FA Cup Match Preview: Arsenal v Manchester United; How to Break our OT Hoodoo

When Arsenal drew Manchester United away in the quarterfinals there was a predictable sense of dread amongst a large sector of the Gunners fan base. Since 2009, Arsenal have won 1, lost 11, and drawn 3 against United.  Their record at Old Trafford since 2007 is even worse: 0 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw. Two of those losses came in the FA Cup. In 2008, when Arsenal were making a run at the title, Arsene Wenger fielded what was largely a backup XI and the Gunners got whacked 4-0. In 2011, Arsenal dominated the Reds in terms of possession but it proved fruitless as United bagged two goals and won 2-0. Last season, against what many consider the worst Manchester United side in recent memory, Arsenal took one out of a possible six points. Earlier this season, despite largely dominating the game, Arsenal found a way to lose 2-1 at the Emirates. At a glance there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of reason for optimism. As the eternal Arsenal optimist, I see opportunity where others see impossibility. While it would be hugely dishonest to say I wasn’t hoping to draw a weaker side, this is a huge opportunity to get over the mental block Arsenal seem to have established against Manchester United at Old Trafford in a tournament where the Gunners have had nothing but success in the past two seasons.

Why Be Optimistic?

First, I don’t put a lot of stock in the results from seasons past. Manchester United aren’t the same side and more importantly Arsenal aren’t the same side. As Gooners probably remember, many of those teams that took on Manchester United in the barren years were patchwork pieces, sides designed merely to finish in the top four and anything after that was gravy. Conversely, Manchester United were still enjoying a terrific period under Sir Alec Ferguson. Louis Van Gaal’s Manchester United, while sitting in an admirable position in the table, have yet to really find their footing as a footballing side. The results are what matter but I think that even Manchester United fans are growing a bit irritated by the manner in which these results are being achieved. Being scolded by Big Sam for playing antiquated, archaic football is probably not a spot most United fans want to find themselves in. Van Gaal has constantly tinkered with his lineup, moving Wayne Rooney to midfield, switching from a back 3 to a back 4, all while having to deal with a sputtering star in Radamel Falcao and an aging Robin Van Persie. Manchester United are a talented side but anything but a sure thing in terms of consistency and fluidity on the pitch.

Second, despite being on the edge of the current top 4, I have a lot of faith in this Arsenal side given their performances away from home against top sides this season. In previous campaigns, Arsenal have had a host of frightful results away from home against top opponents. Often the Gunners and Arsene Wenger have been the target of harsh criticism for their perceived all out approach in these ties. This season, Arsenal have gone about big occasions differently. Elements of this reform in approach were evident in the 2-0 loss to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, where the Gunners were undone by an Eden Hazard penalty and caught out on the break when they were pressing for a late equalizer. A 2-0 loss wouldn’t give many a reason for optimism but to me Arsenal finally went toe to toe with Chelsea in a controlled manner. They weren’t overrun, they weren’t outplayed, they just were on the losing end in a game of fine margins. Later in the season they went to Anfield, a place Arsenal had been thrashed 5-1 last season. This time around the Gunners conceded large amounts of possession in favor of stability; they seemingly had the game won before conceding to a Martin Skrtel header deep into stoppage time. Last month, Arsenal visited the Etihad for a game with Manchester City. This time around a controlled, composed Arsenal performance highlighted by the play of Santi Cazorla and Fracis Coquelin yielded a 2-0 victory. The “can’t win away from home against a top side” narrative needs some rethinking and it’s a credit to Arsene Wenger and the Arsenal players that they have clearly realized and worked to correct the previous error of their ways. The win against Manchester City doesn’t fix everything but it does give Arsenal the ability to recall a recent occasion where they have gone away from home in Manchester and came out victorious.

Lineup Decisions & the Effect of a DM: Walcott or Welbeck? Cazorla or Ramsey? Le Coq

The emergence of Francis Coquelin in midfield simply cannot be overstated. For years Arsenal fans have cried out for an intelligent, no-nonsense, athletic, hard tackling defensive midfielder to protect the back four and facilitate the attack. Coquelin is currently filling that role brilliantly. He organizes the midfield, has the athleticism to get back and close down space when the team losses the ball in attack, and is skilled enough on the ball to expedite the transition from defense to attack. Coquelin has won the most tackles in the premier league in 2015 and his stats compare very favorably with Cheslea’s Nemanja Matic. In previous high profile losses, Arsenal had come under heavy criticism for forgetting their defensive responsibilities. Snapshots were passed around on the internet of the team with loads of players ahead of the ball as a means to showcase the perceived lack of defensive awareness. Coquelin solves this issue with his head and his feet. He is constantly reminding his creative midfield teammates of their less showy obligations, although as Mathieu Flamini proves, someone of just about any talent level can gesture about. More importantly, he erases these lapses from ever happening by breaking up play with a well timed tackle or close out and allowing his team enough time to reconstitute their shape. Stats wise, he dwarfs Arteta and Falmini in terms of tackles, aerial duels won, interceptions, and clearances. While Flamini and Mikel Arteta may have had the brains for the position (some may debate even that), the simply didn’t have the legs to bail the team out when possession was conceded high up the field in attack. Coquelin’s play at times give the illusion Arsenal have changed their style more than they actually have. While they certainly play more judiciously in big games away from home, the large periods of possession, highlighted by intricate passing, are still readily evident. Thanks to Coquelin, the errors are forgotten because they do not lead to goals on the other end.

Arsene Wenger has an interesting lineup issue on his hands with the decision of whether to start Theo Walcott or Danny Welbeck. Thankfully for the pair, there may end up being enough games to go around (even though the imminent return of Ox will complicate the decision further) but if it’s a knockout game on the highest level, who starts? Welbeck is probably the safer option. He tracks back better, links up in passing with the rest of the team better, and will run himself ragged for the side. He also boasts a better chances created rate (1.7 to .39) and successful take on rate (1.58 to .78) than Theo. Conversely, tracking back isn’t the best part of Walcott’s game and he can go missing for large segments of matches. In Arsenal’s recent win against Lecister City, Theo managed to play 70 minutes and score a goal while completing only 6 passes. Theo has averaged a little over 19 passes a game, which is second to last on the team (Chuba Akpom is the only player who completes less and he’s never made a start for the club). What Theo does have is the ability to win a game in an instant, pace to burn, and adds an element of constant fear in the minds of defenders. Walcott also provides a better outlet for the likes of Mesut Ozil and Santi Cazorla to pick out. When played in, Walcott converts 40% of the time as compared to Welbeck’s 10.8%. Theo has averaged .79 goals per 90 minutes, best on the team and far better than Welbeck’s .25 goals per 90 rate. If it’s my decision in a must win game, Walcott gets the start. A front three of Alexis, Giroud, and Walcott with Ozil, Cazorla, and Coquelin behind them is a lineup that has it all. It’s a lineup that can compete on all fronts and has bench options that could include Welbeck, Ramsey, Wilshere, Rosicky, Ox, etc. Walcott’s end product and ability to get behind the defense is enough to obscure his deficiencies and override the harmonious elements that Welbeck brings to the side . Big contests are games of fine margins; Walcott is a match winner and has the unique ability to decide matches with one clever run.

Given the competition for starting spots in Arsenal’s packed midfield and front three, Arsene Wenger may soon have to make a decision on whether Aaron Ramsey or Santi Cazorla gets the nod as the box to box midfielder. Previous formations have shifted Mesut Ozil out wide, allowing for Cazorla and Ramsey to play in the same midfield. Keeping Ozil out wide would only allow Wenger to play two of Olivier Giroud, Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade Chamberlin, Alexis Sanchez, and Danny Welbeck rather than the ideal three. Assuming three of those 5 players start, Ozil slots in as the attacking midfielder, Coquelin as the defensive midfielder, that leaves one spot for Cazorla, Ramsey, and a healthy Wilshere to fight over. In his current form, Cazorla simply can’t be dropped in a big game. Despite the box to box role not being his first choice position, Santi has shown an ability to play it effectively on a number of occasions. As a central midfielder, Cazorla has highest passes per game at 63.1, key passes per game at 2, dribbles per game at 3.3, interceptions per game at 1.6, and his 1.9 tackles per game is behind only Ramsey’s 2 per game rate. Moreover, his ability to dribble in and out of tight spaces in a packed midfield is often a great asset in springing attacks and getting out when Arsenal are under siege in their own end. Cazorla’s current purple patch is contrasted by Ramsey’s lack of form. The Welshmen has simply failed to even approach the lofty heights he reached for parts of last season. Some of his spottiness is down to persistent injury issues. Simply put, it‘s hard for a player to find their form when every few weeks they pick up a new knock that keeps them out for an extended period. The game is simply too fast for Ramsey right now, he constantly makes the wrong decision in attack and fails to link up well with his teammates. Other than running yourself ragged, which he does very well, the box to box role demands the player link defense with attack. In the Tottenham game, Ramsey constantly gave the ball away due to misreads and over elaboration. Consequently, Arsenal failed to retain possession and struggled for much of the game to get out of their own half. Furthermore, Ramsey’s appetite for attack often leads him to be caught up field in attack and forgo his defensive duties. A box to box midfielder cannot constantly leave the defense exposed. In a must win game at Old Trafford, on current form I’m banking on Santi Cazorla over Aaron Ramsey on both the offensive and defensive end. Does this mean Ramsey can’t regain his form and force his way back in the side? Of course not. He’ll get plenty of chances to prove his worth and I think he’ll do it but for now, I’m rolling with Santi as the box to box and thus allowing Wenger to field all his best attacking options in front of him.

Exploiting Wayne Rooney in Midfield

Tactically, Arsenal must look to exploit the lack of balance in Manchester United’s lineup. While having Radamel Falcao, Wayne Rooney, Robin Van Perise, Juan Mata, and Angel Di Maria sounds a tantalizing proposition, how do you get them all in the same side and keep the needed balance? This is an issue Van Gaal has struggled with all year. The decision he seems to have made is that Wayne Rooney will slot in as a tucked in right-sided midfielder in Van Gaal’s diamond formation. This is a definite weakness as it nullifies most of what Rooney does well and often serves to disjoint United’s play in midfield. As a striker, Rooney gets off 1.8 shots a game, has 3.4 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, and averages .5 goals a game. As a midfielder, he gets off 1.3 shots a game, averages only 1.5 touches in the opposition penalty area, averages .3 goals a game, and his assist numbers are identical. Unsurprisingly, Rooney does average more inceptions (1.4 to .7), complete more tackles (1.7 to .9), average more touches (88.6 to 65.5), and complete more passes (57.4 to 40.5) when playing as a midfielder. However, these numbers are unimpressive when compared to United’s other midfield options. For example, as compared to Ander Herrera, Rooney attempts less passes (68.1 to 70.9), completes less passes (57.4 to 61.8), completes less tackles (1.7 to 2.9), makes fewer interceptions (1.4 to 2.1), and creates less chances (1.4 to 2). Why drop Rooney deep? Because he is the captain and Van Gaal is trying to fit all his perceived first choice options into the same lineup (these stats suggests it’s at the expense of the greater good of the team).  It is perfectly possible that when United and Arsenal face off Wayne Rooney won’t be deployed in midfield. However, the lack of cohesion, stability, and confidence that comes from constantly swapping players in and out of the starting XI is equally as exploitable as Wayne Rooney playing in midfield.

Conclusion

Does all this mean that Arsenal will definitely beat United in the FA Cup? Of course not, United are a talented team and Old Trafford is a tough place to play. What it does mean is that the gloomy outlook exhibited by many Gooners post-draw was unwarranted. Arsenal have finally unlocked a way to fit Cazorla and Ozil in the same midfield. They have finally found an adequate defensive midfielder that allows the team to play with a freedom they haven’t enjoyed in years. They have an abundance of healthy attacking options for Wenger’s fluid front three. Conversely, Manchester United are the team that will come into the tie with questions about Van Gaal’s acumen when it comes to choosing a starting XI and his ability to cultivate an environment that will allow all of his attacking options to actually play appealing football.