Match Preview: Arsenal v Southampton; Time to refocus

It is being billed as two of the surprise stories of the season finally meeting up. Arsenal’s run to the top of the Premier League table and Southampton’s unlikely climb into the top 4 picture. Both of the club are set to put their ambitions on the line as one of the best attacking sides in the Premier League takes one of the best defensive sides.

Each season the Premier league presents us with a story that we didn’t expect. This season however, the campaign is rife with them. From our own Arsenal coming out like buck shot and running to the top of the Premier League and Southampton looking every bit a top 4 side (moreso than Tottenham and Liverpool.) We’re obviously impressed with what we’ve done but as someone who likes surprises, I love what Southampton have done under Pochettino.

They are, along with Arsenal disproving the myth that English talent can play expressive, free flowing football. They are also dispelling myths that many non-English talents can’t play defense as the heart of their defense are showing a distinct propensity for shutting down the opposition.  If Southampton weren’t playing Arsenal this weekend, I’d be rooting for them regardless of the opponent.  They’ve just done so good.

But for us all that matters is how do we respond to the loss to Manchester United. Typical in the aftermath was plenty of reactions that talked about us beginning our slide down the table. Pundits immediately hailed the resurgence of United and the decline of Arsenal, whilst ignoring many of the facts of the match. The important fact is we lost. Okay we get that. But United were hardly rampant.  They hardly had anything outside of Van Persie’s header. The Arsenal defense, with Vermalen slotting in wasn’t outplayed or outgunned. Sometimes you make a mistake as we did playing the header and you get paid.

Arsenal were also dealing with the flu bug going through the team. It hit up Mertesacker. Flamini, Arteta, and Özil all had it. And while it wasn’t the reason for the loss it hardly helps. Arsenal come into this match healthy and getting healthier. Many of our internationals had breaks either given or enforced. Özil played only one match as did Mertesacker. Koscielny’s red against the Ukraine saw him dismissed and “rested” for the French final match of their playoff. Giroud also got a break. Finally, Arsenal can be bouyed that Theo Walcott is back and is in the squad against his former club.

Theo has been one of our biggest misses. Only featuring in one match since signing Özil the pacy winger will give a further dimension to Arsenal’s attacking options. When fully fit, he is in my opinion the one player who will greatly benefit from latching on to Özil’s passes. Theo as he has matured has learned to time his runs to get behind opposing defenses which will in time nurture itself into a fine partnership with the German. I am looking forward to it. But for tomorrow, I think it’s unlikely he starts.

I know many want to see Wilshere play more but the problem with either Ramsey or Wilshere out wide is that naturally narrows our play. That’s why until Theo is healthy, I’d love it if Wenger gave Gnabry a shot. In the match against United, our best chances and the whole dynamic of the game changed immediately after bringing on the rising German star. Gnabry came on used his speed and head to get behind Evra, exploit the space and create some chances.

They need this. Arsenal need to keep Luke Shaw honest and force him to think about maurauding forward.

It’s another test for Arsenal. Southampton have been solid, they sit in 3rd and they have a goal differential of 10. They’ve won at Anfield and drew at Old Trafford. But in none of their games have they played against a team that will want the ball as much as Arsenal do. Which presents its own test to the visitors. Arsenal have to exert themselve and be prepared for the likelihood that Southampton will look to press us deep in our end – another reason to have the pacy Gnabry playing – as an outlet on the counter.

Arsenal will have to find a way to deal with that and take the match by the scruff of the neck. It won’t be easy. It will likely be a harder test for the Gunners than United was because Southampton like to have the ball as well and have proved much better with it, than our last opponents.

It would’ve been great if this match had happened before the international break in order to exorcise that United loss. But who knows, we may have been leggy. The break came at the right time and for the most part we’re all rested.

A loss to Southampton at home would definitely mean a period of reflection – I mean browbeating by certain pundits and so called supporters. A draw would be fine as it would likely keep Arsenal top of the league regardless of what others do. A win however, sends a message and Arsenal have been sending messages all season. The message is that they are here and they will have a say in the title scrap. They need to get back to making that message loud and clear.

Take advantage of being at home. Take advantage of the rest we’ve had and the return of one of our better players. Build on what has already been established and let everyone once again take notice that Arsenal are here (at the top) to stay.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal. Theo Walcott. As mentioned he likely will be relegated to super-sub status. But that’s okay. He still has the chance to add a dimension to Arsenal’s attack. Time for Arsenal to turn it up a notch with the Englishman back in the fold.

Southampton. Rickie Lambert. Since moving over from Norwich he has been part and parcel of the Southampton rise. He has the ability to impose himself in games and Arsenal’s tandem of Koscielny and Mertesacker will need to play as smart as ever.

Probable Lineups:

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal:  Diaby (knee),  Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee) Podolski (hamstring), Sanogo (back) Flamini (Suspended – 1 game)

Southampton: Cork (ankle), Do Prado (knee)

Leading Scorer:

Arsenal: Ramsey 6

Southampton: Lambert 4

Assists:
Arsenal: Giroud 4, Ramsey 4, Özil 4

Southampton: Lambert 3

Last Meeting (EPL):
Arsenal: 1

Southampton: 1

Last 5:
Arsenal: DWWWL

Southampton: WDWDW

Goals For:
Arsenal (home): 2.2

Southampton (away): .8

Goals Against:
Arsenal (home): 1

Southampton (away) : .6

Goal Differential:
Arsenal: 12

Southampton: 10

Match Official:
Referee: Mark Clattenburg (Matches: 6. R0 Y22 PK 1)
Assistants: Beck, Holmes
Fourth Official: D’ Urso

Broadcast Information:
US: NBC Sports Network 10:00 AM EST

UK: MOTD 1 (highlights) Arsenal Player (audio only)

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YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Southampton: 1

Match Facts (courtesy FourFourTwo)

• Arsenal have not lost a home league game against Southampton since November 1987, winning 13 and drawing five of their 18 matches since.
• Only Arsenal (22) have won more points in the Barclays Premier League since the start of September than Southampton (18).
• Southampton’s win ratio against Arsenal in the Premier League (14%) is the lowest of any side they’ve played more than three times in the competition.
• The Gunners have not failed to score in two successive Premier League games since August 2012.
• Arsenal have the chance to win five successive Premier League games at the Emirates for the first time since April 2012.
• Southampton have conceded just eight goals in their last 14 Premier League games and have never conceded more than once in a match during this run.
• Southampton have faced fewer shots on target than any other side in the Premier League this season (31).
• Southampton have conceded six or more goals in six different Premier League games – the last two of which have been away at Arsenal (Sept 2012 and May 2003).
• Aaron Ramsey has netted 11 times in 18 competitive appearances for Arsenal this season, this after scoring 11 in his previous 150 competitive appearances for the club before 2013-14.
• Of the seven players to have a league-high four assists so far this season, three are Arsenal players (Giroud, Ozil and Ramsey).

Tell us what you think? Can Arsenal overcome an insurgent Southampton? Who do you think are likely to start for the Gunners? Join in the conversation.