MATCH PREVIEW: Arsenal v Manchester City; the Airline Derby Resumes

In the last seven Premier League matches between Arsenal and Manchester City at the Etihad, the two teams have combined to score 28 goals. Matches between these two have also seen 808 completed passes, 30 shots and 36 dribbles. In other words these are two sides blessed with creative, attacking impetus which even the most neutral of fans should enjoy watching.

A lot of pundits will focus on last season’s 6-3 match, the teams have gone back and forth with each other since, Manchester City became nouveau riche. In 11 league matches since 2009, the two teams have drawn 5 times. The tie doesn’t usually end with the big results with the 4-2 in 2009 and the 6-3 last season are City’s biggest wins and Arsenal enjoyed a 3-0 win in 2010. Other than that, the wins have been 1-0. The draws have predominantly been of the 0-0 variety though the 2-2 at the Emirates this past fall was as exciting as they come (or worrying if you were an Arsenal supporter).

Out of the other “big” clubs, City brings worry due to its exorbitant wealth and riches in talent. However, as much as I do fret about facing City, they don’t fill me with the dread that comes when playing a United or a Chelsea. It’s likely down to the fact that you know for the most part Arsenal and City (especially under Pellegrini) will line up to play against each other.

Arsene was either extremely brave or crazy (depending on your perspective) when he went attack for attack in the 6-3 loss last season. Not many teams will go to that place and try to take it the light blues. But Wenger did and frankly the scoreline could’ve easily been greater on both sides. It was a case of which offensive set of players can score more and quickest.

Wenger needs to think this one out. He is blessed with many of his desired attacking options, however, defensively we are without Mathieu Debuchy and the calming influence of Mikel Arteta is likely gone for another 6-8 weeks.  Mathieu FLamini is fit but Francis Coquelin has been turning in stellar performances against lesser opposition, the question is, does he trust Coquelin enough in this match to start him. I am going out on a not so long limb and saying yes. He has energy and speed that isn’t there for Flamini, additionally, with the penchant for an ill-timed challenge overlooked for a moment, Coquelin does have an eye for a killer pass when needed that Flamini doesn’t have. Still it’s a tall ask for a kid whom a month ago looked likely to be on his way out permanently at Arsenal.

That leaves the back 4. Per Mertesacker despite his critics is much more solid when paired with Laurent Koscielny. With Koscielny providing the speed the back line needs, Mertesacker can play his positional game effectively. Where he gets into trouble is if he is left alone by a FB who has gone on a walk about. Something the young Calum Chambers got sucked into on a few occasions this season. On the left, the case can be made for Wenger to go with Gibbs over Monreal.

In the early season fixture at the Emirates, Monreal was victimized repeatedly by Jesus Navas. Part of the issue was lack of cover from the left wing and defensive midfielder but as solid as Monreal has been (I am one of his fans) I think Gibbs gets the nod to account for Navas’ speed. It’s not a knock on the solid performances of Monreal, just a tactical swap that needs to be considered in light of the opposition.

Then of course there is the choice on who starts in goal. Last week Szczesny found himself on the outside looking in while David Ospina took to the field to start his first Premier League match. He was largely untested in that and the FA Cup tie versus Hull. Wenger could look to the South American again giving him an opportunity to show he deserves more starts ahead of the current number 1. Everything is a tough choice heading into a match that has big implications for both teams.

Wenger showed in the first tie that going after City has its benefits. When you look at some other matches City has had difficulty in, it has been predominantly those teams that are willing to attack City. Bayern, Roma, West Ham and even the draw at the Emirates.  In that tie as in some of the others, City seemed put off by Arsenal’s aggression and speed at the Emirates. That match showed that Arsenal were as good as the Champion’s that day. It’s a glimpse of what the second match could be like but you could understand if Arsene decided to keep the intensity focused on defending and looking to hit City on the counter. I would like to see Arsenal cede possession in favor of a high pressure defending, forcing City into errors and having to chase Sanchez and Oxlade-Chamberlain in transition. With the speed on the wings, City can’t just hope to play Giroud in a highline, they’ve got to be aware that we can work the flanks and get behind them.

Arsenal need to do to City what everyone has done to Arsenal in the past – let them have the ball, be strong as a team defensively and hit them quickly, moving the ball down the pitch in 2-3 passes. Arsenal can’t afford tiki taka, death by passes against City. It’s that kind of play that usually spells doom for us. Given the results of Saturday Arsenal need to be smart and get a result or fall into a true fight for Champion’s League qualification.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal. Santi Cazorla. All eyes are on Alexis Sanchez, but an in form Santi Cazorla, is more critical to Arsenal’s success then Alexis.

Manchester City. David Silva. With Yaya Toure out City have turned to Cazorla’s Spanish compatriot to pick up the work load and he has done so with aplomb.

Probable Lineups:

Arsenal 4-1-4-1 Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Injures and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Welbeck (thigh), Wilshere (ankle), Arteta (calf), Debuchy (shoulder), Diaby (calf)

Manchester City: Nasri (thigh) Dzeko (match fitness) Bony (AFCON), Toure (AFCON)

Head to Head:

Seasonal Statistical Comparison of Arsenal (away) v City (home) – Stats courtesy Opta via various

Match Officials:
Referee: Mike Dean (15M 66Y 4R)
Assistant Referees: J Collin, J Brooks
Fourth Official: R East

Broadcast Information:
UK: Sky Sports 1 16.00 GMT
US: NBC Sports Network 11:00 AM

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal 1 – 1 Manchester City

Match Facts (courtesy Opta Sports via FourFourtwo)

• The last seven Barclays Premier League games between Manchester City and Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium have seen 28 goals scored.
• Alexis Sanchez has been involved in more goals (19 – 12 goals and seven assists) than any other player in the Premier League this season.
• There have been six red cards in the last nine Premier League matches between these two sides.
• Arsenal’s away form this season is patchy with four wins, four defeats and three draws in their 11 Premier League road trips.
• In contrast, City’s home form under Manuel Pellegrini has been impressive with 25 wins from 29 Premier League games under his stewardship at the Etihad Stadium (W25 D2 L2).
• Arsenal are the only team to score three goals at the Etihad in a Premier League game during Manuel Pellegrini’s reign – but this was in a 3-6 defeat.
• Only Chelsea (11) have won more Premier League games away at Manchester City than Arsenal (10).
• Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League matches (W9 D3 L0).
• Only West Ham (14) have scored more headed goals than the Gunners this season (8).
• Manchester City have conceded at least two goals in each of their last two Premier League home games. They haven’t shipped two or more goals in three consecutive home Premier League games since October 2002.

What are your thoughts on this match? Can Arsenal  take all 3 points at on the road to City? Who should start? What do you think the score will be? Let us know.