Arsenal vs Manchester City match preview: Arteta gunning for a third straight home win over Guardiola

Arsenal return to Premier League duty at the Emirates on Sunday with a clear target: make it three home league wins in a row against Manchester City and keep pace near the top. Mikel Arteta’s side have nine points from four, three clean sheets in those wins, and a midweek Champions League victory at Athletic Club. City arrive after a derby win over Manchester United and a controlled 2-0 against Napoli in Europe, yet their league start has been uneven.

The numbers frame a tight contest but tilt toward the hosts. Arsenal have taken three home league points out of three on two occasions already this season, scoring eight and conceding none at the Emirates across those two matches. City have split their first four league games: emphatic at Wolves and against United, beaten by Tottenham and Brighton. The Opta supercomputer model rates Arsenal as 52.2% favorites, with City at 23.4% and the draw at 24.4%.

This is the latest chapter in a rivalry that has shifted in tone and balance over the past two seasons. Arteta’s group have become harder, cleaner in their details, and far more adaptable with and without key personnel. Guardiola’s team still carry elite punch up front through Erling Haaland and creativity through Phil Foden and Jérémy Doku, yet recent league form shows more variance than usual.

Below is the full Arsenal Premier League preview, built only from the insights and data provided.

Head-to-head history

Arsenal are unbeaten in the last five meetings in all competitions against City: 1-1 in the 2023 Community Shield, a 1-0 league win at the Emirates in October 2023, 0-0 at the Etihad in March 2024, 2-2 in Manchester in September 2024, and the 5-1 statement win at the Emirates in February 2025. Two wins and three draws across that run mark a clear break from earlier years.

City are winless in four Premier League matches against Arsenal and have lost their last two league visits to the Emirates. Guardiola is one result away from going five league games without a win against a single opponent for the first time. Arsenal, meanwhile, can post back-to-back league victories over City for the first time since 2015 and a third straight home league win over them.

Current form and recent results

Arsenal

• League record: 3W–0D–1L, goals 9–1.

• Home league results this season: 5-0 vs Leeds, 3-0 vs Nottingham Forest.

• Away league results in the last four: 1-0 at Manchester United, 0-1 at Liverpool.

• Champions League this week: 2-0 at Athletic Club.

Defensively, Arsenal are in a strong groove. They have kept clean sheets in each league win so far and conceded in only one competitive match this season, the 1-0 at Anfield, decided by a Szoboszlai free-kick. Their underlying defensive profile supports that record: only Newcastle (2.1) have a lower expected goals against than Arsenal (2.4) in the league so far.

Manchester City

• League record: 2W–0D–2L, goals 8–4.

• Last four league matches: 4-0 at Wolves, 0-2 vs Tottenham, 1-2 at Brighton, 3-0 vs Manchester United.

• Champions League this week: 2-0 vs Napoli.

City have the league’s highest expected goals so far (8.5 xG) and eight goals scored. Haaland leads the Golden Boot race with five and also tops the division for shots (19) and shots on target (8). Yet there is a scheduling quirk that has stung them of late: five defeats in their last seven Premier League matches played straight after a midweek European fixture. That run includes February’s 5-1 at the Emirates. Arsenal’s 48-hour rest advantage from playing Tuesday, versus City on Thursday, is real.

Team news and availability

Arsenal

• Doubts: Martin Odegaard (shoulder), Bukayo Saka (hamstring), Ben White.

• Nearing return: William Saliba trained and is pushing to start; Christian Norgaard featured in midweek.

• Out longer term: Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus.

Arteta has calls to make at right-back, right wing and in the right-sided No. 8 role pending fitness. Cristhian Mosquera has impressed at centre-back in Saliba’s absence, so the manager weighs continuity against the upside of reuniting Saliba with Gabriel. Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyökeres have made fast starts; Eze and Madueke give natural ball-carrying and 1v1 threat if Saka is not ready.

Manchester City

• Possible return: John Stones has trained and is close.

• Out or doubtful: Rayan Ait-Nouri, Rayan Cherki, Omar Marmoush, Mateo Kovacic, Kalvin Phillips.

• New arrival: Gianluigi Donnarumma kept a clean sheet in his league debut and another in Europe.

Pep Guardiola protected Rodri’s minutes on Thursday, withdrawing the midfielder to keep him fresh for the Emirates. Foden and Doku both carry form and pace, while Donnarumma has started cleanly in goal.

Tactical preview: where the match could be won

Shapes and pressing

Arsenal’s out-of-possession shape remains a compact 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 press with the No. 9 screening and a winger jumping to full-back triggers. With the ball, Arteta’s team builds into a 3-2 or 3-2-5 depending on which full-back steps in or goes. Riccardo Calafiori has been used as the wildcard on the left: sometimes staying wider to overlap, sometimes stepping into the half-space as a false full-back to form a five-man front line. That movement pairs well with Eze drifting inside and Mikel Merino (when used on the left of the midfield three) rotating to either support the touchline or arrive late beyond the box. Madueke can hold the width on the right or come into the right half-space as a second ten.

City have pressed this season with a high front three and a midfield triangle behind them. The flaw that recent opponents have targeted sits underneath that high line, around Rodri’s positioning when a City full-back jumps to press. If Rodri sits in no-man’s land between the line of the press and the back four, the diagonal bounce into the wide channel behind that pressing full-back opens. Brighton and Spurs both reached that pocket repeatedly. Arsenal’s plan to beat the first wave should feature two quick passes to draw the full-back and one direct switch into the vacated space for Eze or Calafiori to carry the attack.

Build-up traps and switches

• When City press the goalkeeper and split to block centre-back lanes, Rice or Zubimendi can drop to create the +1 in the first line. That invites Foden or the right-sided No. 8 to step out, leaving a clean lane into the far-side winger.

• If Guardiola asks Rodri to drop alongside the centre-backs when the full-back jumps, City restore a back four and close that lane. Arsenal’s response then becomes: recycle once, then play early into Gyökeres to pin, with the far winger and the left eight running beyond.

Defensive control and set-plays

Arsenal’s lead-defending rate sits at 100% this season. They have averaged 47.8 minutes per match in front and conceded only one goal across four league matches, all of which speaks to the group’s composure when they get ahead. City’s lead-defending rate is 67%. If the hosts strike first, their rest defence and ability to slow the game in the middle third can tilt the tempo.

Set-pieces remain a lever. City’s new goalkeeper adds reach, yet Arsenal’s delivery and block-routines have been a regular source of pressure. Expect the home side to stack near-post runs against City’s zonal spots and hunt second balls at the edge for Rice or Zubimendi.

Transition threats

• Arsenal in attack-to-defence: immediate counterpress through Rice and Zubimendi, with the weak-side full-back tucking early to deter Doku’s outlet.

• City in defence-to-attack: direct releases from Donnarumma to Haaland’s channel and fast diagonals to Foden. Arsenal’s centre-backs must control depth without leaving the cut-back zone free.

Key players to watch

Arsenal

• Viktor Gyökeres: three league goals from seven shots and a top-three xG total (2.1). He pins centre-backs, runs channels, and has been clinical so far.

• Eberechi Eze: gives the left side a dual threat. He can isolate and dribble or drift infield to act as a second playmaker.

• Declan Rice: sets the press, guards the middle against Haaland lay-offs, and attacks the second ball at set-plays.

• Martin Zubimendi: scored twice against Forest and reads the next pass well in restarts; key for the first-phase exit if City jump aggressively.

• David Raya: calm distribution under pressure will be vital when City set the high press.

Manchester City

• Erling Haaland: five league goals so far; four in six against Arsenal; 19 goals in 20 league matches played in London. His minutes-per-goal in the capital is one every 93 minutes among players with 1,000+ away minutes.

• Phil Foden: form player between the lines, provider of Haaland’s Champions League landmark header.

• Jérémy Doku: direct 1v1 outlet on either flank.

• Rodri: if he solves the spacing question when City press, the visitors remove a key Arsenal route out.

• Gianluigi Donnarumma: clean sheet on league debut and again in Europe; faces a set-piece examination at the Emirates.

Statistical breakdown

All figures below reflect the supplied sample for this season.

• Points per game: Arsenal 2.25; City 1.50.

• Goals per game: Arsenal 2.25 scored, 0.25 conceded; City 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded.

• Clean sheets: Arsenal 75%; City 50%.

• Scored first: both teams 75% of matches.

• Home/away split:

  • Arsenal at home: 2W–0D–0L; 8 scored, 0 conceded; 100% clean sheets; 100% wins to nil.

  • City away: 1W–0D–1L; 5 scored, 2 conceded; 50% clean sheets; 50% failed to keep a clean sheet.

• Lead/trail profiles:

  • Arsenal average 47.8 minutes leading per match; equalizer goals conceded: 0.

  • City average 40.3 minutes leading; have conceded one equalizer this season.

• Model probabilities: Arsenal win 52.2%; draw 24.4%; City win 23.4%.

• Attack quality: City top for xG (8.5, eight goals scored). Arsenal rank fifth for xG (6.5) yet have nine goals, helped by finishing efficiency and set-play threat.

• Defensive quality: Arsenal second-best for xGA (2.4), only Newcastle lower at 2.1.

• Scheduling note: City have lost five of their last seven Premier League matches played directly after a European game; that run includes the 5-1 at the Emirates.

Likely line-ups and selection themes

Line-ups hinge on late fitness calls, but the patterns are clear.

• Arsenal: Raya; Timber, Saliba (if ready) or Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Zubimendi, Odegaard if fit or Merino/Nwaneri; Madueke, Gyökeres, Eze.

  • If Odegaard does not start, Eze can act as a drifting left-sider with Merino supplying late runs. If Saka is unavailable again, Madueke keeps the right flank role.

• Manchester City: Donnarumma; Khusanov, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly; Rodri; Silva, Reijnders; Foden, Doku; Haaland.

  • Stones adds flexibility if cleared; he could slot in to give Rodri more cover during Arsenal’s switches.

Where Arsenal can tilt the game

1. Exploit the full-back press
   Draw City’s near-side full-back into the high press, then hit the immediate diagonal into the vacated lane. Eze or Calafiori can attack that space, with Gyökeres running the inside channel to fix Dias or Gvardiol.

2. Set-piece volume
   Keep corners and wide free-kicks frequent. Crowd Donnarumma’s six-yard box, target the near-post flick and hunt the second ball for Rice/Zubimendi shots from 14–18 yards.

3. Wide overloads, then the switch
   Overload City’s right side with Calafiori, Eze and Merino to pin, then switch quickly to Madueke isolated 1v1. City’s right-back options are still bedding into the role; early ball speed can expose shifting.

4. Lead management
   Arsenal’s game state numbers are strong. If they score first, slow the rhythm, deny City’s quick restarts, and protect the cut-back zone against Doku/Foden combinations.

Where City can threaten

1. Direct early releases to Haaland
   Donnarumma’s long distribution plus Haaland’s runs against the channel can stress Arsenal’s line before the midfield sets. Gabriel and the right-back need clean body shape on first balls.

2. Second-phase around the D
   If Rodri gets time, City create repeat shots from the edge through set patterns. Arsenal’s first block must be tight, with Rice stepping out only when cover is set behind him.

3. Foden between lines
   The England international links the front. If he finds pockets behind Arsenal’s eights, he can slide Doku or Haaland through before the block compresses.

Prediction and closing thoughts

Evidence from the last five meetings favors the Gunners: unbeaten, two straight league wins at home, and a 5-1 in this fixture last season. Current defensive metrics support them again. City bring the league’s most productive attack by xG and an in-form Haaland, but their post-Europe league record is poor and they arrive off a Thursday night.

Arsenal’s clean sheet run at the Emirates this season, the model edge, and City’s vulnerability when the full-back presses without immediate cover point to a narrow home win if the Arsenal manage the first wave and land the game’s first goal. The visitors’ path runs through quick, direct play to Haaland and fast switches to Doku before Arsenal’s press sets.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City.