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Home›Match Previews›A European Must-Win For Arsenal

A European Must-Win For Arsenal

By Michael Price
March 14, 2019
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Arsenal-Rennes-Europa-League-Tactical-Analysis-Statistics

Arsenal have it all to do in order to advance to the next round of the Europa League after a humiliating loss last week in France to Rennes. Still, the Gunners have a crucial away goal and we are home at the Emirates where we’ve been near impregnable.

Last week the match set up perfectly for Arsenal. It should’ve been a match where Arsenal brushed away any challenge from their hosts. And they started off perfectly with Iwobi’s early goal but it all went south after that.

A turgid affair in France

Emery opted to play stick with an attacking oriented side and kept with his 4-2-3-1, which had seen his side be more expressive in its attacking movements over the last few matches.  With Lacazette serving the second match of a 3-game suspension, Auba led the line with Özil tucked in behind. But it would Iwobi who would get the Gunners on the score board.

Arsenal-Rennes-Europa-League-Tactical-Analysis-Statistics

Arsenal started off the match on the front foot and laid down a marker early in the match as Alex Iwobi scored within the 3rd minute. Like most of Arsenal’s attack’s play went primarily through the left side with Iwobi featuring heavily.

Arsenal-Rennes-Europa-League-Tactical-Analysis-Statistics

Arsenal heat map vs. Rennes (courtesy WhoScored.com)

 

Arsenal-Rennes-Europa-League-Tactical-Analysis-Statistics

Arsenal focused their attack primarily down the left.

Through the first half Arsenal dominated play with the lion’s share of the possession and a slew of chances only to find they’d left their shooting boots in London. We had numerous chances to put it away after the first goal but couldn’t.

Still the opposition were hardly the pushovers many thought the 10th place team in Ligue 1 would be. The came to play with energy and they were good at beating Arsenal to many loose balls.

Controversy mars the first leg

For all of Arsenal’s ability it would be a moment of stupidity by Sokratis that would see the match upended completely. In the span of 7 minutes the Greek got not 1 but 2 yellows seeing resulting in an early departure for the defender and giving the hosts a sense of hope.

The first yellow was for a foul on Ben Arfa. The second one, could’ve been construed as soft but the Greek was the wrong side of Ismalia Sarr and wound up tripping him. The match turned at that moment and it wasn’t hard to see how the match would likely turnout.

Fortress Emirates

The good news for Arsenal is that the match now turns to the Emirates where Arsenal have been about as fantastic as they can be. In the Europa League thus far, through 4 games at home, Arsenal have only conceded 2 goals.

Their form has been even more impressive in the league where their home results are only second behind Manchester City, in fact out of the top 5 leagues in Europe, Arsenal are currently the 4th best team at home.

The Arsenal will need that form and more to get by a plucky Rennes team that will be emboldened not only by their result from last week but also the noise the reported 5000 away fans should bring.

That’s why the call from Emery, the players and supporters’ groups are to get out to the match and support the team and create an atmosphere to urge the players on.

Arsenal are going to need every kind of lucky charm they can get. We know our defensive frailties and even thought we’ve registered a clean sheet on the league this past weekend, they are few and far between for this team.

We can expect the Rennes will look to sit back and try and hit Arsenal on the counter. They know we’ve got to come and force the issue and they can sit and wait as the match develops. They unfortunately for Arsenal are in the driver’s seat.

Selection

Emery can afford to be a little daring here in his lineup. With a long break and the team heading to Dubai during the interlull, he can try and field an XI that is essentially his first choice XI, save for the suspended Sokratis.

Arsenal-Rennes-Europa-League-Tactical-Analysis-Statistics

Probable XI for both Arsenal and Rennes via WhoScored.com

The good news for Unai Emery is that Alexandre Lacazette’s suspension has been reduced and he is now available to face Rennes. But he will need to decide what to do with Mesut Özil who has started the last 2 matches and largely been effective until adjustments were made.

Also, Henrikh Mkhitaryan is still a match-time question as he missed the match against United with a strained back.

YAMA Predicts

Arsenal 3 – 1 Rennes – Arsenal to advance on PKs

Conclusion

We did ourselves no favors in our trip to France last week but we’re back on home soil and given our home form we have to be favorites to get a result. The question will be of course, can the result be enough to move Arsenal on to the quarter-finals or is this the end of the road for our European hopes?

————————————————————————————————————

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