Match Preview: Arsenal v Manchester City; EPL Match Day 15

There are so many witty titles for this clash between Arsenal and Manchester City I feel bad not leading with one of them. So in order to get them out of the way let me dispense with them right now – it is the Have’s vs the Have Nots. The money vs the paupers, Its it is the way Airways Derby, It’s London v Manchester. Did I get them all. Why don’t we rest on this. Simple. One. It is Arsenal versus Manchester City.

Before Chelsea managed to eek out a win against Manchester City this past Monday, I felt that this was a match Arsenal could win. I’ve seen a few of City’s games and while they have been in top form, there is something that doesn’t impress me. It could just be my normal disgust for a team like this (and Chelsea) that out and out tries to buy success rather than build it. But in watching them earlier on and especially against Bayern and Napoli I felt that City could be had by any team that had patience and pace.

City are a talented squad and you should be forgiven if you think Arsenal will lose this match. The names on this team are a who’s who of players that were cast aways to some extent. They’ve been assembled because they a.) are drawn by money in disguise as success and b.) they represent City’s best chance to buy a trophy. Yeah it’s harsh but on both accounts its true. If City didn’t have the money none of these players would be queing up to play in the blue part of Manchester that much is sure.

But for all the talent they have assembled they’ve been shown on a few occasions to be weak. Weak against speed and more recently weak defensively. In their last 8 games (or is it 9) Manchester City have failed to keep teams out of their net. There are defensive lapses aplenty for this team. And part of that is a reason we Gunners faithful are all to aware of – a focus on attack attack attack.

Their attacking prowess has lead to City being open to being had on the counter. They are pushing so far forward that teams that have pace are sitting back and out running them to the goal. Additionally, City are allowing a large amount of chances. Luckily for them it has only resulted in 14 goals (181 chances allowed). Better teams are converting their chances and it is resulting in wins.

Also City seem to have inherited an inability do well against set pieces. You only need see Chelsea’s equalizer on Monday and Napoli’s fist goal at the San Paulo. In both cases they lose players in and around the box. The Chelsea goal was a free header and against Napoli they say they knew about Canvani around the near post but the failed to pick him up and he slotted it home. Thomas Vermaelen must be salivating.

Still, as I said City are a dangerous club and their position in the table is no fluke. Arsenal can not let City get a lead early. The first 15 – 20 minutes are crucial. City like to score early and often. It is why their allowing goals is almost tolerated because they’ve usually jumped out to a 2 goal lead before the 20 minute mark.

Arsenal are going to need to play in a sort of hybrid of their normal attacking self. To some extent with 4 centre backs deputized to play they should sit back a little and look to move on the break. Chelsea playing the high line for the first 15 minutes were almost shredded against City. Playing the highline is going to be costly even though I think we play it better than anyone in the Premier League. Without Sagna or Santos’ speed on the wings it would hurt us playing the high line.

We have to be patient. Knowing they will try and create. Again a parallel to Arsenal of the past is the frustration and lack of answers City seem to have when things don’t go according to plan. They simply run out of ideas and Mancini just doesn’t seem to be able to address that on the fly. The other thing is City tires. Balotelli can’t play a full 90. He gets gassed earlier and if he doesn’t get a score early in the game. The running around basically gets him out of the game. He just doesn’t deliver as the game gets longer in the tooth.

It does seem like a perfect storm for Arsenal to win. But it can happen. Gervinho and Walcott are a threat to Richards and Zaballeta. Especially with Zaballeta playing out of position. Robin Van Persie is in form and given how many chances City do allow, there will be opportunities for Arsenal to score.

We’ve talked in the past about players stepping up on big games. The best of them is Laurent Koscielny. It shouldn’t go unnoticed that he has handled  quite well the world’s best player in Lionel Messi (it was Fabregas who gifted him the goal remember). He also did very well against Fernando Torres and has done very well against our nemesis Didier Drogba. His positional play allows makes him so good against even the most agile of players and I like the match up of him against either Balotelli or Aguerro. Obviously the question mark in the middle is Per Mertesacker. He plays well positionally but with his slow turning radius – let’s say it – if he’s not perfect positionally all day long he is going to have issues. The other issue is the fact that neither of fullbacks will are true fullbacks.

Regardless it has all the makings of a classic match. Which means it will likely be the equivalent of the 0-0 dud at the Emirates last season. The remarkable thing is this should Arsenal win, the gap between them and City will be 6 points. Given where we were only two months ago, it is nothing short of miraculous.

How the Match Should Play Out:

City absolutely have to go for it. They are at home and coming off a loss to Chelsea earlier in the week. They will be wanting to dispel any notion that they are going through a down turn. Arsenal will need to play solid and look for their opportunities in the counter. City do not have an answer for Theo Walcott’s pace and their propensity to struggle against pacy teams will be there down fall if they don’t jump to an early lead. The key for Arsenal is to play their game. Be solid in defence and let Koscielny and Song tie up their big guys. If Arsenal can manage to go into the half drawn with City, the chances for Arsenal coming out with a result are greatly increased. Should the match be drawn even after say the 65th minute look for Mancini to revert to form and play for the point. If he does that, advantage to Arsenal.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Theo Walcott. With Kolarov and Clichy out Zaballeta has been moved to left fullback. The odds were already in favor for Walcott having a good day they’ve improved greatly against Zaballeta. He just needs to play his game.

Manchester City.  David Silva.  He must be happy Cesc Fabregas is out of England and Jack Wilshere is injured. He is by far right now the most creative and dynamic talent in England. Now if he could only break into that Spain squad.

Projected Line Ups:

Injuries and Suspensions:

Arsenal: Wilshere (ankle)  Sagna (ankle) Gibbs (hernia) Jenkinson (back fracture) Diaby (hamstring) Santos (knee) Fabianksi (knee) Mannone (shoulder)

Manchester City: Kolarov (groin) Clichy (suspended – 1)

Leading Scorers:
Arsenal:  Van Persie 20 (15 league)

Manchester City: Aguerro 13 (11 league)

Last Meeting (Carling Cup):

Arsenal: 0

Manchester City: 1

Goals For:

Arsenal (away): 2.4

Manchester City (home): 3.4

Goals Against:
Arsenal (away): 2.6

Manchester City: (home): 0.6

Last Five:
Arsenal: WWDWW

Manchester City: LWDWW

Goal Difference:
Arsenal: 8

Manchester City: 34

Match Official:
Referee: Phil Dowd (Matches 11, R1 Y48)

Broadcast Information:
US: Fox Soccer Channel 1100AM EST

UK: Sky Sports 1 1600 BST

GAMEDAY CHAT: It’s Open!!!!!!

www.youaremyarsenal.com/gamedaychat

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Manchester City: 2

The Final Word:

When Manchester City management ad it’s players aid they had hoped to emulate Manchester City, I thought they meant on the pitch not in how they handle transfer dealings. Suddenly, the press is rife with reports that Manchester City believe they can get Robin Van Persie from Arsenal for around £30 million next summer.

It was quickly followed up by quotes from Joleon Lescott saying he wouldn’t swap any of City’s forwards for Van Persie but he would want Van Persie to join them. This sounds all too eerily familiar. No, it doesn’t resemble the Nasri saga but I wonder if Lescott and City management picked up the book co-written by Rosell and Puyol on how to effectively tap someone up and get away with it in 6 easy lessons.

If they go after Van Persie you also have to wonder about claims they want to try and adhere to FFP. They’ve been telling anyone who will listen that they intend to comply with FFP and have no intention of paying big money for players again. Going after Van Persie would seem contrary to that.  But hey if UEFA aren’t going to do anything City are free to continue playing Fantasy Football.

In the end, I don’t know if Van Perie will leave but I have a feeling if he does it will be for the likes of Madrid or Barcelona or maybe even Bayern. Robin Van Persie may want to get paid and deservedly so. But I think he has too much respect for the club who made him to go to a Premier League rival.

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