3 Teams; 2 Spots; The Run for Champion’s League Qualification

The race is on. For the first time that anyone can or cares to remember the North London Derby has real meaning. In this case it gives the winner the advantage in the race for a Champion’s League spot. Arsenal while not the form of consistency in cup competitions have been pretty steady in the league. Tottenham continue to pull out wins on the foot of Gareth Bale and Chelsea well if we’re honest they are just a mess right now.

Everton and Liverpool look already set to drift away from the battle for a Champion’s League spot as Everton’s lack of depth and Liverpool’s lack of talent catch up to them. So the real race for spots 3-5 come down in my opinion to these three teams – Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea. The key becomes which one has the edge.

Now any review like this is completely arbitrary. There are so many intangibles and the beauty of the Premier League is that in that this league clearly has a penchant for games that anyone can win – well almost anyone.

Starting with the graphic below we look at the remaining 11 fixtures the three teams in the chase have left. Each one has its own pit falls for the respective teams. The team that can better manage those pitfalls and reduce inconsistency and mistakes will likely come through the minefield securing a Champion’s League spot.

We’re going to take a look at each team. Rather than just saying they should win this match and that we will also try and overlay some thought about the intangibles.  I watched the Premier League web site last night a presentation by Alan Curbishly where he did exactly this similar review. However, Curbishley ignored such things, as Chelsea’s circus like atmoshphere at the moment, the fact that Chelsea and Tottenham have continuing Europa league runs, and Arsenal’s fragilities.  I’ll try not to.

Arsenal

At first blush Arsenal have the better of all 3 run ins. Their biggest tests are the away match this weekend to Tottenham and Manchester United at home.  But there are little stops along the way that anything other than top performance could result in Arsenal looking on the outside in for Champion’s League qualification next season. The Tottenham match looks the scariest though as no team has really been able to stop Gareth Bale and given Arsenal’s lack of a DM and poor defensive form we’ll likely see him on the score sheet. It remains as to whether or not Arsenal can pull it together. However, Tottenham have their own problems and continue to let in more goals at a more alarming rate than Arsenal. Which is why as much as the NLD scares me this weekend I think both teams come out of it with a hard fought draw (I hope)

Everton is sliding away. Their lack of depth a big issue. While they started off brightly and seemed to hover around lately for them, I really see an Arsenal win here. Swansea away poses a bigger threat as Arsenal haven;t shown too much ability to slow down Michu. But as good as Swansea is, they’ve also been prone to some stinkers (see their Liverpool match).  With Premier League likely secure and a cup to boot there is little to play for except the ability to be a spoiler. I call it a draw.

Beginning with Reading, Arsenal have a real chance to make some headway and go on a nice run leading into the Manchester United match. Each one of these matches is winnable – substantially and with the likelihood the Champion’s League will be over then the first team will likely get the bulk of the run. But I am going to be fair and expect that there will be a hiccup and a draw away to West Brom looks like a fair result.

Then comes Manchester United. A lot depends on how far ahead in the race for the title United are. If they’ve had any slips and City are reeling them in, this could be an easy loss for Arsenal.  However, if the titles is locked down (all but officially) and United happen to still be in the Champion’s League, then a win could be on the cards for the Gunners as United have their eyes elsewhere. Still, I’m torn but given our luck I see a loss.

QPR and Wigan I see as dead wins. Newcastle away is a quirky one. They’ve certainly looked better since their French revolution but they also haven’t looked nearly as good as you’d have thought. The result is hard to call because realistically how the team performs will really depend on the other two teams and whats at stake. I’ll go with a draw.

The results: DWDWDWWLWWD  – 22 points

Tottenham:

So much for Tottenham depends on two things. First, Gareth Bale’s health and second, how good they start this next run of fixtures. Tottenham have shown great resilency this season. They are doing through Gareth Bale what Arsenal did through Robin Van Persie – finding a way through one player to win when they shouldn’t win at all. The task for them is tough though as they have more chances for slip ups than Arsenal.

Starting with the Gunners which we called a draw (we pray), Liverpool away (loss) Fulham home (win) Swansea away (draw) could either make or break the Spurs run in for Champion’s League glory. Additionally, their Thursday escapades mean that the matches for the run in are coming fast and furious and they’ve got a marked lack of depth in scoring. So if anything were to happen to Gareth Bale they have shown themselves to not have the tools available to pull it out.

The thing is, it doesn’t get any better for Spurs as they then face off againstEverton (draw)  Chelsea (draw) Manchester City (loss) Wigan (win) Southampton (win) Stoke (draw) and end with Sunderland. Again as is the case with Arsenal the last game really depends on what’s at stake. Sunderland at home should be a win for them and we’ll plot it as so.

The results: DLWDDDLWWDW – 16 points

Chelsea:

Man this one is hard to call. Chelsea are in the midst of an epic meltdown internally and predicting how they finish is hard. They surely have enough talent on that team to run the table of their last fixtures. But given the current state of affairs you could also see a scenario where the lose most of their fixtures. I will try and take the even ground for them.

Right off the bat though, I am going for a loss to West Brom. Only because its coming on the heels of Rafa’s rant and so much turmoil boiling up. I believe they get it done against Fulham and draw to West Ham. I got Southampton as a draw though you could see a case for a loss. Sunderland at home looks a win and Tottenham at home a draw. Liverpool away I think is a loss, Liverpool have done remarkably well against Chelsea given both clubs problems. Swansea home is a win for them but they face off against United at Old trafford in a match that could cinch the title for United – loss. Aston Villa away is a win and Everton at home a draw (but could be a win depending on what’s at stake.)

The results: LWDDWDLWLWD – 16 points

So how does that net out after 38 games:

Arsenal currently on 47 points  would finish with 69.

Tottenham currently on 51 would finish with 67

And Chelsea with 49 would finish with 65 points

Yeah of course its all subjective. And as I’ve said before there are so many intangibles, like injuries, Arsenal losing to lesser teams, Chelsea suddenly remember their talented, and Tottenham remembers its well, Tottenham.

I did try to be as fair as I could even to Tottenham. In fairness I can see the case people are making for them being the better of the three especially on the foot of person. But in the end, I think that experience counts for something and Arsenal have been down this road before and come through it.

Does it mean I am accepting less than winning. No, this is not what this was about. It was all about loking at the run in and trying to realistically predict a scenario for each team. And for about the third (or fourth time) ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.