Match Preview: Arsenal v Liverpool. Not one for the faint at heart
Well, here we are. After all the hoopla and feel good moments of the season, Arsenal arrive with their first real test of the season. Sure, Dortmund was a test of sorts and so was Chelsea (not really) but this is the league – the one that matters most AND it’s Liverpool.
Two teams looking to claw their way back into the where they used to roam unabatedly. Arsenal looking to stay in contention for the Premier League title, Liverpool looking to crash the top 4 party. A result for either goes a long way to establishing that in the minds of supporters and pundits (but who really cares about them.)
Arsenal are riding high in the league. Since the beginning of the calendar year, no team has gotten more points out of the league then Arsenal. In 19 league games (since Tottenham away last March) Arsenal have only lost once. People will point to the opposition. The question being whom have they beaten. Fair question but you can only play who you can play. And for a team maligned for having no defense, and for being decidedly weak in terms of players, it’s an amazing feat no? If it were any of the “favorites” like Chelsea, United or City, even Tottenham, this would be the stuff of Champion’s but it’s Arsenal and for whatever reasons it just doesn’t matter.
Except to us.
Let’s say this all together – Arsenal are an improved side. This isn’t the side that is blowing matches to lesser teams. While at the beginning of the 2012 season it looked that way – it wasn’t. The beginning of last season was getting 3 key players to gel. When they did the results from January on speak for themselves.
The defense isn’t as poor as many – like Alan Hansen – would have you believe. Last season they ended up 2nd best in the league – behind Manchester City and ahead of United and Chelsea. This season while allowing 3 goals to Aston Villa, no team has scored more than 1 goal in the league against them. The tandem of Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker may not be everyone’s favorite but they’re successful and they complement each other perfectly.
And this weekend they will get tested. Liverpool come to town with as lethal a partnership up front as we’ve seen. Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge come in looking to build upon the growing reputation they’ve established as a dynamic forward partnership.
With Liverpool running a form of the 3-5-2 – Rodgers has both players sitting up top looking to get the ball back and quickly on attack as soon as Liverpool get the ball. This dual pressure will test the German-Franco partnership to its limits and it can’t be overlooked that Arsenal will miss Mathieu Flamini as they look to limit SAS’s chances.
I am interested in seeing how this 3-5-2 works against Arsenal. For the most part Rodgers has had success using against teams that aren’t possession-based teams. They aren’t bus parkers by any stretch but as much as Arsenal’s opposition has been light, so has Liverpool. Arsenal are going to enjoy large spells with the ball and it will be interesting if Rodgers employs a full on individual pressing to win it back and get the chance or will they shadow and utilize team pressure to clog passing lanes. Either way, how good do two forwards work if they aren’t getting enough service? Typically in the current style of play, at least one forward is getting back to assist in defense. Without the ball will Rodgers force one of his strikers back to help out.
This is why this match is so interesting. Rodgers system hasn’t really been tested. He hasn’t taken it on the continent as there are no such contests for Liverpool and they didn’t employ this formation against United at Anfield. So it’s never been really tested by opposition who love to have the ball. Additionally, the risk of having three at the back with Arsenal can’t also be ignored.
Sure, the 5 in the midfield are likely to limit space for the Gunners but Arsenal will get their chances. They haven’t been stopped from getting them and if there are three that are covering Arsenal’s creative attack it will create openings for the Gunners. And right now, Olivier Giroud is one of the best in the league at finding space and testing the channels. Simply put, if Arsenal are given the time and space to test a back 3 – it will be to our advantage. So while we project Liverpool to line up in the 3-5-2, don’t be surprised if he goes to a 4 at the back, just to limit the opportunities Arsenal may get.
How the match should play out:
Did I mention, it’s a test for both teams? Oh yeah. Each team will look to exert themselves early on in the match. A lot was said about Arsenal in the wake of the Capital One Cup tie with Chelsea. And thought it was tie internally I don’t think they are bothered with, they will want to quiet the critics who say that Arsenal aren’t up for the task of competing for the title (Yes, I am looking at you Alan Hansen). While Arsenal lack any real width players right now with Walcott and Podolski still a week or so away, they still have plenty of speed and guile with which to hurt an opponent and that means look for the Gunners to apply pressure to Liverpool right away and exert dominace over the midfield and possession of the ball. Hopefully both will give them the early chances that they will need to capitalize on.
Obviously, Liverpool will look immediately to get the ball up to Suarez and Sturridge. They’ll look to hit Arsenal quickly themselves and insert doubt immediately into Arsenal’s minds. Liverpool while trying to prove their own credentials will look to get the likes of Gerrard free to get the ball up to SAS and test the tandem of Kos and BFG.
This won’t be a match for the faint hearted. Do not expect this match to be a “gentile affair.” It will be charged and energized. I wouldn’t be surprised if some players nerves are tested.
In the end however, I think it will be a match that benefits both and keeps it at a draw.
Players to Watch.
Arsenal. Per Mertesacker. With Koscielny likely marking Suarez, Mertesacker will need to be at his positional best against Sturridge.
Liverpool. Luis Suarez. Not be facetious, but with as charged as this match could be (with both teams out to prove something) it has all makings of an event where Suarez does one of his stupid things.
Probable Lineups:
Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Diaby (knee), Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee) Podolski (hamstring), Walcott (stomach) Flamini (groin)
Liverpool: Enrique (knee) Aspas (thigh) Coates (ACL)
Leading Scorer:
Arsenal: Giroud 5, Ramsey 5
Liverpool: Sturridge 8
Assists:
Arsenal: Giroud 4, Ramsey 4
Liverpool: Sturridge 2, Gerrard 2, Enrique 2
Last Meeting (EPL):
Arsenal: 2
Liverpool: 2
Last 5:
Arsenal: WWDWW
Liverpool: LWWDW
Goals For:
Arsenal (home): 2.2
Liverpool (away): 2
Goals Against:
Arsenal (home): 1.2
Liverpool (away) : 1.2
Goal Differential:
Arsenal: 11
Liverpool: 9
Match Official:
Referee: Martin Atkinson (Matches: 3. R0 Y11 PK 1)
Assistants: Burt, McDonough
Fourth Official: Jones
Broadcast Information:
US: NBC Sports Network 1:30PM EST
UK: Sky Sports 1 17.30 GMT
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YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2
Liverpool: 2
