Match Preview: West Brom v Arsenal; Bag the Big Picture

Arsenal need total focus on 90 minutes of football against West Bromwich Albion early Saturday.

Since the Gunners’ Champions League exit to Bayern Munich, manager Arsène Wenger’s future has dominated the discourse. One example: The manager’s press conference before the FA Cup quarterfinal against Lincoln City did not feature one question about the match itself. The only topic was Wenger’s career plan.

This did a huge disservice to Lincoln City, of course. It also perpetuated the boring, binary debate among Arsenal supporters.

In all likelihood, Arsenal’s players aren’t bothered with this contention. They have 12 league matches and an FA Cup semifinal date to concentrate on. Ignoring the role each plays in the overall assessment of the season could be critical to success.

The first of these fixtures certainly requires its own level of attention. West Brom manager Tony Pulis knows how to play the foil to Arsenal, configuring his teams to nullify skill on the ball as a matter of course.

The Baggies succeeded in the reverse fixture, holding Arsenal scoreless until a late header by Oliver Giroud carried the day for the Gunners.

How do Arsenal cope tactically with that approach, especially given confidence is not at the brim these days?

In particular, will Wenger pursue the three-man midfield he has introduced in recent weeks? The trio of Granit Xhaka, Aaron Ramsey, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain provided an interesting and effective departure from the longtime 4-2-3-1 system.

Against Lincoln City, Oxlade-Chamberlain’s injury prompted the reintroduction of Mesut Özil to the side. The German, returning from illness and suffering poor form since the turn of the year, seems the key figure of the 4-2-3-1. It’s geared to allowing him playmaking freedom with minimal defensive responsibilities.

But his return did not prompt the team to revert to 4-2-3-1. Instead, he played deeper in the midfield trio and asserted himself physically against the tiring Imps. Özil has also enjoyed great success with the German national team as part of an attacking trio.

The advantage of either Özil position for Arsenal is a more cohesive midfield. Offensively, the flow improves because more routes forward open; defensively, Arsenal are less vulnerable to counterattacks.

Both dynamics will be important against West Brom. The Baggies will try to congest the interior approaches to their final third and to force Arsenal wide. They’ll be confident their large defenders can cope with any crosses from there. Lincoln executed a similar approach with some success in the first half last weekend.

When the Gunners switch the play quickly, though, defenders have to scramble. Ramsey and Alexis should be ideally placed to exploit the resulting spaces, and Xhaka and Özil possess the skill and vision to find them.

Vision and implementation on that plane—rather than at the corporate level or on the level of the manager’s future—should be all anyone cares about.

Key Matchup

Mesut Özil against Claudio Yacob. Arsenal will have the bulk of possession in this match. The outcome will hinge on what the Gunners accomplish with that possession. Özil has seemed pedestrian in 2017 and needs to spark into form for the last 12 league matches. He’ll have to avoid the attentions of West Brom’s pesky Yacob to start that resurgence at the Hawthorns.

Where to Worry

No mystery here—set pieces. That’s West Brom’s main offensive threat. The Baggies have scored 17 of their 36 goals (47 percent) in dead-ball scenarios. Their 12 goals from corners are far and away the highest of any Premier League team. (Stats from Opta via Squawka.com)

Match Verdict

West Brom will make Arsenal labor, as always. Pulis’s defenses will be difficult to break down, but as Arsenal increase the tempo, West Brom will tire. A lapse in concentration will provide the opening, and Arsenal will rely on a clinical finish to carry the day.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. This seems like a perfect environment for Welbeck. He has the speed to run away from West Brom’s hulking defenders and the strength to take them on if necessary.

West Brom. Ben Foster. The only reason West Brom didn’t get swamped at the Emirates was Foster’s performance in goal. Another stellar outing from him would deepen Arsenal’s frustrations.

Injuries and Suspensions

Arsenal: Cazorla (Achilles), Oxlade-Chamberlain (hamstring)

Match Officials

Referee: Neil Swarbrick (17M, 51Y, 3R)
Assistant referees: S Ledger, C Hatzidakis
Fourth official: K Friend

Broadcast Information

UK: Sky Sports, 1230 GMT
US: NBCSN, NBC Sports App, DirectTV Now, Sling Blue, 8:30 AM EDT

YAMA Prediction

West Brom 0 – 1 Arsenal

The Manager’s Take (Courtesy Arsenal.com)

They have a big experience, they are well organised, physically very strong and very efficient on set-pieces. I think they’re the team who have scored more goals than anybody else on set-pieces.

This season they’ve done very well in midfield. They have played very well, and up front they have Hal Robson-Kanu and Salomon Rondon who have done very well for them as well.

It’s a very balanced team with a good size who are equipped to deal with the Premier League.

It’s true that it is tough because West Brom is traditionally always a very difficult game, but as well it’s an opportunity for us to come back to the position that is much closer to Chelsea.

Match Facts (Courtesy FourFourTwo StatsZone)

• Tony Pulis has won only one of his last nine Premier League matches against Arsenal (D2 L6), although it came in this exact fixture last season at the Hawthorns (2-1).
• Pulis has only lost one of his six previous Premier League home games against Arsenal and Arsene Wenger (W3 D2 L1) and is unbeaten in the last four.
• Arsenal have scored in all 21 of their Premier League meetings with West Bromwich Albion; their best such 100% record in the competition.
• The Gunners have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games against West Brom, winning nine (D2 L1).
• All three of Olivier Giroud’s Premier League goals versus the Baggies have been headers; with two of those proving to be match-winning strikes (Boxing Day 2016 & May 2014).
• James Morrison has found the back of the net in two of his last three Premier League games against Arsenal at the Hawthorns.
• West Bromwich Albion have currently suffered 599 home defeats in their league history – only Notts County (633) have lost more since 1888.
• Arsenal have lost three of their last four Premier League matches (W1 D0 L3); the same number of defeats as they had suffered in their previous 32 matches in the competition.
• Alexis Sanchez has been involved in 26 Premier League goals this season (17 goals, nine assists) – more than any other player in the competition.
• Since Tony Pulis took charge of WBA in January 2015, the Baggies have scored a higher proportion of goals from set-pieces (47.8% – 43/90) than any other team in the Premier League.