Stats Pack: Arsenal v Chelsea

It is time for Arsenal to put aside the recent drama and give the home support something to cheer about. News that Sven Mislintat could be headed for the exit door came as an unexpected shock. The continuing stance taken by Unai Emery regarding Mesut Özil leaves a divided fanbase in its baffles.

There is no better remedy for what ails you than getting one over your rivals. The Gunners need a rallying cry with which to galvanize the fanbase and dressing room alike. Maurizio Sarri’s invasion of North London at the head of an in-form Chelsea provides the perfect opportunity.

Win and we are breathing down the Blues’ neck, while presumably remaining level with Manchester United. Lose, and bearing other results, our chance at top four may as well effectively be over. If there was ever a hill to defend that defined the course of our fortunes for the season, it’s here. It’s now. Our Thermopylae. Our Rorke’s Drift. You know, without the slaughter.

Regardless if Emery decides to reestablish his faith in Ozil or even Aaron Ramsey, remains irrelevant. We need a result. A big one. Maximum effort is required.

Arsenal vs Chelsea; Raw data

• Arsenal has surrendered nince at the back in their last five Premier League fixtures, compared to Chelsea’s
• Only six clubs have allowed more goals through the 22 league fixtures than Arsenal
• Chelsea is level with Manchester City for joint-second best defensive record in England’s top division
• Eden Hazard’s KP90 of 3.11 is 1.01 better than every single fit and available Arsenal player
• Arsenal have allowed 60 more shots from open play than Chelsea; 206-146
• The Gunners’ conversion rate from open play bests the Blues’ however; 16.6%-11.3%

Chance conversion is key for Arsenal

Building on one of the key points from the raw data, the way forward for Arsenal is their goal-scoring ability. When on song, Unai’s men are far more dangerous in the final third than their counterparts. For all of Hazard’s brilliance on the ball, and Willian’s tireless effectiveness, Chelsea lack a real genuine finisher up front. Alvaro Morata has been all but frozen out of the starting birth at center forward, while former Arsenal cult hero Olivier Giroud has been utilised as a substitute regularly.

Much like during his time at the helm of his native SSC Napoli, Sarri converted a winger to the centre forward/false nine role. In Naples, it was Hazard’s Belgian international teammate Dries Mertens that was shifted from a wide role into the middle. It worked to devastating effect, and much of Hazard’s success this season (10 goals/10 assists) can be attributed to it. In this shakeup, however, Chelsea lacks an attacking focal point.

No one would class Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang as a focal point either; quite the contrary. The Gabonese international’s key asset is his mobility in running the channels and finding room to operate. But he is also a far more instinctual finisher than Hazard. So too is Alexandre Lacazette. Though reduced to a more tertiary substitute’s role, the Frenchman is still lethal when given space. Arsenal’s conversion rate in comparison to Chelsea’s reflects this.

If the match rests on a single opportunity, you would bank on our forward(s) tucking it away. The goal tally of Auba and Laca combined bests that of the triumvirate of Hazard, Pedro, and Willian. If we keep our forward line supplied, at the very worst, we should be able to hold firm.

Fortress Emirates to the rescue?

Once more we find ourselves using our home form as a crutch. This would be less of an issue if our away from was not substantially weaker compared to our rivals.

There are few better in front of their own than us though; just Liverpool and Manchester City. Credible results against the Reds and Spurs at ours pays homage to our ability when in the mood. Chelsea is equally as difficult to crack when away from Stamford Bridge, unfortunately.

Chelsea’s difficult to break down midfield plays a crucial role in their away success this season. Their 2.20 points/game away from home is a full point higher than the league average. The 0.80 goals allowed/match when visiting is even more impressive.

Most worrisome is the fact that they have only been down at the half on a single occasion out of 10. Despite our home results, Emery typically gets a tone out of us in the opening exchanges. It may leave us more open at the back, but drawing first blood may be in our favor. Chelsea’s only loss against a top-six rival this season away from home came against Spurs, who opened the scoring. Sitting back and allowing Hazard the freedom to run at us for an entire half will only inevitably create opportunities for Sarri’s men.

We may not bag a goal in the first half, but it is imperative that we go into the second half with momentum. Our goalscoring record (24 goals) at home remains top three in the league.

There is no better time to break tradition and come out swinging rather than our typical reactionary approach. When your back is against it, it’s always better to take the fight to your opponent.