Can Arsenal Win the Premier League Title? A Fixture-by-Fixture Analysis of Their Prospects
For Arsenal fans, the dream of lifting the Premier League trophy after a 20-year wait is tantalizingly close. Mikel Arteta’s team has spent the last few seasons evolving into a dynamic, cohesive unit capable of challenging the domestic dominance of Liverpool and Manchester City. But as the 2024-2025 season approaches its climax, the Gunners face their toughest test yet.
Currently second in the table with 39 points after a commanding 3-1 victory over Brentford, Arsenal trail Liverpool by six points (having played a game more). With 38 goals scored this season—an uptick thanks to Gabriel Jesus’ sensational return to form—the Gunners must maintain their momentum while navigating injuries, a challenging fixture list, and the fierce competition of an evolving Premier League.
The Current State of the Race
Arsenal’s victory over Brentford not only showcased their attacking prowess but also helped them marginally exceed expectations for this fixture, earning three points versus an expected 2.1. However, compared to the same matches played last season, Arsenal’s performance has seen slight regression:
- Points: -2 (39 vs. 41 after 18 games)
- Goals Scored: -3 (38 vs. 41)
- xG Difference: -5.5 (15.3 vs. 20.8)
- Goals Conceded: +2 (17 vs. 14)
For the same corresponding fixtures as last season (same team and same home or away, relegated teams replaced with promoted teams) Arsenal a bit further behind.
- Points: -5 (39 vs. 44)
- Goals Scored: -4 (38 vs. 42)
- xG Difference: -4.4 (+16.9 vs. +21.3)
- Goals Conceded: +3 (17 vs. 14)
These numbers suggest that while Arsenal remain in the title conversation, they’ve struggled slightly compared to last season’s efficiency and again leave themselves in a situation where they need to reel off a good run to make up ground.
This marginal drop-off could be attributed to injuries to key players like Martin Odegaard (missed 10 weeks), Bukayo Saka, who is out until at least March, and uncertainty surrounding Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu. On the positive side, Thomas Partey is playing some of his best football since joining Arsenal, while Gabriel Jesus’ six goals in four games have reignited Arsenal’s attacking output.
Meanwhile, Liverpool has shown remarkable consistency, gaining +3 points in corresponding fixtures compared to last season. Unlike most title challengers, they’ve avoided any significant dip in form—something that generally strikes every team at some point during a season. Arsenal’s challenge lies in maintaining high performance to capitalize on any potential slip, whether it’s brief or prolonged.
Manchester City, on the other hand, has fallen -12 points behind their 2023/24 performance, presenting Arsenal with a unique opportunity that they have capitalized on putting them 8 points in the rearview mirror.
Breaking Down the Remaining Fixtures
Arsenal’s remaining schedule is a mix of opportunities and daunting challenges, with everyone (bar Liverpool/Everton) having played everyone already there isn’t too much variation in the schedules but Arsenal’s is ever so slightly more favorable, rating as the easiest. With Saka unavailable for critical matches, the team will need to lean heavily on players like Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, and Leandro Trossard for creativity.
Key Fixtures to Watch
Manchester City (home) – February 2025 Arsenal’s clash against Manchester City will be played at the Emirates Stadium, giving the Gunners a significant advantage. While City’s form has dipped this season, their ability to control games and disrupt transitions remains a threat. Arsenal’s last victory over City at the Etihad was in 2015, highlighting the importance of leveraging home advantage this time around.
Key Stat: Arsenal has been solid at home this season, boasting an xG difference of +1.8 per game at the Emirates, a platform to push for a statement win against City.
Liverpool (Away) – April 2025 Anfield has often been a fortress for Liverpool, and their resurgence this season makes this fixture critical. Liverpool’s defensive improvements—reducing xGA compared to last season’s fixtures by 5.4—stand in sharp contrast to Arsenal’s ever so slight defensive regression. Arne Slot has adopted a more Arteta style of play dialing back the heavy metal play with a heavy dose of more control. Without Saka’s influence, Arsenal must find alternate routes to break down Liverpool’s defense and find a way to keep them quite in attack.
Key Stat: Arsenal has not won at Anfield since 2012. Their average xGA at Liverpool in the last five seasons is 2.1, suggesting a major defensive test.
Manchester United (away) – March 2025 Arsenal’s trip to Old Trafford will be anything but straightforward. Despite Manchester United’s inconsistent form this season, their performances at home have been stubborn. Arteta’s side must channel the discipline and energy that have defined their best displays this season.
Key Stat: Arsenal has won just three of their last 10 Premier League games away to Manchester United (2W 4L 4D), making this a critical test of their title credentials.
Southampton (Away) – May 2025 While Southampton are battling relegation, this fixture has historically been tricky for Arsenal. The Gunners have won just three of their last 12 Premier League games at St. Mary’s, often finding themselves frustrated against a disciplined and physical Southampton side. Given the stakes of the title race, this could be a potential banana skin.
Key Stat: Arsenal’s away record at Southampton over the last 10 games is 3W-4L-3D, underscoring the challenge they face in securing all three points.
The Numbers Game: How Arsenal Compares to Rivals
Liverpool: A Formidable Foe
Liverpool’s trajectory this season makes them the team to beat. They’ve improved across the board in corresponding fixtures:
- Points: +3 (45 vs. 42)
- Goals: +1 (45 vs. 44)
- xG Difference: +7.3 (24.6 vs. 17.3)
In attack they look as potent as ever. They have gotten a historic season from Mohamed Salah that has driven them to the top of the Premier League but it is a team that is deep in the attacking positions and will threaten any team they come up against.
Their defensive solidity, highlighted by a dramatic reduction in xGA (-5.4), makes them a well-rounded opponent. Crucially, Liverpool has yet to experience a dip in form this season. Arsenal must maintain strong performances and remain within striking distance to take advantage of any potential slip-ups.
Manchester City: A Surprising Vulnerability
Manchester City’s regression is unprecedented in the Pep Guardiola era:
- Points: -12
- Goals: -12
- xG Difference: -10.8
Their once-impermeable defense has shown cracks, conceding six more goals than last season. Arsenal’s ability to exploit these weaknesses in their February showdown could define the title race. What has plagued them is the inability to stop transitions and it has led to them conceding an unusually high number of great scoring chances for their opponents.
In attack, they have also taken a major step back. They are heavily reliant on Earling Haaland and when he isn’t scoring goals, they can look like they are playing down a man and that they are short on ideas.
Tactical Adjustments and Defensive Solidity
Defensive Solidity Against a Competitive League
While Arsenal’s xGA has increased marginally (+1.6), the strength of the league this season means even expected wins could turn into problematic encounters. Teams like Crystal Palace and Southampton, battling relegation or mid-table irrelevance, are just as likely to punish lapses as title rivals. The Premier League’s competitiveness underscores the importance of tightening Arsenal’s defense.
Creative Solutions Without Saka
With Saka sidelined, Ødegaard, Martinelli, and Trossard must take on more creative responsibility. Gabriel Jesus’ red-hot form (6 goals in 4 games) offers hope for sustained attacking output. However, Arsenal must ensure they remain versatile in their attacking play, avoiding predictability against low-block defenses.
Maximizing Partey’s Form
Partey’s commanding midfield displays provide stability and a platform for Arsenal’s attack. His ability to control games and shield the backline will be essential in high-stakes matches, especially against Liverpool and Manchester City.
What Must Arsenal Do to Win the Title?
Maximize Points in Winnable Fixtures
Fixtures against Southampton, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth are non-negotiable must-wins. With win probabilities of 79%, 69%, and 65%, Arsenal must secure nine points from these games to keep pace with Liverpool. Arsenal have used up their margin for error and must be getting a maximum return from these type of matches.
Exploit Rival Weaknesses
Manchester City’s defensive vulnerabilities and Liverpool’s occasional inconsistency against mid-table teams present Arsenal with opportunities to gain ground in head-to-head clashes.
Stay Clinical in High-Pressure Matches
Games at Anfield and the Etihad will be decided by fine margins. Arsenal must convert their chances efficiently and maintain defensive discipline to secure at least a draw in both games.
Conclusion: Can Arsenal Do It?
Arsenal’s title prospects rest on a knife’s edge. With 39 points and 38 goals after 19 games, they remain firmly in contention. The return of Partey and Jesus has bolstered their chances, but Saka’s absence and defensive vulnerabilities remain concerns. Their ability to navigate a difficult run of fixtures, maximize points against lower-tier teams, and win key head-to-head clashes will determine their fate.
Liverpool’s resurgence and remarkable consistency this season make them formidable opponents. However, no team is immune to challenges in a league as competitive as the Premier League. Whether due to fixture congestion, injuries, or even the mental strain of maintaining their high standards, a dip—even a brief one—remains a possibility. Arsenal’s task is clear: they must stay within striking distance and position themselves to capitalize should Liverpool falter, no matter how small the window of opportunity.
Manchester City’s surprising regression provides an added opening for Arsenal, but the Gunners’ fate ultimately rests in their own hands. Arsenal have been in Liverpool’s shoes recently and they need to take it a game at a time with unrelenting pressure each week to see if they can make them crack. With tactical adjustments, a renewed attacking edge, and the resilience that has defined their season, Arsenal could yet end their two-decade wait for Premier League glory.
This article was written in collaboration with Scott Willis of Cannon Stats. You can follow Scott on Bluesky or join his discord for his data insights.
