Match Preview: Arsenal v Aston Villa; Premier League Match Day 30

My first thought was: We are not going to win.  But that’s changed, sort of.

My reason for not expecting three points is because it’s our second game in four days (with a two day gap) whereas Villa haven’t played in fourteen days. Really good organisation there from the Premier League hierarchy.

Anyhow, I don’t think we’ll play badly, I don’t think we’ll be put to the sword by the likes of Heskey and I don’t think we’ll go down without a fight. Well, when I say “go down” I mean “play” – it just sounded a bit more dramatic. Aston Villa will be without Darren Bent, Richard Dunne, Fabian Delph and Ciaran Clark tomorrow. Charles N’Zogbia is also a doubt.

When you look back at the Everton game you realise that there wasn’t a lot of running from Van Persie and Ramsey, although they still worked hard and did what they had to do. With those two in mind, throw Andre Santos and Oxlade-Chamberlain into the equation and you have four of our very best players relatively fit – presuming Santos has reached full match-fitness after his injury. So with that in mind, it all seems fairly dandy. I can’t think anyone in particular that will be rested, although it is likely that Chamberlain will start. Obviously we won’t be fielding twelve men at the first whistle, but you get my point.

Now look at the momentum: Aston Villa have won three out of the eleven games they have played in 2012; Villa’s most recent victory came from a last-gasp goal against Fulham. They have no momentum; I think that two week break has hindered their chances. As for us, we have built up a fair amount of momentum winning all of our last five games. On top of that, we’ve scored seventeen goals in our last four home games. That’s an outstanding 4.25 goals per game. If you look at it in more depth, those goals have come against some tough opposition, and Tottenham. But in all seriousness, putting seven past Blackburn is quite impressive, and with the time it took Krul to get the ball back into play, I’m surprised we got one against Newcastle, let alone two!

Taking all of the above factors into account, my current thought is: we can win.

Anyway, that’s it from me, I’ll let DAG take over…

Thanks Myles.

Of course we can win. But will we?

There is a lot going in our direction. We are getting healthy at the right moment. For the first time in as long as I can remember we come into a match with out any fresh injury concerns. Additionally, we have a back 4 that is growing in confidence and consistency the longer it plays together.

With someone likely to drop some points at Stamford Bridge, Arsenal have a real opportunity to widen their gap and take hold of the Champion’s League spot they now control. We’ve talked about it before, they are the only ones who control their destiny and they can make a bigger statement by winning their 7th straight match (a feat they haven’t done since 2007). Focus and consistency are of the utmost importance at this point. The lack of commitment that was on display at the San Siro has no place in this club any more – a return of that form  – and well someone, either Spurs or Chelsea will close the gap in on the Gunners.

The good thing though is that confidence and commitment reign supreme at London Colney.  You only need to go to the club Web site and see the pictures of the team and the relaxed way they seem to be going about things. The tension of the task at hand does not seem to be getting to them and if anything Arsene Wenger and Robin van Persie deserve credit for making this feeling and attitude permeates through the squad.

Here’s another thing you know, should we win on Saturday then it will be the first March in recent history that we have not had a major stumble. Sure there is this match and the next  but at the same time we are in form and maybe, just maybe we’ve finally moved beyond our March stumbles.

How the Match Should Play Out:

I fully expect Arsenal to come out much the same way they did against Everton, trying to put Aston Villa to the sword early. The good thing is that Villa are not as collected defensively as Everton is and without Richard Dunne in their back line, sustained pressure early by the Gunners should open the game wide up for the them. Without Darren Bent and the possibility of N’Zogbia being out, only Gabby Agboblahor remains as the Villains most viable attack option. In the end he won’t be enough.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal. Alex Oxlade-Chmaberlain. If as Myles and I both expect there is some squad rotation then the Ox is likely to get a nod in place of Gervinho.

Aston Villa.  Gabby Agbonlahor. With Darren Bent out, Gabby moves to the middle, he hasn’t been the Gabby we remember under Martin O’Neill but he still has speed and skill at his disposal.

Projected Lineups:

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Coquelin (hamstring)  Frimpong (knee) Mertesacker (ankle) Wilshere (ankle)

Aston Villa: Bent (ankle) Dunne (shoulder) Delph (ankle)  Clark (knee).

Leading Scorers:
Arsenal:  Van Persie 26

Aston Villa:  Bent 9

Last Meeting (FA Cup):

Arsenal: 3

Aston Villa: 2

Goals For:
Arsenal (home): 2.2

Aston Villa (away): 1.1

Goals Against:
Arsenal (home): 0.9

Aston Villa: (away): 1.3

Last Five:
Arsenal: WWWWW

Aston Villa:  WDDLL

Goal Difference:
Arsenal: 19

Aston Villa: -4

Match Official:
Referee:  Phil Dowd (Matches 22, R3 Y88)

Broadcast Information:
US: Fox Soccer  Channel 11:00 AM EST

UK: ????? 1500 GMT

GAMEDAY CHAT: It’s Open!!!!!!

www.youaremyarsenal.com/gamedaychat

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Aston Villa: 0