Arsenal v Chelsea; Premier League Match Preview

This week has encapsulated Arsenal’s season to a tee. The loss to Manchester City showed what happened when stupid mistakes happen. The win against Swansea showed what happens when you have hunger and desire.  And this Sunday we wonder, which of these two teams will show up against Chelsea for the first of an Epic double header – as both games outcomes will weigh on Arsenal.

Arsenal have a chance to make up ground on both Chelsea and Tottenham if they can manage to win this game. And while it’s not an easy task, they have to feel there is the possibility of chance. Chelsea in their last 7 home matches have only won 1. Hardly, the fortress that it was known for. They, like Arsenal show up for one match and disappear for another or do both in one match. However, anyone who think it will be easy can easily look across the Chelsea lineup and see some supremely talented players.

The hope for the Gunners has to be to add to Chelsea and Rafa Benitez’s misery. Rafa since coming to Chelsea hasn’t had the best of times and that has only been compounded by the fact that he has presided over 5 of poor home matches Chelsea have suffered through.

The opportunity is there for the taking. Again, as has always been the case this season is – which Arsenal team is going to show up. Chelsea (like Arsenal) have great talent in the attack but are questionable in defense. All season long they have shown a difficulty in handling pace through the middle, especially on the counter.  While I think the Starting XI from Wednesday will get the nod, with Giroud up top, there is a case for Theo to lead the line with Ox going head to head versus former Gunner, Ashley Cole.  Still, given Theo’s rate of success against Cole of late, and the fact that Giroud’s strength could give Terry trouble – I think that’s what will see.

For the midfield I suspect Wenger will return with the same midfield three he had this past Wednesday. Diaby and Coquelin supporting Jack Wilshere in the number 10 role. Diaby for all the concern of injuries, is as Wenger says, the closest midfielder we have who resembles what Patrick Vieira gave to this club. He has  superb touch and his excellent close control (surprising for a man so big)means he is hard to get off the ball. His real skill lies in the way he uses the ball, either dribbling past opponents or slipping passes to team-mates. I do not think it’s a conincidence that for the first 5 matches of the season we were rock solid with Diaby and wobbly without.

As for Coquelin, offers versatility to Arsenal in that he can play both in the midfield and as a fullback. He is a true box to box type who is strong in the challenge and swift of feet. His hustle on Wednesday kept pressure heeped on Swansea.

But the focus for the midfield will be Jack Wilshere who has gradually returned to his pre-injury form. While Santi in the 10 role is guile and trickery, Wilshere is sheer determination and guts. He offers not only strength and determination with his play but he uncanny foot skills not typical for the proto-typical English midfielder. He is in my opinion the only person on the English National Team who could slot into the tiki-taka of Spain and not look like a fish out of water.  Jack Wilshere stated emphatically this past Wednesday that he has returned, and with his blood and guts determination he will try and carry Arsenal on his back.

The midfield three as we’ve discussed it looked balanced against a Swansea side that has given not Arsenal trouble but has given many of the big teams problems. The key battle will be in the midfield where Arsenal go up against the likes of Lampard and Luiz.

But again all it really comes down to for Arsenal is staying focused and not committing the errors that took them out of the match back in September. Two mistakes in defensive coverage by Laurent Koscielny left  Torres free to give him the first goal and then let Torres set up Mata for the second. They were simple mistakes not flashes of brilliance that you say to yourself – “nothing you can do about that.” In fairness throughout this up and down season, it has mostly been of Arsenal’s own making that they’ve been on the negative side of matches.

In order for Arsenal to do anything against Chelsea at the Bridge they will need to have their thinking caps on and stay focused on the match at hand. Do that and they can walk out of the Bridge with all 3 points. Do it not – well you don’t need me to tell you about that.

Player to Watch:

Arsenal: Jack Wilshere. For all the reasons stated above and for no other reason than to watch the continued emergence of an Arsenal legend in the making.

Chelsea: Demba Ba. When we beat Newcastle 7-3 two of the Geordie’s goals were scored by him. He has already transplanted Fernando Torres as the tip of Chelsea’s attack.

How the match will play out:

Again that’s a good question because for both teams you just don’t know what you are going to get. The key to tell how it’s going to go for Arsenal is how well they start. The biggest adjustment Arsenal made against Swansea was Santi staying wide. For the first half he kept coming in the middle and it compacted Arsenal’s attack. In the second half he stayed wide pulling out the defence and allowing the midfield to have some space. They need to make sure if Santi is the wide made he stays there. And then they need to press as one – not one man pressing individually but as a team. Again in the 2nd half they improved that and forced a ton of Swansea errors. They need to make Chelsea make mistakes. It was the biggest reason why Arsenal beat Chelsea at the Bridge last season. They need to do it again this one.

Projected Starting Lineups:

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal:  Fabianski (back), Gervinho (international duty) Rosicky (calf) Arteta (calf)

Chelsea: Romeu (knee) Mikel (international duty), Moses (international duty), Benyoun (knee)

Leading Scorers:
Arsenal: Walcott 8

Chelsea:  Mata 7, Lampard 7, Torres 7

Assists Leaders:
Arsenal: Podolski 6, Walcott 6

Chelsea: Mata 8

Last Meeting (EPL):
Arsenal: 1

Chelsea: 2

Goals For:
Arsenal (away): 1.4

Chelsea (home): 2.2

Goals Against:
Arsenal (away): 0.8

Chelsea: (home): 0.9

Last Five:
Arsenal: LDWWW

Chelsea: DWLWW

Goal Difference:
Arsenal: 16

Chelsea: 24

Match Official:
Referee: Martin Atkinson. Matches 17, R1 Y68

Broadcast Information:
US: FoxSoccer Channel 8:30 AM EST

UK: SkySports 1 16.00  GMT

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Chelsea: 2