Match Preview: Arsenal v Cardiff; Looking to Start the New Year Like It Ended at the Top.

Your eyes don’t deceive you – its 2014 and Arsenal sit atop the Barclay’s Premier League table. There is only one slight problem with that statement – it’s only 1 January.  And while it’s not the end of the season, Arsenal sitting atop the league table at the turn of the calendar year is still significant.

If recent trends hold, then you might predict that Arsenal should win the league. Why do I say that? Well, in the last 4 seasons the team that was atop the table to start the new year, would go on to win the league. As we mentioned and as we all know, that would be Arsenal right now.

Still there is plenty of football to play and today Arsenal resume their run for the title as they welcome Cardiff City or Vincent Tan FC if you like, to the Emirates.

When the two teams last squared off, Arsenal were cautioned that were running into a tricky fixture. Cardiff had gotten a few positive results against some of the big boys and many thought travelling to Wales would present Arsenal with a banana peel.  In the end while there were moments when Cardiff looked threatening it was the visitors whom walked away with all three points after Aaron Ramsey nailed a brace bookending a Mathieu Flamini goal.

Now, Cardiff come in to the Emirates worse for the wear having to endure the madness of King Vincent.  For whatever reason the Malaysian billionaire has seen fit to replace his chief player personal person with a 23 year old who was unable to get a UK VISA and then more recently, decided to sack manager Malky Makay.  Throw in changing the primary colors of the team and booing his own team at the end of last week’s match and well, Vincent Tam has made Cardiff City a shell of its worrisome self.

However, for me it presents more of a challenge for Arsenal. I always hate playing these teams that have a desire to show their pride. Athletes like nothing more than to prove a point and with Tan’s meglomaniacal ways they’d probably like nothing more than to thump Arsenal and stuff it in Tan’s shoulder high pants.

And Arsenal are enduring their own issues. During the presser prior to the match Arsene Wenger confirmed that Olivier Giroud and Kieran Gibbs join Mesut Özil and Aaron Ramsey in the trainer’s room.  Additionally, Theo Walcott, Jack Wilshere and Nacho Monreal all face late fitness tests. Monreal due to illness and Wilshere and Theo for knocks they picked up versus Newcastle.

I am hopeful – or stupid – take your pick, that the three will be fine and fit for the match.

Arsenal continue to impress. While December did not start well for us, they finished it in fine form. They first dispatched West Ham in a span of 10 mins and then dug in deep to hold off an in form Newcastle. Before you discount that impressive win, remember that Newcastle this season have already beaten, Chelsea, United and Tottenham. While I’ve felt for a while that Arsenal are in for the title, pundits are finally acknowledging that these type of gritty wins are a sign that things for the Gunners are different.

While we still lack a solid back up for Olivier Giroud, there is enough depth elsewhere that even players out for a few days are being covered by players of good quality who can fill in the gaps. Should  a few of these additional players miss out on this match, the likes of Gnabry and Podolski can come on and still offer Arsenal enough quality to dispatch Cardiff.

I’d always caution over confidence. As the season has shown, the league is as unpredictable as ever. The visitors still boast some impressive talent in the likes of Wittingham and Fraiser Campbell. Campbell being the most worrisome of their players as he has an uncanny knack of finding the back of the net when you least want him to.

However, Cardiff do bring an anemic team into the Emirates. Arsenal boast the most accurate shooters in the league while Cardiff have the worst. Arsenal allow an average of just under a goal per game at the Emirates while Cardiff only manage to average .6 goals per game on the road. Conversely at home Arsenal are closing in on an average of 2 goals per game at home whilst Cardiff allow close to 2 goals per game on the road. Statistically it doesn’t look good for the visitors.

But as matches against the likes of Barnsley and Blackburn last year proved, we could look like Bayern on paper, but if we don’t show up we won’t win. And that’s been one of the most impressive things about Arsenal this season – they always manage to show up – even if it isn’t for the full 90 minutes. Arsenal are showing an ability to find goals when they need them. Whether it’s chasing that second late in the game to end the match or finding the first goal to open the match up Arsenal have found a way to score.  It’s a maturity and strength that hasn’t been associated with Arsenal in recent years.

If the squad is threadbare for this match, then they will need to call this new found strength to get through this match. Still the talent level at the club is such right now that the belief and ability is there to get through a Cardiff squad adrift in turmoil.

I fully expect that at the end of the day Arsenal will start off 2014 much like they ended 2013 – at the top of the table.

And that will make this a very Happy New Year!!

Projected Lineups:

Injuries & suspensions:
Arsenal:  Özil (shoulder) Giroud (ankle) Ramsey (thigh)  Diaby (knee),  Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee), Sanogo (back)

Cardiff: Bellamy (knee), Taylor (unspecified)

Match Official:
Referee: Jonathon Moss (Matches: 11. R2 Y39 PK 5)
Assistants: Long, Child
Fourth Official: Gibbs

Head to Head:

Broadcast Information:
US: NBC Sports Extra 10:00 AM EST

UK:  Arsenal Player 15.00 GMT (audio only)

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Cardiff: 0

Match Facts (courtesy FourFourTwo)

• Arsenal are unbeaten in the last 12 matches in all competitions against Cardiff, winning 7 and drawing 5.
• Cardiff are unbeaten in 3 league trips to Arsenal (W1 D2), though the most recent of these came back in 1962.
• Arsenal have only scored 16 times in nine Premier League home games this season.
• Only Everton have conceded as few goals as Arsenal (18) this season in the top-flight.
• Only 18 different players have started a Premier League game for Cardiff this season, fewer than at any other Premier League club.
• Arsenal have the best shooting accuracy (54.5%) and Cardiff the worst (35.7%) in the Premier League this season.
• Cardiff have fashioned more attempts from indirect free-kick moves than any other side this season (20 – almost three times as many as Arsenal (7)
• Arsenal’s substitutes have provided four assists this season, more than any other team.
• The Gunners have conceded fewer fouls than any other Premier League team this season (184) but seven clubs have received fewer yellow cards.
• Of the seven players to have picked up a league-high six yellow cards in the Premier League this season, Mathieu Flamini has committed the fewest fouls (13)