Match Preview: Arsenal v Aston Villa; Taking Care of Unfinished Business

It seems like an eternity since the last match. It has been an eternity since Arsenal’s last league match  – a resounding win against Cardiff (even if it was left late.) The good news is that Arsenal not only have moved on in the FA Cup, they have a chance to regain the top spot if they win versus today’s opponent Aston Villa.

The bad news is that we are without Theo Walcott. I bring up Theo Walcott, not only due to the injury and the big miss he will be but because many of the pundits I’ve looked through, cite his absence as the reason Arsenal will only manage to eek out a draw against Villa.

Now, let’s not downplay the big gap that a player like Theo Walcott leaves at Arsenal. Theo has continued to grow into one of the leagues more lethal players and was making good headway to get to the top of the team scoring table. But that’s cut out. Unfortunately for Theo the ruptured ACL he suffered in the FA Cup versus Tottnum will keep him out of the lineup for the next 4 to 6 months.

It’s sad, but it is not the be all and end all of this club. Arsenal are in the title hunt because they did a lot of good things – like win without Theo in the lineup. For approximately two months, Theo sat sidelined with a stomach injury. In the meantime his teammates went on with impressive run after impressive run.

To discount Arsenal simply because Theo has gone down injured is giving no credence to what Arsenal have managed to accomplish so far this season. Additionally, it ignores the clear emergence of the likes of Serge Gnabry, the crafty and speedy German 18 year old who made Tottnum look absolutely substandard (because they are). It also ignores the fact that Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain comes back into the fold beginning today.

Both of those players will and can offer Arsenal exactly what Theo does – pace and guile. There can be discounting what they bring. Gnabry is ready to go now and should if performance is an indicator likely get the nod in games regularly. The Ox will need a few weeks to get back to full match fitness and will likely be an option off the bench as he gets fit.

Sure, Theo is a miss but Arsenal have more than enough talent to keep its run going.

Today’s task is against Aston Villa and similar to how quick pundits have been to point out that Theo’s absence is a big whole, they are also quick to point how different this Arsenal side are than 5 months ago when we lost 3-1 to Villa at home.

To recap, we lost. The mood post-match was dour. Infighting amongst the supporters was still rather vocal (let’s leave it at that.) Yes, the ref had an impact on the game but Arsenal were also still rather flat to begin with. And while I was hesitant to place the blame solely on the players (due to Anthony Taylor’s colossal fuck up of a game) the mistakes through the middle of the pitch that allowed Gabby Agbonlahor free reign to put us in dangerous positions were also a big part of why Arsenal lost.

Had we known then what we know now, I am not sure the vitriol would have been so vociferous. Had we known that the follow up to that match would have seen us sign Mesut Özil, then race to the top the table and seen the re-emergence of Mathieu Flamini we all would’ve been able to accept that loss . . . a little bit.

Arsenal shouldn’t have lost at home regardless of who had influence on the match or whatever. They are a better team than the one that lost on that day and it means that there is unfinished business for the team.

First order of business is for Wenger to decide whether or not to start Arteta or Flamini to clog up the middle. In the first fixture of the season, neither were available and with Ramsey, Wilshere and Rosicky all marauding forward it left all the space in the world for Agbonlahor to gather up speed and attack the box.

Either way this is going to be unlikely now both of defensive minded midfielders will be available. I lean towards Arteta as Wenger seems to favor him for his passing and then bringing on Flamini to completely shut it down.

The other question is who gets the nod on the wings.Özil fills out the center behind the striker role – that’s easy. Look for Wilshere to slot in alongside either Arteta or Flamini. And of course a healthy Olivier Giroud comes back up top.

All easy. Santi Cazorla will definitely get the spot on the left. Wenger will keep Podolski on the bench either as an option out wide or up top if Giroud is ineffective. That begs the question who fills out the right side.

The easy choice is Rosicky. But my concern here is that it makes us narrow with Rosicky and Cazorla preferring to cut inside in their attacks. That’s why I’d go with Gnabry. As much as he likes to go inside himself – he also knows how to attack wide go deep to the corner and either cross in or attack the 18 yard box.

The problem for Arsenal is that by playing too narrow we allow teams to stack the middle and limit our chances. We’ve been good at getting in the gaps but if you have the ability to stretch it out wide you should use it. It pulls the opposition middle apart and creates space for the midfielders to effectively operate in.

You simply need that width to create the necessary space between the midfield and back four and open up the opportunities for chances on goal.

However, if Wenger opts for Rosicky, its still more than enough in terms of creativity and guile to create chances. Rosicky, has been one of the stars of the season. He puts in solid performance after solid performance and is showing that even in his later stages of his career he has a lot to offer.

All in all, the loss of Theo is huge. It would be for any team. But the caliber of a team is measured by what it does when it misses those kind of players. Arsenal have shown all season long that even with key players injured that they are then able to challenge for silverware.

It’s why in the end, I think it will be a cagey affair but I still think that Arsenal are infinitely better than people (still today) give them credit for.

It’s an Arsenal win.

Probable Lineups:

Injuries & suspensions:
Arsenal: Ramsey (thigh)  Diaby (knee),  Walcott (ACL) Bendtner (ankle)

Aston Villa: Herd (hamstring), Bennett (back), Kozak (broken leg), N’Zogbia (Achilles), Okore (knee)

Match Official:
Referee: Neil Swarbick (Matches: 9. R0 Y28 PK 2)
Assistants: Ledger, Halliday
Fourth Official: Atkinson

Head to Head:

Broadcast Information:
US: NBC Sports Network 3:00 PM EST

UK:  Sky Sports 1 20.00 GMT

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 3

Aston Villa: 1

Match Facts (courtesy FourFourTwo)

• Aston Villa have lost 7 of 11 home matches, conceding first in 7 of their last 10 at Villa Park.
• Only Sunderland have picked up fewer points than Villa at home this season, with no side scoring fewer home goals than the Villains (7).
• Only Crystal Palace have averaged fewer match goals than Villa (2.20 GPG).
• Only Spurs have won as many points as Arsenal on the road (22) and the Gunners have won 8 of their last 10 matches against middle-third teams on the road.
• Arsenal are unbeaten in 14 Barclays Premier League trips to Villa Park, winning seven and drawing seven.
• Aston Villa have had loss/loss results in their last seven home defeats against Arsenal
• The Gunners’ 14 game unbeaten run at Villa is their longest away run without defeat against a single side in Premier League history.
• Arsenal conceded two penalties in the reverse fixture against Aston Villa this season for the first time in the PL since Feb 5 2011 v Newcastle.
• Aston Villa have had over 2.5 goals in their last three matches against top-six teams
• No team has scored the first goal in more Premier League games this season than Arsenal (15). Conversely, no side has scored the first goal on fewer occasions this season than Aston Villa (5).
• The Villains have kept just two clean sheets in their last 21 home league matches.
• Arsenal have had more goals in the second half in their last four away matches
• Arsene Wenger’s side have won just two of their last nine Premier League matches in January (D2 L5).
• Aston Villa have not had both teams scoring in six of their last seven home matches
• The Gunners have scored more headed goals than any other team in the league this season (9).
• Aston Villa have won only one of their last nine Premier League home games in January (W1 D4 L4).