Statistics Pack: Arsenal v Qarabağ FK

Qualified for the knockout stages with room to spare; the Arsenal Europa League campaign has gone on without a hitch. After reaching the semi-finals last season, only to be just edged out by Atlético Madrid, Unai Emery’s pedigree in the competition will have Gunners’ faithful feeling optimistic.

Having been gifted a relatively straightforward group, passage into the latter stages of the competition will be the undoubted aim for the Spanish headmaster. Though travel to Eastern Europe and beyond is never easy, Emery has managed the squad expertly. That same management will likely come to the fore again on Thursday.

Arsenal’s Kids in Europe

Much like Arsène Wenger, Emery has viewed the Europa League as a proving ground for the young players in and around the first-team. In the first four matches of the group stage, we averaged three players 23 or younger in the starting XI. Matchday five away at Vorskla Poltava saw that trend increase, with the fielding of six players of that same age dynamic; Eddie Nketiah, Emile Smith-Rowe, Joe Willock, Mattéo Guendouzi, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, and Rob Holding.

Despite the nature of our young side on the night, the 3-0 result showed that the kids can hack it when called upon. Despite being away from home, we didn’t miss a beat. We were dominant in possession (57%), exhibiting the ability to control the ebb and flow of the match (88% passing), creating good chances (9 shots on target from 13/4 big chances created), and brimming with confidence.

To go along with the successful outing was the first professional goal for Joe Willock, while Emile Smith-Rowe bagged his second in the competition. In addition, Emery handed debuts to Willock, Zach Medley, Charlie Gilmour, and 17-year-old Bukayo Sako, who has shown much promise.

With Danny Welbeck out injured and the Christmas period nearly upon us, it is reasonable to suggest that the kids will get another taste of Europe this week.

To Three or To Four, That Is the Question

Arsenal has shown considerable growth in transitioning to a back three. Performance levels of key players have certainly increased, including the regular back three; Shkodran Mustafi, Sokratis, and Rob Holding. Since its first appearance away at Qarabağ FK on matchday two, and the subsequent reliance on it in four of our last five through all competitions, the Gunners have seemed far more assured.

Tough yet credible results against Tottenham, Manchester United, and Bournemouth have much to thank for the tactical transition. In this deployment, we have netted twelve times while only surrendering five at the other end, with the only dropped points coming at Old Trafford and four of the five surrendered coming against Spurs and United. But the question is if Emery will revert to a back four for the home fixture against Azerbaijani-side.

In our five Europa League outings, we have only deployed with three at the back in the Vorskla matchday two fixture. Even against tricky opposition in Sporting Lisbon, we fielded Emery’s preferred 4-2-3-1. The tandem issue currently, however, is the nature of our upcoming fixture list, and overall selection issues due to card accumulation and Rob Holding’s season-ending cruciate injury.

Considering our trip to Southampton comes seventy-two hours after Qarabağ, a fixture that will not feature Mustafi or Sokratis due to suspension, one of the senior center-backs should feature. With Laurent Koscielny now available once more – as is Nacho Monreal – there perhaps is no better time to give the former France international some minutes. If a back three is still relied upon, something in the vein of Koscielny, Sokratis, and Carl Jenkinson could be seen, with the view of Stephan Lichtsteiner, Mustafi, Monreal, and Monreal being in line for a start at St. Mary’s.

Arsenal and Qarabağ; Europa League comparisons

When choosing between a back three or back four, surely what Qarabağ bring to the table will be considered. A quick look at the table shows that the pair of protagonists is very much night and day. Places held in the table are very much reflected in the goal’s categories; Arsenal lead in both scored (11) and fewest allowed (2), while The Horsemen have scored the fewest (2) and surrendered the highest amount (12). Arsenal’s leading marksmen in the tournament thus far – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Emile Smith-Rowe, and Danny Welbeck – all have the same goal return as Qarabağ overall.

If Qarabağ’s poor goal return is a massive concern for manager Gurban Gurbanov, then the fact of Arsenal having opened the scoring in each of our five group stage matches will surely be the death knell for their chances.

Playing away from home will – likely – only pile on further misery, and a visit to the Emirates is surely a bridge way too far for the Baku-based outfit. Qarabağ has only managed to have the balance of ball possession on one occasion during the group stage; 66% during their home match against Vorskla, which they lost 1-0. Coupled with Gurbanov’s troops having only managed eleven shots on target through five European nights (compared to Arsenal’s twenty-seven), discretion may be the better part of valor and bunkering in defense and being difficult to break down should be their order of the day.

The match comes across not only as a foregone conclusion but one which neither has anything to play for. Possessing the head-to-head results against Sporting, Arsenal is assured to top the group. Even if Qarabağ was to win on the night, they would still have no chance of progression into the knockout stages.

We March On

With the moral boosting first part of the European campaign navigated with little trouble. Unai Emery’s Red and White Army should march into Christmas and the new year a confident bunch, more than capable of improving on 2018. This is a historic period of the fixture list that grinds the squad down to the point of injuries cropping up come February; this must be avoided at all costs.

As results continue to improve and the squad progresses as a unit both on and off the pitch, our biggest test under Emery to date will come over the next two months. All indications, however, show an Arsenal outfit that can stand against any challenge they’ve faced. We have come a long way since the opening exchanges of the season, and the fanbase should be excited and quietly confident of how we progress from here.