Match Preview: Olympiacos v Arsenal; Not the End of the World

At this point, there’s no secret about Arsenal’s objective in this evening’s Champions League encounter at Olympiacos: The Gunners must win by two goals or by any score except 1-0 or 2-1 to advance to the competition’s knockout stage.

Falling short would mean Arsenal wouldn’t advance from the Champions League group stages for the first time in 16 years. It would also cast the club into the Europa League, with its potentially awkward Thursday matches in far-flung locales.

We’re at this point because the Gunners fell to Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia and Olympiacos at home in their first two matches, so any talk of failure should really focus on those two performances. Winning today by the required margin represents a much tougher task.

That’s particularly true because Arsenal will be far from full strength. We won’t rehash the team’s injury problems but will only note that the absence of Alexis, when goals against a compact defense are essential, could be decisive.

In those conditions, it won’t surprise us if the Gunners don’t succeed to the necessary degree. And that outcome won’t be a harbinger of the apocalypse.

Yes, winning is preferable, and this team needs to get back in the habit after its difficult November. Joining Europe’s best in the Champions League knockout stage also bolsters Arsenal’s reputation, its finances, and fan enthusiasm. We’re not arguing any of those points.

But, in and of itself, an exit from the Champions League will not be cataclysmic.

That’s mainly because Arsenal don’t have a realistic chance of winning the Champions League. Even if they receive a kindly draw in the first knockout match and buck the recent trend of losing to that initial opponent, the likelihood of taking out Bayern Munich or Barcelona or even Juventus or PSG over two legs is remote.

The Europa League, on the other hand, is a competition Arsenal might actually win.

Aside from that calculation, there’s a far worse outcome than failure in Athens—additional injuries. If any more first team midfielders or forwards are forced off this evening and then are ruled out for any of the busy festive schedule, Arsenal’s prospects in the Premier League will look grim. That would actually be disastrous, given the tight competition at the top of the table and the Gunners’ legitimate chance of overtaking current leaders Leicester City in the next few weeks.

How much will manager Arsène Wenger account for these implications when he sends his team out this evening? He’s not the type to shirk a challenge or to take a tactical loss; that’s why such matches as the 2004 FA Cup semifinal against Manchester United, when he dipped into his squad to rest several starters for their run at invincibility and history, sticks in the memory.

Wenger has also sounded the charge in his comments before the match, saying “There is one positive thing for us – we know exactly what we have to do. We know that we have to go for it from the start. So let’s do that and hopefully we can get through.”

An indication of Wenger’s aggressiveness will be his deployment of Theo Walcott. The forward played 25 minutes against Sunderland on Saturday after more than a month on the sidelines with a calf injury. Does the manager give Walcott the start on the right side of Arsenal’s attack and again send out Olivier Giroud as the team’s center forward? That would be the most attack-minded team Arsenal could field at the moment.

It would also be risky in the short- and medium terms. Walcott won’t provide much defensive cover for right back Hector Bellerin, and fielding both Giroud and Walcott, the only two healthy options to lead the Arsenal line, courts injury danger.

Wenger is a risk taker, but he’s not crazy. He’ll acknowledge the significant downsides and, more than likely, keep one of Giroud or Walcott in reserve.

There’s not much choice to make elsewhere in the Arsenal setup, meaning Mathieu Flamini and Aaron Ramsey will continue their partnership in midfield. Theirs was a significant combination offensively on Saturday—Flamini-to-Ramsey was the team’s top passing connection—but their focus forward left gaps in the defense that Sunderland exploited on the counterattack.

Because Olympiacos must only avoid defeat, it can sit back, stymie Arsenal’s attack, and look to break. Arsenal’s midfielders will therefore need to be more attentive than they were on Saturday.

A more solid midfield will mark an important development for Arsenal’s league campaign as well. Whatever the outcome in Athens, home is where the focus should be.

Players to Watch:

Olympiacos. Esteban Cambiasso. The experienced midfielder will be the man to control the tempo and keep Arsenal’s playmaker Mesut Özil from finding space. If he can shut down the approaches to the Olympiacos penalty area and move the ball to attack quickly, Cambiasso will put the Greek side in a strong position to advance.

Arsenal. Olivier Giroud. The Frenchman has been producing the goals, ten in Arsenal’s league and European matches so far this season, and can trouble Olympiacos on set pieces. If Wenger prefers Theo Walcott’s speed and movement against the home side’s defensive setup, Giroud can be a decisive substitute.

Injuries and Suspensions:

Olympiacos: Bouchalakis (thigh), Maniatis (knee), Da Costa (groin)
Arsenal: Arteta (calf), Sánchez (hamstring), Wilshere (leg), Rosicky (knee), Welbeck (knee), Coquelin (knee), Cazorla (knee)

Probable Lineups:

Olympiacos: Roberto, Elabdellaoui, Botía, Siovas, Masuaku, Cambiasso, Kasami, Sebá, Fortounis, Pardo, Ideye.
Arsenal: Cech, Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Flamini, Ramsey, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Özil, Campbell, Giroud.

Match Officials:

Referee: Nicola Rizzoli (ITA)
Assistant referees: Elenito Di Liberatore  (ITA) , Mauro Tonolini  (ITA)
Additional assistant referees: Antonio Damato  (ITA) , Davide Massa  (ITA)
Fourth official: Andrea Padovan  (ITA)

Broadcast Information:
UK: BT Sport, 1945 GMT
US: Fox Sports 2, Fox Soccer2Go 2:45 PM EST

YAMA Prediction:
Olympiacos 1-2 Arsenal. Just short of the objective.

MANAGER’s QUOTES:

Arsène Wenger, Arsenal manager
We have to put in our mind every scenario. If we focus on the performance, the goals will come. Ideally I don’t know when we will score but if we play well we will have a chance to score. Ideally, you wouldn’t like to be patient but we may need to be. In the Champions League you must attack well and defend well and have the desire to win. At stake is to qualify for the last 16 in Europe. That’s what’s at stake

We have to give everything to qualify tomorrow and jump over the hurdle. If you want to have a chance to qualify you must be able to jump the hurdle. We’re here to qualify. We have a history of positive results, so we know we can do it. To do this, we need a top quality performance tomorrow.

Marco Silva, Olympiacos coach
It is true that tomorrow we have the opportunity to knock out Arsenal. The fact that we [can afford not to win] will not have an impact on us. We don’t go into any game thinking we will lose. We want to win every match and that’s what we work for.

I don’t care which players are missing for Arsenal. We used players for the first time when we went to the Emirates because we had injuries and used young players with no experience but they wanted to win. Why would this be any different for Arsenal? No matter who is playing, they will play to win. I don’t believe Arsenal underestimated us in the first match in London. I think that at this level all matches are quite difficult.

Match Facts: (Courtesy FourFourTwo.com via Opta Sports)

• Arsenal have lost all three previous Champions League away games against Olympiakos, all of those have taken place on matchday six.
• The Greek side are currently unbeaten in six home Champions League ties against English opposition; winning five of those games (D1).
• Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their last 12 away games in the group stage of this competition.
• The Gunners will progress ahead of their Greek opponents if they win this game by at least two goals; a 3-2 win would suffice because of their superior goal difference.
• Arsenal have never failed to reach the knockout stages of the Champions League since the inception of the new format in 2003/04.
• Olympiakos will reach the Last 16 so long as they avoid defeat; a 0-1 or 1-2 loss will also be enough for the Greek side.
• Arsenal have conceded a competition-high three goals from corners whilst no side has scored more from a corner this season than Olympiakos (2) in the Champions League.
• Olympiakos scored three goals from just four shots on target when these sides met earlier this season.
• Arsenal could be without Alexis Sanchez, he has been directly involved in seven of Arsenal’s nine Champions League goals this season (three scored and four assists).
• Felipe Pardo has been involved in three of the last four Champions League goals scored by Olympiakos (two scored and an assist); he scored in the reverse fixture too.