Sitting on a Six Point Swing: Arsenal v Chelsea, Match Preview
The London Derby Part II
It hasn’t been pretty for the Gunners since ascending to the top of the league a fortnight ago. Coming into a run of games that would test their title credentials, the Gunners have been less then impressive, drawing at Villa and losing at home to Manchester United. If Arsenal are to maintain pace with the leaders they must get through a very strong Chelsea side. That opportunity comes up this Sunday as the Arsene Wenger’s side travel to Samford Bridge for the away leg of the London Derby.
Let’s start with a dose of reality shall we – ever since Roman Abramovich took over at the Bridge, the Blues have had an astounding record against the Gunners. That’s all the more impressive considering that before than Arsenal were 17-0 against them, pre-Abramovich. The gulf between the two has been more prevalent int he last two seasons with Chelsea dismantling Arsenal in the FA Cup semis-finals last season, and winning this season 3-0 at the Emirates.
The Chav’s win at the Emirates, was decisive in the score and in the fact that it exposed a lack of attacking options against stronger sides. Arsenal weren’t without their chances and for much of the match they wer ein the game. In retrospect you could argue it was Arsenal v Didier Drogba as it was the Ivorian striker who controlled Arsenal and less about what the rest of the Chavs did. In reality the Chavs weren’t that solid and if Drogba hadn’t placed them on their back that match could’ve easily been 0-0.
A lot has changed. Both the Chavs and Arsenal went on impressive runs though you could argue Arsenal’s was more impressive as it pulled them into range of league leading Chelsea. Imediately after the win against Arsenal, Chelsea were touted as the league winners – expect noone told the rest of the league and Carlo Ancelotti’s side had series of draws and even a loss to Man City.
Controversy is swirling over the Chavs as their captain John “Pants on the Ground” Terryhas been removed from his Captaincy of the national side comning off the news he had an affair with Wayne Bridge’s wife. That was piled on by news that he may have been selling out the box at Wembley he was given as Captain of the National side. The selling out of that box is strictly forbidden by the FA. This week was definitely not good for the Blue’s Captain.
This is relevant because you can expect that while Terry may be a little skewed, his teammates and the Chelsea faithful will circle the wagons around their embattled star. But JT has more pressing issues – can they win the league with a defense that is so questionable on set pieces?
For Arsenal, its more or less do or die. This game has a 6 point swing on it. Win and they are 3 behind – lose and they are 9 behind. Mathmatically, they would not be out of the title race. But the road is a little bumpier and little more difficult
I do caution anyone about writing them off even if they should lose at the Bridge. First they were written off in November and were a clear 11 points behind – they went on an impressive run and got into the title race. After the match at Stamford bridge the table becomes more favorable and they are still strong enough to put together a good run to keep the pressure on United and Chelsea – both of whom still have to play each other, and teams like Everton and Villa both in good form as of late. Arsenal’s two remaining tough fixtures after this are Liverpool and Man City.
Secondly, the point I have been arguing all season is this – it is less about what you do against the big four then it is what you do against lesser teams that will dictate how you finish the league. Last year United won the league off an abysmal form against the big four – 1W 3L 2D. By comparison Chelsea had their way with the big four last season and did not win the league – because they did not care of lesser teams. Chelsea have not been able to run away with the league because they have not put away lesser teams. Again they’ve been good against the big four but they struggle to close out lesser opponents.
The plan for Arsenal is simple – attack early and shoot the ball. Convert the chances that are given – and they will be given and this match will have a different tenor then the one at the Emirates. Most likely Niklas Bendtner will get the start against the Chavs which is a good thing. If he starts in the middle it puts a tall target in the middle of the box and fress Arshavin up to play to his strength – shredding opsosition on the wing. AA23 has been weak this season because he has been posted centrally – and while he is strong and dynamic he is not a central striker and when crowded out by taller defenders clogging the midle he has struggled. He has been effective when he brings the ball out wide and presses the wings in.
Nicky B wants to be the man for Arsenal and has been saying as much at every opportunity. I have not been a big fan of the man but if he wants to build an Arsenal legend – he could very well start today. Playing a pivotal role in the defeat of the Chavs would give him hero status. He will need to play like he was before his injury and where he was good was when he attacked forward and pushed the defender back. There is something about his game that is good and that is when he doesn’t try to be fancy and just presses forward. His size forces defenders back on their heals and in doing so he can hold the ball up and feed it to someone outside or press his way into the middle for a shooting chance.
With Nicky B in the middle and AA23 on the outside wing – I expect that Fabregas to have a little more space. Fabregas wasn’t poor against the Chavs last time but like his teammates he didn’t convert. He has been in impressive form lately and if he is given the space he can hurt teams. He is relishing this chance.
My lineup for tomorrow is below and it doesn’t take into account something radical I’d do if I were managing the team. Drogba’s game is less about speed and more about muscle. He simply over powers defenders and gets his shots. Plus he does have a pretty wicked foot. If I were managing I would make a wholesale change to the Arsenal line up for this match. I would remove Denilson (for all the reasons you know) and place Vermaelen in the midfield. It gives another defending option in the middle but also frees him up more to press for goals – he can score. I’d then put Sol Campbell in the middle with William Gallas. I can hear the cries of “ARE YOU CRAZY” now. Hear me out. I said Drogba’s game is about muscle not speed. Sol’s game is not about speed either, its about reading the game and putting himself in position to make plays. Frankly he did very well against a side that is much quicker than Chelsea and controlled the middle of the pitch against Villa very well. Muscle for muscle would be the plan and could work. Again Drogba is deadly so there would be some risk but did you know that Drogba has not scored on Arsenal when Campbell is on the field. I’m just saying.
The big intangible is the play of one Manuel Almunia, I clearly place the bulk of the loss to Chelsea last time on him. Outside of the TV5 own goal, Almunia was dreadful in that match. He did a poor job of talking with his defenders and in the run up to goals when he should’ve been calling out to them – he didn’t His lack of communication and coordination with his defencive pairing in front of him led to the confusion that resulted in TV5’s OG. He will need to stand on his head (because we know he won’t be benched) in order to beat the Chavs. To be honest I’m less concerned about any other position than I am about this. We could play fabulously but if he doesn’t deliver it could be all for nought. For a manager as “football” smart as Arsene Wenger, the fact he keeps Almunia in goal is a mystery to everyone and is one of his weak spots this season.
How It Should Play Out:
Expect Chelsea to play their sit back and wait style that has been their trademark – especially against Arsenal. They will let Arsenal in the match. Chelsea aren’t a shut down squad. Arsenal will have their chances, the key will be to convert them. If they convert their chances it nullifies the Chelsea strategy and forces them to stretch it out which leaves them vulnerable in the back. Chelsea’s biggest weakness is their back four. They were pretty damn lucky not to let Hull win in the midweek. The bigget place to assault Chelsea will be on set pieces and that is where Nicky B gives them a dimension they did not have in the last match – a tall target in the middle. Petr Cech has been wobbly on corners and a Nicky B is actually a good aerial player. Look for the game to be played as it always has. Let’s just hope the chances are converted and Arsenal change the dynamic.
Players to Watch:
Arsenal: Thomas Vermaelen. Vermaelen has shown himself to be an apt student – learning from previous mistakes match to match. No doubt he has looked at the last match and understands how Drogba plays. If we are to have a chance Vermaelen will need to be force he has been this season.
Chelsea” Dider Drogba. Who else. The man is an Arsenal killer.
Probable Starting XI:
Yeah I know Denilson starts.
Injuries:
Arsenal: Djourou (knee) Vela (knee) Eduardo (hamstring) Gibbs (foot) Merida (ankle) Van Persie (ankle)
Chelsea: Belletti (calf) Bosingwa (knee) Essien (knee)
Recent League Form:
Arsenal: LDWWD
Chelsea: DWWWD
Match Officials:
Referee: Mike Dean
Assistant Referees: Simon Beck & Richard West
Fourth Official: Peter Walton
TV Listings:
US: FSC 1100 AM EST
UK: Sky Sports 1 1600 BST
Gameday Chat will be open: www.youaremyarsenal.com/gamedaychat
Streams:
www.atdhe.net
YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal – 2
Chelsea – 2
