Who Are Olympiakos: Scouting Arsenal’s Next Europa League Opponent
Arsenal are set to resume their Europa League campaign with a trip to the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to square off against former player Sokratis and Olympiakos. The Gunners look to put a stranglehold on the next round but will face stiff opposition. In anticipation of the match, I’ve given some time to scouting them and provided this overview of what we might expect in the match.
A quick word though about the review. This review was started a week before the match, in the meantime, things might change, players might be injured or someone might suddenly bump the scales completely. Just like the analysis of Benfica, this is mainly based on data available online. Mostly used formation, average possession, average movement of play and so forth.
This is a grudge match for Arteta in some way, as this was the team that threw Arsenal out of the Europa League last year, in extra time, in the 120th minute, after Auba set us through. This time around, Arteta has had a whole year to drill this team into something much more dangerous than last year, so this is a test to see just how far we’ve come. Before we get to the good stuff, let me just say Olympiakos is a pretty long name to keep on writing. So to avoid further injuries, they’ll be known as their abbreviation: OSFP
Just who is Olympiakos?
OSFP usually set up in the tried and true “triangles” formation 4-2-3-1, though they’ve used cousin formation 433 on a number of occasions as well this season. Those who used to sweat in FIFA will remember their LW, Bruma, as well as out and around small guy Valbuena on the RW spot.
Statistically Speaking
Unfortunately, the Greek Super League doesn’t upload individual player data, so going off of the data available in the international games, a picture forms of a team mainly carried by the defensive players. Predominantly moving the ball down wide areas the full backs usually have the highest amount of touches.
Whereas, dangerman El Arabi has had 14 goals in the Super League this season and Attacking Midfielder Fortounis has 7 assists this season, they’ve had a hard time converting that overseas. In fact, OSFP has only managed to score 7 goals in total, 4 of them being against PSV Eindhoven in the europa league first leg.
There seems to be a very good reason for this, though, when looking through the pass data:
Out of the 3654 passes completed in the 8 matches OSFP have played internationally this season, only 164 has been in the opposition final third, 35 has been into the 18-yard box and only 15 has been crosses.
To compare, Arsenal, in the same amount of games, have amounted 4404 passes in which 333 has been in the final third, 126 has been into the 18 yard box and 32 has been crosses.
Additionally, if we look at the average possession stats for the international tournaments, OSFP have an average of 51% possession, with most touches being in the defensive and middle third, with only 921 touches out of 4861 touches being in the final third. (Arsenal amounts 1963 touches in the final third out of 5548 touches).
Lastly, looking at goal creation statistics, OSFP have managed 101 actions that resulted in a shot, in where the majority (70) has been from live ball passes and only a small number coming from deadballs, defensive actions and dribbles.
Defensively, the international data shows OSFP mainly pressing in the middle and defensive third – with only having 29% successful pressing, in which the pressure resulted in gained possession within 5 seconds.
From this, I would be tempted to suggest OSFP looks like a side who wants to work off the ball, sitting deep and taking pressure before working the ball quickly across the field, using the fullback to move the ball before passing it into their attacking midfielders. Based on touch maps, the main players getting on the ball are the fullbacks and the midfielder, with both Bruma, Valbuena, Fortounis and El Arabi having minimal touches per game, averaging about 30-40 touches.
Watching through Wyscout, though, something becomes clear. While they do use their fullback as wide passing stations, they also tend to try to control the play from the back. The wingers have the license to go narrow, looking to drag opponents with them and leaving room open for touchline runs. As the ball enters the wide area, they look to find a central player making a forward run and overload the half spaces left open.
While the obvious dangermen are the same, the move starters are usually the central midfielders, tasked with making the initial wide passes while also being available for the central pass, trying to beat their man with a quick pass and move before setting up the assist or pre-assist.
How to defend against OSFP
With this data, stemming from both recent games and international games, I’d suggest the best tactical defending would be to stop the ball entering the central playmakers.
By applying a high press, sitting on, who I’d expect would be the pairing of M’Vila and Bouchalakis and forcing the defenders to go long, Arsenal would be able to force OSFP to drop their fullbacks deeper and stop them advancing into the final third.
Attacking OSFP
OSFP likes to overload the wide areas and move their midfielders high up the pitch. Ultimately that leaves a lot of room in behind that could and should be attacked on quick transitional play. Having a team that’s able to spring the counter and wants to play on the shoulder of the central defenders could snatch a quick opener and force OSFP to make mistakes.
While counter attacking would be the easiest option, OSFP also tends to leave pockets outside the 18 yard box, which could be used as advanced passing stations. As the OSFP central defenders tend to stand off, using these areas set up a forward for a shooting position could hit OSFP aswell.
Lineup
Arsenal finds themselves in the same situation as the Benfica game, where they have an important top clash just after a decisive international game. Playing Spurs in the weekend, Arteta needs to think about which players he possibly could be without and who to rest and at what times. There are two matches against OSFP, in where Arteta can have the luxury of playing his important key players against spurs, providing they have the ability to be rested the following thursday.
Hence I’d go for a semi rotated squad. ESR and Ceballos reintroduced, while Cedric get’s to play this game and hopefully Bellerin can show his worth against Spurs.
As Partey and ESR are both coming back recently from injury, and Tierney set to be overplayed once again, I’d look to Sub off both in the second half. ESR at half time for Ødegaard or in-form Willian, and Partey on for Xhaka or potentially Elneny to see the match through. I might even be tempted to shithouse Gabriel into a LB or LCB spot, going for a back 3 and subbing off Tierney for Mari or Luiz, if we look like winning the game in the second half.
Conclusion
This is an important game for Arsenal, as we look to bounce back from the horrid 1-1 against the team that crushed our dreams last year. With a squad that looks much better than last year, this could be a decisive point in the rebuild of Arsenal.
All stats sourced from the following:
https://footystats.org/clubs/
https://www.sofascore.com/
https://www.whoscored.com/
https://www.footballcritic.com/
https://fbref.com/en/
