Match Preview: Arsenal v Newcastle United; Gunners Control Their Own Fate

It seems hard to fathom that a team that spent 128 days at the top of the Premier League table are in a fight to take the fourth and final Champion’s League Spot. However, that is exactly where Arsenal find themselves heading in to today’s match.

The “dog fight” may have eased a little with Everton shooting themselves in the foot this weekend against Southampton but a season that had us Arsenal supporters filled with renewed hope is left us collectively scratching our heads and asking “WTF?”

Of course we know what happened – too many injuries at one time to key players. Sure, there were ample enough players to come in but they weren’t and aren’t as influential as Aaron Ramsey and Mesut Özil. Is it any wonder that the win over Hull looked more like our early form than any other match since mid-February?

Aaron Ramsey through Boxing Day was Arsenal’s impetus going forward. Others benefited from his drive and desire to create opportunities for himself. As he grew more and more lethal, his movement and creativity allowed others to get free and have their own chances. Then there is his goals. Prior to his injury Ramsey was a sure-fire candidate for PFA and/or PFA young player of the year. He was that goodand Arsenal’s record and run was a testament to it.

Arsenal were able to handle his loss for a while. It only got really bad when Özil went out of the lineup and then we were mired in slow, prodding, non-lethal attacks that often fizzed out. We were without our engine.

Arsenal sorely missed these two players more than anyone else. And it showed. Now with them back and Champion’s League qualification on the line (along with FA Cup final) Arsenal look more likely to retain their spot in the top 4 (much to the chagrin of Adrian Durham and others.)

However, before anyone overlooks today’s opponent, we should remember that this team beat United and Spurs and they drew with Chelsea and Liverpool. In short Newcastle when they want to can play with the big boys. The problem is do they and can they now?

Newcastle have been one of the worst teams in the Premier League since the calendar turned on 2014. Only Cardiff have been worse. In their most recent 11 losses, they have failed to score in 7 of them. The loss of Yohann Cabaye (Kabob for you Kinnear lovers) has hurt this team immeasurably. Additionally, Loic Remy has been out for a large chunk of time. Even though he is likely to feature today it may to be too little too late.

Still Remy poses a threat to Arsenal’s back line and Newcastle can pose a threat to the Gunners creating some space between them and Everton in the race for Champion’s League. Remy is pacy with movement and likes to make runs to exploit the gaps between defenders. The tandem of Mertesacker and Koscielny will have to be at their best to insure he stays quiet.

Arsenal though will like their chances here. Newcastle like to keep their defense back. This inviting set up will likely afford Arsenal much of the ball and with Ramsey in the middle with Özil feeding him, there could be chances aplenty.

The key will be patience at home as they have done all season. They are still unbeaten at home since the opening day Villa loss. They still have not allowed a visitor to score more than 2 goals and then only on a few occasions. If Newcastle sit back in say a 4-5-1 waiting to hit Arsenal on the counter-attack it will be their undoing. Arsenal may not score immediately but when things were  going well, they had a propensity for just being patient, waiting for the right moment for that off-the-ball run to create space and chances. It was an effective blue print, one mistakenly assumed by some to say that Arsenal were poor. The fact being missed that  or the most part, Arsenal usually came out ahead of those matches.

I don’t see Pardew applying a high pressure style like some teams have employed against Arsenal. As we know this is how other teams have managed to hurt the Gunners. On the road Pardew will look to play the ball from his full backs to his wings and get Remy the ball in the box from a cross. Again, it’s a style that should suit Arsenal well and allow them to dictate play.

The lineup pretty much picks itself with Vermaelen now back and likely to fill the LB role that is left void by both Gibbs and Monreal being out with minor knocks. Lukas Podolski should get the start in front of Vermaelen. While everyone is purring (and rightly so) about Ramsey and Ozil’s return, Lukas Podolski has found his clinical form hitting 4 goals in 5 games.

Podolski is a love or hate kind of player. His lack of defensive ability often causes us to shout at him in derision but when is in and around the box with the ball at his feet, he is more than likely going to get a goal. He is widely considered Arsenal’s most clinical finisher and on the evidence you can see why. It does raise the question as to why he doesn’t go up front, but you have to think his lack of hold play is what hurts him there.

Arsenal are masters of closing a season. They seemed to fix the early season woes. It was only the start of the downward slope in late February and all of March that did them in. It’s still a season in the balance but one that offers promise when it’s all said and done. Win today and the minimal target will only be one game away.

Probable Lineups:

Injuries & Suspensions:
Arsenal: Gibbs (hamstring), Gnabry (knee), Walcott (knee), Wilshere (foot), Diaby (knee)

Newcastle: Sa Ameobi (ankle), Ben Arfa (dead leg), Obertan (knee), R Taylor (knee), Santon (hamstring).  Cissé (test – knee), De Jong (test – ankle), Sissoko (test – hamstring).

Match Officials:
Referee: Neil Swarbrick (18 matches, 63Y 0R 3PK)
Assistant Referees: Betts, Hussin
Fourth Official: Pawson

Head to Head Seasonal Statistics:

Broadcast Info:
UK: Sky Sports 1 20.00 BST

US: NBC Sports Network 3:00 PM

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal 3-1 Newcastle

Match Facts (courtesy FourFourTwo)

• Arsenal have won their last four Barclays Premier League meetings with the Magpies; their best ever run against them in the competition.
• The Magpies have lost eight of their last 10 Barclays Premier League games at Arsenal (W1 D1); losing 7-3 there last season.
• Arsenal have had draw/win results in their last five wins against Newcastle
• Only against Liverpool (15) have Newcastle lost more Premier League away games than at Arsenal (13).
• The Gunners have won their last two Premier League games, after winning only two of the previous nine.
• Arsenal have been level at half-time in their last five matches against Newcastle
• All four of Mesut Ozil’s Premier League goals have come at the Emirates Stadium but only three of his eight assists have.
• Lukas Podolski, with 19 goals and 11 assists in the Premier League has the third best mins per goal involvement in the competition’s history (97 mins), behind Thierry Henry and Sergio Aguero.
• Newcastle have conceded first in their last five matches against top-six teams
• Podolski has scored a brace in each of his last two Premier League appearances and has netted five in his last five in the top-flight.
• Newcastle remain in the top-half of the table despite losing nine of their last 12 Premier League matches.
• Arsenal have had both teams scoring in their last four home matches
• The Magpies have scored just 10 Premier League goals in 2014, fewer than any other side.
• Arsenal cannot top the table again this season but will send the season having spent the most days at the summit (128)