Arsenal v Manchester City; Match Preview

The saying goes to be the best; you have to beat the best. And for Arsenal if they are trying to prove they have Championship ambitions, then their trip to the Etihad on Sunday is a true test of their silverware desire. We’ve been told that the first four games were against ‘lesser teams’. That they didn’t mean much, and while I disagree, this match is a chance to hush those doubters up.

The focus this week is all turned to Merseyside for the supposed biggest match of the week. Well they are wrong. In my opinion this is the biggest and tastiest. Both of these teams are looking to continue to build momentum and further establish their credentials. For City, they are going to want to show that last season was no mere chance of luck. They are going to want to show that this team as it is constituted is a long-term title challenger.

For Arsenal they will want to show that their ambitions lie beyond just finishing in the top four and that the new found team spirit on display can carry them far.

The match itself sets up some interesting choices for both Managers. For Arsene Wenger he has two critical choices to make in my opinion. The first is in his central defense. Does he keep the unit that has been so stellar together? Or does he opt to bring in Laurent Koscielny. You can make a case for either set up and in my lineup below I’ve opted for Koscielny. This is not a knock on Mertesacker who has been huge beyond just his lanky frame.  I’ve projected LK6 because of the speed and 1 v 1 skill that both Agüero and Carlos Tevez possess. More so than anyone the Arsenal back 4 have faced, this season, the movement, decision making, and skill of these two skill players will give them problems. Having Koscielny on who is more mobile and skilled in these 1 v 1 cases might be better. However, Mertesacker has faced off against the likes of Spain and Holland and done well so you could argue that his positional reading and game awareness will be fine. Either way Arsenal should be okay.

The next decision for Arsene Wenger is whether to try Olivier Giroud up top again or opt for Gervinho in the middle acting as a false 9 like he did against Southampton. This formation took advantage of a defense that was having issues and conceding shots all over the place. City’s defense while markedly better than Southampton has had issues this season. They have already conceded 6 goals this campaign and cannot seem to close out opponents.

The fluidity of the Arsenal attack versus Southampton was amazingly good. They exploited space well and their movement and decision making made bad defenders looks worse. The speed of the attack was overwhelming for Southampton and lining up this way may force Mancini to keep Yaya Touré to sit back. This would be beneficial to Arsenal in terms of handling the City attack. City have sat deeper this season but when Mancini moves Touré more forward this is when the City attack becomes more deadly. Having Arsenal set up in a way that forces City to be more behind the ball from the midfield back obviously has its upside.

As for Mancini he has been a bag full of experiments. Mostly in terms of formation. He has gone from his preferred 4-2-3-1 to a 3-4-1-2. With 3 at the back he has opted for new signing Maicon over Zabaletta but neither has showered them with glory and has struggled with pacy wingers. The combination of Podolski and Gibbs could cause City a number of problems. When Zabaletta or Maicon have had problems this has pulled the ever reliable Vincent Kompany out of position and opened up space – one of the reasons why I think City have conceded so many goals – and this has opened space to attack the box.

Then there is the psychological factor for both teams. Arsenals are flying high. They boast the best defense in the league. There is a new excitement around Arsenal as Mikel Arteta points out:

“It’s been a big transformation, in every sense. First of all, with the atmosphere around the club and team.”

“We put the team before anything else and play for each other and when you do that most of the time you will score.

Overall everything seems positive for the Gunners. While City is winning there is this strange air that has come across them this season. Last season there was an air of confidence and arrogance to them and you knew they would be in for it. Now it seems to some extent that with the league won, that success is a foregone conclusion. It seems that that the hangover from last may still lingers.

What has happened to the defense of last season? Joe Hart has looked pedestrian. It’s only in their attack that the quality of last season still shines through. Now, this is not to diminish City. This is for the most part the team that won the league last season. And as you may have saw, caused some problems for Real Madrid. But it is that gut-wrenching last second loss that may still weigh heavy on them. Madrid was ripe for the taking with the club in disarray behind the scenes. If City were going to get anything it was the perfect moment. Yet they didn’t. Once again there defense let them down. Once again they allowed an opponent to cut open their defense and score. So how City approaches this match is also a big question mark.

The most interesting part of this game will be the midfield match up. Arsenal’s strength this season has been the midfield. The combined work of Arteta, Cazorla, and Diaby has been fantastic. But they are coming up against a midfield that features Yaya Touré (the most important City player) and Javi Garcia (who looks to have displaced the injured Gareth Barry). The only question remains David Silva, a quality Spanish player to be sure but so far the roar around him paled to his success from last season. Missing from City will be Samir Nasri (shame that one). Nasri will be out nursing an injured thigh so James Milner will feature on the wing. How these midfields battle will ultimately dictate the game in my opinion. The key to midfield battle will be how well does Abou Diaby stack up against Yaya Touré.

The Frenchman certainly looks good but he is going up against one of the best. If he can negate Touré’s presence then I like the Arsenal midfield to come out ahead in this battle. If Diaby can’t balance it out then a rampant Touré will make life especially hard for us.

Overall I think these teams match up better than people think. And while people will wax poetic about the first home game at Liverpool since the findings of the independent Hillsborough Commission, the true football aficionado will have their eyes cast on this match. It will be (hopefully) a good solid match. And while the outcome doesn’t mean as much this early for either team – it still can make a statement of intent and cause people to take notice.

How the Match Should play Out:
I expect this to be a chess match. The previous ties against these two teams have been good cagey affairs with neither wanting to concede to the other. Arteta’s late winner last season could’ve cost City the title. Lucky for them United couldn’t close the deal. Look for nothing to change. City will sit deeper as they have been doing most of this new season. But they will not lack options. They will be dangerous on the attack but with Arsenal’s speed they will likely be susceptible to the counter. I expect the Arsenal defense to play within themselves. The CBs haven’t ventured too forward this season and I don’t expect that to change. Arsenal will look to find their moments and hit City with speed. It has all the makings of a classic hard fought draw – something that would benefit both sides.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal. Vito Mannone. With Szczesny out for 3 weeks, the Italian gets a chance to make his stake to the starting role. A solid performance against City will go a long way to doing that.

Manchester City. Yaya Touré. One of the biggest reasons Arsenal looked so good against City last season at the Emirates was his departure early on in the game. He is such a presence that City hardly looks a threat without him.

Projected Lineups:

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Fabianski (shoulder) Frimpong (knee) Rosicky (hamstring) Sagna (broken leg) Szczesny (ankle) Wilshere (ankle)

Manchester City: Richards (ankle) Nasri (hamstring)

Leading Scorers:
Arsenal:  Podolski 2, Gervinho 2

Manchester City: Tevez 3

Assists:
Arsenal:  Cazorla 2

Manchester City: Tevez 2

Last Meeting (Premier League):
Arsenal: 1

Manchester City: 0

Avg Goals For:
Arsenal (away): 1

Manchester City (home): 3

Avg Goals Against:
Arsenal (away): 0

Manchester City: (home): 1.5

Last Five:
Arsenal: DDWW

Manchester City: WDWD

Goal Difference:
Arsenal: 7

Manchester City: 3

Match Official:
Referee: Mike Dean (Matches: 3, R0 Y5)

Broadcast Information:
US: Fox Soccer Channel 1100AM EST

UK: Sky Sports 1 1600 BST

GAMEDAY CHAT: It’s Open!!!!!!

www.youaremyarsenal.com/gamedaychat

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Manchester City: 2