Arsenal vs Chelsea Review: Gunners Reach Carabao Cup Final After 4–2 Aggregate Win

Arsenal are going back to Wembley. Arsenal advanced to the Carabao Cup final after a 1-0 second-leg win at the Emirates completed a 4-2 aggregate result. Kai Havertz finished it in added time after a late break.

It was not pretty. It did not need to be. Arsenal entered the night with a one-goal cushion from a wild first leg. The second leg asked for control, discipline, and a clean sheet. Arsenal delivered all three, then added a late moment to put the tie beyond doubt.

This is the season’s first hard checkpoint. Arsenal now have a final on the calendar, not a narrative about progress. The Carabao Cup final is a chance to turn performance into something tangible. A side that has chased the biggest prizes all season just earned a clean, hard path to a major final.

First Lesson Learned: Arsenal can win the tie without winning the ball

The two-leg numbers tell you the story of Arsenal’s edge without pretending the second leg looked like a highlight reel. Across both legs, Arsenal generated 3.8 xG to Chelsea’s 1.3. Arsenal took 22 shots to Chelsea’s 24, yet Arsenal’s chances carried more weight. Arsenal also posted 4.2 post-shot xG on 8 shots on target, against Chelsea’s 1.7 on 7. That is separation in shot quality and finishing execution, not volume.

The second leg itself played out in a way that can frustrate fans. Arsenal accepted spells without the ball and without shots. Mikel Arteta managed risk, not aesthetics. The plan was simple. Keep the centre protected, block the middle lanes, and let Chelsea have the harmless parts of the pitch. When Arsenal had the ball, they used it to reset the game, not to force it.

Look at the combined possession and territory indicators and you see the trade Arsenal made. Chelsea held 56.8 percent possession. Arsenal sat at 43.2. Chelsea completed 898 passes from 1053 attempts. Arsenal completed 650 from 801. Chelsea had the higher field tilt, 52.1 to 47.9, and more final third entries, 82 to 67. Those numbers can tempt you into thinking Chelsea “controlled” the tie.

Arsenal controlled the danger. Arsenal created more expected threat, 5.3 to 3.6. Arsenal logged more deep touches, 67 to 54, and a tiny edge in Zone 14 touches, 24 to 23. That profile fits a team that picks its moments and enters the high-value areas with purpose, even with fewer possessions.

Pressing data backs up the same idea. Arsenal’s PPDA across both legs sat at 11.6, compared to Chelsea’s 21.2. Lower PPDA points to more frequent pressure on the ball. Arsenal did not press high every second. They pressed at the moments that mattered, then dropped into structure and forced play wide or backwards. That rhythm matters in a semi-final. It removes the cheap transitions that flip a tie.

Chelsea’s first-half shape slowed the game down. It left them short of threats in the areas that change a tie.

That break arrived in added time. Declan Rice carried the moment like a senior pro, found the pass, and Havertz finished it with calm. The goal looks like drama. The goal came from the exact match state Arsenal had managed for 90 minutes. Chelsea pushed numbers forward. Arsenal stayed connected, won the ball, and attacked the space left behind.

The takeaway for Arsenal fans is not “Arsenal can sit back.” The takeaway is that Arsenal can pick a game state, live inside it, and win it. That is what finals demand.

Second Lesson Learned: Rice and Zubimendi ran the match’s most important zone

This match never turned into an open duel. It turned into a test of midfield control without the ball. Arsenal passed that test through the partnership of Rice and Martín Zubimendi.

Chelsea completed more passes and spent more time in Arsenal’s half. Arsenal still limited clean entries into the box. That starts in the middle. Rice and Zubimendi protected the space in front of the centre-backs. They cut off straight-line passes into the forwards. They forced Chelsea into slower, wider sequences that Arsenal’s back line could read.

You can see the pattern in the combined defensive action counts. Arsenal recorded more tackles, 52 to 35, and more interceptions, 10 to 6. Arsenal also had more blocked passes, 13 to 6, plus more clearances, 49 to 41. That is not random. That is a unit defending as one, with the midfield pair setting the distances.

Rice’s night had two layers. First, he cleaned up. He broke up moves early, then moved the ball into safer areas to reset. Second, he acted as the release valve when Chelsea pushed forward late. The winner came from his pass into Havertz. The action fits the role he has taken this season. He does the unattractive work for 85 minutes, then still has the quality to decide a match with a single action.

Zubimendi’s impact showed up in the quieter parts of the game. He stayed available for the first pass out. He helped Arsenal keep the ball long enough to breathe. He also read Chelsea’s second balls well, which matters in a tie like this where corners and long throws can swing momentum. He delivered the cross for Gabriel’s best chance late on, a header that Marc Cucurella cleared. That moment mattered. Arsenal had not created much in open play. Zubimendi created a clean look anyway.

One more player deserves mention here, since selection shaped the balance of the match. Piero Hincapié played a role that blends fullback and third centre-back. He stepped out when needed, covered behind when the winger jumped, and still found one of Arsenal’s clearest first-half shots with a drive from range. Chelsea’s shape wanted to smother the wide areas and protect the box. Hincapié’s positioning helped Arsenal avoid getting pinned.

On the attacking side, Arsenal asked Noni Madueke to cover for Bukayo Saka. That is a tough task in a match where the opponent sits deep and invites crosses rather than gaps. Madueke found moments to beat his man and get deliveries in, even if the final ball did not land often enough. That still matters for what comes next, with more fixtures and Saka’s availability unclear.

The broader point is simple. Arsenal’s midfield and back line did not need a perfect attacking night. They needed to keep the tie stable. Rice and Zubimendi did that job, then added the match-winning contribution at the end.

Third Lesson Learned: Arsenal’s season now has a clear pressure point

A cup final creates a different kind of pressure. Arsenal have played well enough to win major trophies for a while now. They have not had many chances to prove it on a single day with a trophy waiting. This match pushes them into that arena.

The context matters. Arsenal are top of the Premier League. They are still alive in the FA Cup. They have moved deep in the Champions League. The schedule is not going to get any easier. The Carabao Cup final will land in the middle of that workload. Arsenal will face either Manchester City or Newcastle United at Wembley. Both bring their own set of challenges and problems. Both force Arsenal to execute under stress.

This second leg showed two things that connect directly to that final.

First, Arsenal can win ugly without losing themselves. There was a long stretch with little attacking output. Arsenal still stayed organised. The back four held the line. The midfield screened. William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães dealt with contact and aerial balls. Kepa Arrizabalaga made the saves he had to make, then stayed clean in his box on late set pieces. Finals often hinge on that kind of professionalism, not on highlights.

Second, squad management looks healthier than it did earlier in the season. Havertz returned from injury and ended the tie. Leandro Trossard helped Arsenal hold the ball and spring the late break. Arsenal rotated roles without losing structure. Even with key injuries, Arsenal found a way to protect the tie and still carry threat in the final minutes.

There is a cost, though. Arsenal played a match that demanded concentration for the full 90 plus added time. That type of night leaves marks, even without extra time. Arteta has to manage the next run carefully. Arsenal can chase four fronts. Arsenal still need the legs to do it in April and May.

So what do Arsenal take from this match analysis?

You take confidence in the defensive platform. Across both legs, Arsenal allowed 1.3 xG and conceded two goals, then shut Chelsea out at the Emirates. You take belief that Arsenal can win a semi-final even when the football looks tense and tight. You take a reminder that trophies often start with control, not style.

Conclusion

Three things stand out from Arsenal vs Chelsea, and they all point toward the same theme.

Arsenal won the tie with game management. The numbers across both legs show the edge, 3.8 xG to 1.3, plus stronger shot quality and a better threat profile. Arsenal did not need to dominate the ball. Arsenal needed to dominate the risk.

Rice and Zubimendi controlled the key space. They protected the back line, broke up attacks, and kept Arsenal stable through Chelsea’s late push. Rice then delivered the decisive pass. Havertz delivered the decisive finish.

Arsenal now have a season-defining pressure point. Wembley will test nerve, selection, and energy management. This semi-final showed Arsenal can handle a tense match state without collapsing into panic. That is a useful trait when silverware sits one game away.

The Carabao Cup final will not reward good intentions. It will reward the team who executes. Arsenal earned the right to take that test.