Match Preview: Arsenal v Stoke; Winding Down A Dreadful Season

Arsenal face off against Stoke City at home as this long and frustrating season begins its final jaunt to the end. We’ve spent the last few weeks playing the speculation game, wondering aloud what will happen in May when the final whistle blows. Now that the interdull is over, we can focus in what’s important – club football.

While the football for a good part of the season has been abysmal, I always look forward to the first match after the international break, because meaningingless friendlies and boring international friendlies hold nothing on a competitive league tie.

Arsenal have found some form winning three of their last matches. Okay, two of them were Europa league ties against Milan, but in all three Arsenal have looked at least like something resembling an Arsenal side.

We’ve been more fluid in attack, with midfielders seeking out space to receive the ball and attack the opposition deep in the final third. Movement across the front three has also improved and none was more telling of that than Auba’s goal against Watford and the perfect assist from Özil.

As we head into this match we also see the likes of Alexandre Lacazette and Aaron Ramsey come back and offer Arsene some thinking about what he is going to do with the lineup. While we could/should expect some rotation with a possible emphasis on the Europa League – I just don’t believe it Wenger has it in him to “give up” on the league, even though by all reckoning we aren’t getting the Champion’s League qualification through the top 4.

No, I suspect Wenger wants to go strong, at home and end the season on one of his traditional runs to close it out. Of course how that would impact our chances at the Europa League title remains to be seen but we can all guess at that.

With regard to our opposition, Stoke City. They come to the Emirates having failed to win their last 10 away matches and their last 7 total. They aren’t prolific on the road, manging a meagre 0.8 goals per match when away from home.  On the defensive side they’ve been equally as dreadful allowing 2.20 goals per game.

Comparatively, Arsenal are excellent at home. Attacking wise they are close to 3 goals per game with an average of 2.6 goals scored per game and 1.13 allowed at home. In terms of their form, Arsenal have won 93% of all their home matches this season.

Arsenal record at home v Stoke record Away (via kickoff.co.uk)

All in all, as stats go, the game favors the Arsenal and frankly, I think it sets up nicely for another win at home. Of course as we’ve seen at Arsenal this year nothing should be taken as a given and they will have to earn the win.

And they need the win. They are 13 points out of the top 4 and even 8 points off the fifth spot. Worringly the poor form has only kept them a mere 5 points above Burnley currently sitting in 7^th. Dropping further than 6^th would be the biggest disaster for this club since last season when we finished 5^th.  And that’s why I would “understand” it if Arsene did decide to field as strong a side as possible.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal: Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang. Not being able to play in Europa league means its down to the league for the Gabon forward. And he has been worth his fee with sublime movement and some goals already that are highlight reels.

Stoke: Xherdan Shaqiri. Maybe the only good thing about Stoke is the man with the monster calves.

Probable Lineup for Arsenal 

Injuries and Suspensions:

Arsenal: Cazorla (achilles), Kolasinac (knee – doubtful)

Stoke: Choupo-Moting (groin), Grant (wrist), Ireland (calf), Cameron (hamstring – doubtful), (Adam – suspended)

Last 5:
Arsenal: WLLLW

Stoke: DDDLL

Goals Scored (average per game)
Arsenal: 1.83

Stoke: 0.94

Goals Conceded (average per game)
Arsenal: 1.37

Stoke: 1.87

Manager’s Perspective (courtesy Arsenal.com):

“I don’t think there’s any fatigue. Fatigue is when you’ve not got anything to strive for. We’ve still got an awful lot to do and I think there’s a bit of excitement actually. Training has been really lively this week with the 10 or so boys who have been here. I don’t think they’re just looking towards the end of the season for a holiday.”  – Steve Bould

Match Officials:
Referee: Craig Pawson (19M 68Y 4R)
Assistants: Stuart Burt, Richard West
Fourth official: Kevin Friend

Broadcast Information:
UK: Sky Sports: 13.30 GMT
US: NBC Sports Network: 8:30 AM EST

Match Facts (courtesy BBC.co.uk):

• Arsenal could win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since November.
• They have earned 72.9% of their points this season in home games, the highest ratio in the division.
• The Gunners have lost 10 Premier League matches this campaign. Their worst record under Arsene Wenger is 11 defeats in 2005-06.
• Mesut Özil has been directly involved in five goals in his five Premier League starts against Stoke, scoring twice and setting up three.
• Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan have combined for three goals in just 406 minutes on the pitch together in the Premier League this season – no duo has linked up for more at Arsenal this season.
• Arsenal have won their last 15 home matches against Stoke in all competitions, a run that stretches back to August 1981 when the Potters won 1-0 at Highbury thanks to a goal from Lee Chapman.
• Stoke are looking to complete a league double over Arsenal for the first time since the 1975-76 season.

YAMA Predicts: Arsenal 3 – 0 Stoke

Match Score Probability

Arsenal scores at home vs Stoke scores away

Match stat graphics courtesy our new partner: Kickoff.co.uk. To view their full Arsenal v Stoke Preview click here.