Match Preview: Arsenal v Manchester City; It Is and Isn’t A Title Decider

Let’s m make one thing clear – this IS and ISN’T a title tilting match. Got that? Let me explain.

It is a title tilting match if you expect like many others that at some point this season, Leicester will quit defying the odds and fall away. So either it behooves Arsenal or City to get maximum points in this match to get leverage over the other title chaser and close the gap to Ranieri’s charges.

It isn’t a title tilting match if you realize the fact that regardless of the outcome of this match, there is way to match time left in the season. Given that this whole season has been one of twists and turns – like Leicester’s rise and Chelsea’s fall – to expect a match in December to be a genuine title decider is a little ridiculous.

So what is it then?

This season will be won by the side that can manage a consistent run. By consistent run we mean 5 or more games won in a row. No draws and no “hiccups.” Just pure out consistency. With the fixtures coming fast and furious, this is one match that can help build consistency.

Neither side has wrapped themselves in glory. City who started off so hot have gone lukewarm. Starting the season off without conceding in goal in its first handful of matches it now has yet to NOT concede a goal.

Arsenal’s hopes looked shattered when they lost opening day to West Ham. We managed to right the ship only to lose to Chelsea (thanks refs) and lose to West Brom. Those wobbles upset the apple cart and showed some frailties – like looking beyond an opponent.

So here we are in December with both teams looking to establish some sort of consistent run.

Upsetting Stats.

I am for and against stats (you’re probably screaming at me to take a position on something at this point.) I see that you can determine trends and effectiveness with stats but trying to use stats to determine a game’s outcome or who will the season seems far-fetched to me. Because stats don’t have to take the field. They don’t get injured or play on water-logged pitches.

But there are some glaring stats that raise some concerns for me:

1. Arsenal have lost just one of 18 Barclays Premier League home games against City (W11 D6 L1)
2. City haven’t won away from home since September 12
3. City haven’t scored an away goal in the league since 26 September
4. Arsenal have only won at the Emirates versus City once in the last 6 matches

You look at those stats and wonder which of them will get broke. The pessimist in me says 1-3. The optimist says 4.

The squad depth worries some. The biggest miss is definitely Santi Cazorla. In Arsenal’s 2-0 win at the Etihad last season it was Santi’s ability to keep the ball down deep, beating pressure and transitioning to attack that was essential to Arsenal securing all 3 points.

Yes, not having Coquelin in the midfield to clog up space is a big miss but Santi’s transitional play is the bigger miss.

This means that in order for us to break the number 4 stat – Aaron Ramsey is going to have to be at his best – both in attack and more importantly in defense. Ramsey is going to have to be able to bring the ball out from the back and not do anything careless with it. My biggest criticism of the Welshman is his sometimes boneheaded decision making when he has the ball (back heels anyone.)

Attacking City

I’ve seen a lot of practical discussion on how Arsenal should approach this. I’ve seen some say sit back ala the Etihad last season and hit on the counter. I’ve seen others say an all out attack. However, I think the approach has to be a conglomeration of that.

Against Stoke City, the blues were put under pressure right away with speed and guile out wide. Both wingers attacked the full backs and in almost every encounter, they forced the full backs deep and were beaten one on one. Two goals were scored quickly from taking the ball deep to the right corner of the attacking third and crossing in with the striker making a run into the box.

With the likes of Walcott and Campbell likely to start out wide, this is what I’d like to see us do. City on Walcott’s side are either going to line up with Kolarov or Clichy. In either situation, I like Walcott’s speed against either of them. If Joel Campbell starts you have to give the one on one edge to former Gunner Bacary Sagna. However, where Campbell can beat Sagna is his run inside, looking for that splitting pass.

That leaves Olivier Giroud and his propensity for near post runs to get service from the wide players. Against a City central back pairing of Otamendi and Mangala you like Giroud in the match up – especially with his movement and strength. If Kompany where in the back you’d have to like City.

The key will be to be smart with the ball and be quick early on. Play with the ferocity and overwhelming speed we played with against United and the resoluteness of Bayern and Arsenal come out this with all 3 points. My good friend Jane Cavendish put it best – we need to play with the ability to switch gears collectively in this game – pressing, dropping off, possession and counter-attack. Think the ruthlessness of Jupp Heynkes Bayern.

Alexis Sanchez

I want him on the bench. While his robotic health may make him a shoe-in to start – I’d like to save his health for the fixtures coming up after this – when they are more congested.

Yes, Alexis offers us so much dynamically. And we could use him to turn this match. But let’s use him in reserve – last twenty minutes when it’s either a draw or a close one point lead. Bring him on to change the dynamic up completely.

Going back to the points made in the opening of this review – it is and isn’t a title tilting match. We need Alexis for the long haul. Let’s save him for it.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal. Petr Cech. Both sides will create chances. Whichever goal keeper blinks first will be the side that loses the match.

Man City. Joe Hart. See above

Probable Lineups:

Click to enlarge

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Arteta (calf), Wilshere (leg), Rosicky (knee), Welbeck (knee), Coquelin (knee), Cazorla (knee)

Man City: Kompany (calf), Zabaleta (knee), Fernando (hamstring), Nasri (hamstring)

Match Officials:
Referee: Andre Marriner (M9, Y37, R2)
Assistant Referees: J Brooks, M McDonough
Fourth Official: C Pawson

Broadcast Information:
UK: Sky Sports 1: 20.00 GMT
US: NBC Sports Network: 3:00PM EST

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal 2 – 2 Manchester City

Match Facts: (Courtesy FourFourTwo.com via Opta Sports

• Arsenal have lost just one of their 18 Barclays Premier League home games against Manchester City (W11 D6 L1), but have won just one of the last six (W1 D4 L1).
• Manchester City have lost 22 Premier League games against Arsenal, their joint-most defeats against any opponent (along with Chelsea).
• There have been five red cards in the last five Premier League matches between Man City and Arsenal at the Emirates.
• The Gunners have conceded just 11 goals in their last 20 Premier League games at the Emirates.
• Man City have won none of their last four Premier League away matches and failed to score in the last three in a row.
• The last time that Manchester City failed to score in four successive Premier League away games was in February 2006.
• Kelechi Iheanacho’s two Premier League goals this season have won Man City four points; the same total that Olivier Giroud’s nine goals have earned Arsenal.
• Petr Cech has equalled David James’ record of 169 Premier League clean sheets and needs one more to be the outright leader.
• Mesut Ozil has had a hand in 15 goals in 15 Premier League appearances this season (two goals, 13 assists) – he was only involved in nine goals (four goals, five assists) in 22 PL apps in 2014-15.
• Olivier Giroud has scored in eight of his last 12 Premier League appearances for Arsenal and has 11 goals in his last 13 appearances for the club in all competitions.