1 victory in the Premier League in 2008.
• Arsenal have won their last eight FA Cup matches at home.
• Arsenal’s defeat by Blackburn in 2013 is the only time the Gunners have lost to lower-league opposition in 40 FA Cup games under Arsène Wenger’s management (W31, D8).
• Arsenal have been knocked out in the fifth round in two of the previous four seasons.
• Wenger has won 71 of his 99 FA Cup matches in charge of Arsenal, with 15 draws and 13 defeats.
• Alexis Sanchez has scored five goals in six starts in the FA Cup. His first goal in the competition was scored against Hull City in January 2015.
• Hull have won four of their last five away games in all competitions, including a victory over Bury at Gigg Lane in the last round.
• Hull have conceded just two goals in their last eight matches in all competitions.
• This is the third time in eight seasons Hull have reached the fifth round – they won on the previous two occasions in 2009 and 2014.
• On-loan Arsenal forward Chuba Akpom scored a hat-trick for Hull in the last round but is ineligible to play against his parent club.