Match Preview: Southampton v Arsenal; Modify the St. Mary’s Mojo

Arsenal’s fourth-round FA Cup tie with Southampton provides an opportunity for the Gunners to change their fortunes at St. Mary’s.

Southampton’s home ground has been less than kind to Arsenal: The Gunners have not won there in 13 years and have just two wins in eight visits to the Saints’ home since 2001.

You might think karma doesn’t look great for Saturday’s trip, either. After all, Southampton approaches this matchup on a real high, having beaten Liverpool away on Wednesday to advance to the EFL Cup Final at Wembley.

The Saints produced an impressive display of defending and counterattacking at Anfield, a game plan that could trouble Arsenal as well. They also carry confidence that they can overcome the Gunners from their 2-0 win in the previous round of the EFL Cup.

However, this match could unfold in quite a different fashion. First of all, the midweek win at Liverpool came at a cost. Already suffering from multiple injuries, Southampton lost starting midfielder James Ward-Prowse to a chest injury and center forward Jay Rodriguez to an ankle problem.

That could be a symptom of another problem, a cramped schedule that will see the Saints play nine matches in the month of January. Arsenal will have played two fewer.

And while Southampton loses players to the treatment table, Arsenal enjoys returns from injury absences. Forward Danny Welbeck has eased his way back to match fitness with three substitute appearances this month, fullback Hector Bellerin is ready again after a second injury layoff, and forward Theo Walcott returns after almost six weeks out.

As a result, Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger has options and depth that Southampton manager Claude Puel doesn’t share.

Where Wenger’s choices are more restricted, though, is in central midfield. Only two first-team central midfielders, Francis Coquelin and Aaron Ramsey, are available. With Granit Xhaka serving the first of a four-game suspension and Mohammed Elneny still at the Africa Cup of Nations for at least another week, Wenger will have to weigh the risks of sending out his last remaining charges in that area.

The risk appears heightened with two crucial Premier League encounters next week.

Mitigating that risk would mean tapping a young player for an important role. Wenger has identified Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Jeff Reine-Adelaide, and Alex Iwobi, the eldest of that trio at 20, as his backup options.

One does wonder where this leaves Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, who has occasionally taken a more central role with some distinction. Perhaps more definitively as a wide attacking midfielder, where he’s enjoyed his most productive season since joining Arsenal from Southampton.

Will he get the nod there again over Welbeck, Lucas Perez, Iwobi, and Alexis Sanchez?

Whatever the selection in more forward areas, Arsenal’s players should have the quality to trouble the Southampton defense bereft of its early-season starting duo of José Fonte and Virgil Van Dijk. The former left the South Coast for West Ham, while the latter is one of the Saints’ many infirm.

The question, as ever with cup ties, is will the Arsenal team have enough cohesion and motivation to overcome a determined opponent on home turf. The Gunners did—just—in their third-round visit to Preston North End. The answer will need to be more definitive to modify their St. Mary’s mojo on Saturday.

Key Matchup

Shane Long against Arsenal’s central defenders. The Irishman, who scored the tie-clincher in Southampton’s 1-0 win on Wednesday, is a pesky opponent. He’s a master of the sly nudge. Long’s misses in the two teams’ league encounter kept the door open for Arsenal’s late victory, and whoever Wenger selects in defense will need to keep Long out of those threatening positions.

Where to Worry

With a relatively untested partnership in central midfield, Arsenal might struggle to establish any kind of flow. That’s a bigger concern in this match because Southampton is adept at disrupting the opposition’s progress in midfield. If Arsenal don’t reach quick understandings in midfield and elsewhere—as we’ve seen other mix-and-match lineups suffer from—the attack could really sputter.

Match Verdict

Another cagey, difficult affair could await. Southampton will try to compensate for fatigue and a depleted roster by keeping the Gunners at arm’s length. Arsenal will need to call on patience and persistence again.

Players to Watch

Arsenal. Danny Welbeck. The England man gets his first start since last May. He’s come close to scoring in two of his three substitute appearances this month and has the speed and power to get away from Southampton’s makeshift back line.

Southampton. Oriol Romeu. Southampton’s defensive midfielder was the standout performer in his team’s semifinal clincher at Anfield. He seemed to know where Liverpool was heading before Liverpool’s players did. Similarly adept interceptions and tackles on Saturday will frustrate Arsenal.

Injuries and Suspensions

Arsenal: Mertesacker (match fitness), Cazorla (Achilles), Debuchy (match fitness), Xhaka (suspended), Elneny (international duty)
Southampton: McCarthy (hamstring), Targett (hamstring), Pied (knee), Austin (shoulder), Van Dijk (ankle), Hesketh (ankle), Rodriguez (ankle), Boufal (knee), Ward-Prowse (chest)

Probable Lineups

Arsenal: Ospina – Bellerin Mustafi Gabriel Gibbs – Coquelin Maitland-Niles – Lucas Iwobi Oxlade-Chamberlain – Welbeck

Southampton: Forster – Cédric Yoshida Stephens McQueen – Clasie Romeu Davis – Redmond Long Tadic

Match Officials

Referee: Kevin Friend
Assistant referees: P Kirkup, S Beck
Fourth official: T Robinson

Broadcast Information

UK: BT Sport, 1730 GMT
US: Fox Sports 1, Fox Soccer2Go, DirectTV Now, Sling Blue, 12:30 PM EST

YAMA Prediction

Southampton 0 – 1 Arsenal

The Manager’s Take (Courtesy Arsenal.com)

Southampton are on a high because they just qualified in the League Cup at Liverpool. So we are warned, and some players who come in will need to be on the front foot from the start on.

They produced a fantastic performance against Liverpool [in the EFL Cup semi-final], so overall that makes the game even more interesting and more difficult as well.

They are not short of confidence at the moment and will certainly have a big support, but it’s an FA Cup game and we want to qualify.

Match Facts (Courtesy BBC.com)

• Southampton have kept clean sheets in four of their last five games against Arsenal in all competitions
• This is the first FA Cup meeting between Arsenal and Southampton since the 2003 final, which the Gunners won 1-0 courtesy of a Robert Pires goal
• Southampton have never beaten Arsenal in an FA Cup tie (semi-final in 1926/27, sixth round in 1978/79 and the final in 2002/03)
• Southampton could become the first team to knock Arsenal out of both domestic cups in the same season since Manchester United in 1982/83
• Arsenal have progressed from 16 of their 20 FA Cup fourth round ties under Arsene Wenger, losing only to Leeds (1996/97), Leicester (1999/2000), Bolton (2005/06) and Stoke (2009/10)
• The Gunners have won their last five away FA Cup matches in a row – they have never won six consecutively in the competition’s history
• After losing back-to-back games against Everton and Man City, the Gunners have since gone six games unbeaten in all competitions (W5 D1)