Will he or won’t he? The 2012 summer Arsenal saga.

Well, the summer is now and truly upon us. And in the last few years it wouldn’t be an Arsenal summer without negative transfer speculation directed at the club. The latest, with none other than this year’s football player of the year, Robin Van Persie.

We all saw it coming. No discussions during the season as the team and player agreed. Robin expressed very early on that all he wanted to do was focus on football. And that he did and that focus combined with his best run of health since becoming a regular first teamer made him instantly the best player in the league.

But now the season is over. Now the club must confront a situation that has been a recurrent theme at Arsenal over the last few years.  Because of the wage structure, focus on financial prudence, and youth rather than experience, the club has had its focus on winning questioned at the very heart of the club – by its players.

Star players have left every year for the last few years. It is a direct result of the changing landscape of the game as well as Arsenal’s priorities. Before we go on here, this is not an indictment of that policy.  Frankly, there are rumblings in football that Arsenal’s policies may start to pay off. There have been a series of articles that Manchester United are now beginning to feel the pinch of their debt and are unable to do huge significant deals like they used to. It is telling that Shinji Kagawa of Dortmund met with the club this week and left without a deal. In the past a visit to United by a player of Kagawa’s skill would’ve resulted in an instant deal.

But I digress. This isn’t about finances. It’s about Robin.

Yesterday, Robin Van Persie, his agent Kees Vos, Arsene Wenger, Ivan Gazidis got down to talk. Before anyone believes what is in the press, no one knows for certain what was discussed. Some reports are that it was just a end of season discussion and plans for the summer. Some papers like the Mirror, Mail and Sun all say it was a contentious meeting. Right now, only 4 people know the truth. Over time it will be clear.

What I want to do in this space today is talk about the possibilities that exist for possible scenarios for Arsenal and for Robin. What are the likely outcomes?

Robin signs a new deal.

We’re talking a deal that would see him stay at Arsenal until he retires.  It’s a win/win for everyone. Arsenal keep  hold of their star player and Robin likely has gotten the assurances he needs that Arsenal intend to compete (within their model) for glory.

Arsenal forces Robin to stay

Robin has one year left on his contract, the club for all intents and purposes can just tell Robin, ‘we understand you, but we want you to see the  last year of this contract out.’ To me this is the nuclear option. It creates so many unsavory issues, a player who may now feel unhappy to be held against his will, THE DEFINITE move by that player the following season, and the possible poison it could create within the locker room. This option while within the club’s rights, is not the one I would advise the club to go down.

Arsenal sell Robin

There is one thing in this whole saga I think we say is true – Arsenal are not going to sell to City any more. The players they have let go are players for whatever reason they felt okay letting go. The last Samir Nasri proving in his constant statements to the French press, that he is more about himself than any club. Arsenal do not want to sell Robin. But they may not have much of a choice if they cannot match his ambitions.  If they sell, I see Robin being sold to recently crowned Serie A Champs Juve or to Madrid or Barcelona.  I do not think Arsenal will sell to another  Premier League side – if they have to sell.

Contract Extension

Early signs are that Arsenal are making moves in the right direction in terms of the transfers. YAMA still believes in its exclusive last week that Rennes Midfielder Yann M’Vila will announce his move to Arsenal – soon. Quite a few French outlets last night confirmed as much. Additionally, signing Podolski and now a heavy move for Shinji Kagawa (Arsenal and his reps setting a meeting) are all signs that the Gunners are looking to improve the squad significantly. Are these the types of moves that would move Arsenal into contention to challenge City? Are the enough to convince Robin of the club’s intent? The way to find out would be for Robin to sign a 1 year contract extension, and see how these additions net out.

If the moves that do happen don’t net out, the club wouldn’t begrudge Van Persie his move.  RvP then would get his move and the club could sell him.  The obvious problem here is that it puts fans on edge for yet another summer.

My gut.

I don’t know. I am asked every day via twitter, what do I think? I honestly don’t know. My passionate side says I expect a player who suffered through a string of injury riddled seasons to stand by the club that stood by him when calls came in for him to be sold because he would never get over his injuries. I would expect a player who had this to say in 2008 about Manchester City:

“No they haven’t put an offer in for me and they don’t have to bother! I’m really curious if Manchester City have a plan because it won’t work by only buying the most expensive players.

“It’s about a team. If all the pieces don’t click then the system will fail.

“In principle, Man City could have success but there has to be a philosophy with a whole staff who have a plan for the next four or five years.”

to not be enticed by big money.

Robin has always struck me as a sort of throwback. From all the interviews I’ve read and watched this is a guy who’s true passion is the game, playing with his teammates and being part of the club that made him the star he was. In a day and age when players are increasingly moved by their next big paycheck, his approach always seemed refreshing to me.

But he is right on one sense. Arsenal need to get back to what football clubs are supposed to do – win. Noone I’ve talked to begrudges the model we’ve set ourselves upon.  We all for the most part applaud it but the detriment it has foisted on the ability to win has made the star players we have question its commitment to success.

Robin had this to say in 2008 as well:

“It is the principle,” said Van Persie. “It is very important that Arsenal keep these guys. This group is unique. If a number of them leave it will be different. I think of myself as an Arsenal man but Arsenal should also try to make sure that we all grow together.”

Very damning indeed. I still believe I am right in one respect – the move for Van Persie is not about money as much as the papers would like to make it out to be. It is about success for him. He is one of the best of his generation and surely wants to add something to that. An FA Cup winners medal from 2005 is not enough.  Arsenal need to Robin with strong intent that they intend to move back in that direction.

I really don’t have a sense of how this is going to end. I pride myself on being able to gain some sort of understanding by reviewing everything possible. There are so many layers from Robin, the agents, the club and the players family that you could read into anything – any direction. Which is why I won’t speculate.

If he stays – I am chuffed. If he goes – sure I’ll be sad, others will be angry but the club went on long before him and will go on long after him.

Finally, a tweet I got yesterday that inspired me to write this – Cesc went home, Henry came home, Van Persie is home.

That’s all until tomorrow, when we’re back with our live chat event.  More later.