Match Preview: UCL Qualifier: 2nd Leg Arsenal v Udinese Calcio (1-0 agg)

How did we come to this point? How did a team so used to getting into the Champion’s League find itself with a must-win situation just 2 1/2 weeks into the new campaign? Lets make no mistake about it, the Arsenal team that takes the pitch against Udinese tonight will find itself in a match it must win if it wants to go on to group stages of Europe’s premier football competition.

Arsenal sit in the lead 1-0 on aggregate going into the second leg of this match. But the spectre of injuries and the depatures of both Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri have raised the temperature on this match. It has also created a general feeling amongst some of the fans and punditry that Arsenal will go out tonight.

There are surely some worrying signs. After going up against Udinese 1-0 last week, Arsenal spent the better part of the second half letting the Italians have their way in the midfield.  If not for some stellar individual performances and a cross bar this could be an entirely different story we’re telling today. Udinese surely showed throughout the second half of last week’s match why they are the hardest CL opponent we’ve had in this leg of the competition.

Di Natale is an absolute beast. His skill and speed defy his age. He gets the ball and is constantly looking for a scoring chance. He is the kind of player I would love wearing the Red and White.  What Di Natale suffered from last week is either the inexperience of the rest of his side or a concern that Arsenal could hit them on the counter if they pressed too much. Many of the chances that Di Natale had were followed by a little hissy fit at the fact he had not been supported by his team.

I am under no illusion that is an easy task for the Gunners but there are signs that Arsenal can and should win this match. Let’s first talk about the record in Italy. Arsenal have yet to lose to Italian sides in Europe. They are also an outstanding 9-0 in playoff matches scoring an astounding 22 goals versus 2 conceded. While last week looked like it could end that – the experience this side has in Europe can’t be overlooked. But those kind of records don’t score goals and they don’t hold clean sheets they are merely a glimmer of hope.

The biggest things in our favor are this:

As  much as Udinese were able to apply pressure in the second half it became clear that in the last 15 minutes of the match they were gassed. Remember Serie has yet to start so Udinese are still in their pre-season. Additionally, they are historically slow starters to their seasons taking a few matches to really get going. Had they had the ability to fly right out of the gate, their scoring and style might have led them to a better position in the Serie A table – or at least meant they didn’t need GD to secure 4th. We need to take advantage of their lack of form. And use our training to our advantage.

The other thing  to remember about this match is that for Arsenal all it takes is one away goal. One goal from either Walcott, Gervinho or Robin Van Persie all but seals this tie shut. Two goals kills it off. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s start with one goal. While our club doesn’t look all that appealing to many, there is still enough talent there to get one in the net. One goal means the Italians have to score 3. They cannot draw either. The Italians either have to win 2-0 or 3-1 to move on. Defencively, I just don’t see them having the ability to shut us down completely. Benatia and Neuton – especially Neuton didn’t seem to be able to handle our speed all too well. They each got yellow cards in the opening minutes because of that.

Arsenal through Theo Walcott made it a point to attack Neuton. If he plays there again, I look for more of the same. He was the weak link last week and allowed us to have joy along that side. Arsenal should also be boosted by the return of Robin Van Persie in the middle of the attack. Last week Chamakh was largely ineffective and was in my opinion, one of the reasons we didn’t score more. An attacking line of Van Persie, Gervinho and Walcott are more than enough to cause the Udinese defence issues.

The key for us will be how sound we play defencively. I was impressed that against Udinese last week given all the pressure they were applying we didn’t crumble. In a match like that last year where we gave the opposition room to play, we were likely to concede a goal.

The biggest issue I saw last week was allowing Udinese to have too much time and space in the midfield to build up their attack. We didn’t press or attack the man with the ball until they were well into our part of the pitch. This is one of the reasons why I would advocate a midfield of Song AND Frimpong tonight. Use two DMs to slow down the attack and clog up the midfield. Plus Frimpong seems to be better going forward and a better passer than Song is which is useful when trying to build a counter-attack.

I noticed last week that Udinese were trying to dink the ball over the defenders in the final third. A clear indication that they thought our high-line was a weakness.  Honestly, it didn’t work. Our cover was solid. Gibbs made a couple positional errors but overall he was sound. If this how they will attack the back four we may be better off for it.

Both clubs realize they have little room for error. Both clubs also have injury issues. For Arsenal its in the midfield predominantly, for Udinese it is in defence. Which injury riddled squad advances gets the glory of Champion’s League. The other frustration and the Europe Cup.

Arsenal Projected Line Up :

Szczesny, Sagna, Vermaelen, Djourou, Traore, Song, Rosicky, Ramsey, Gervinho, Walcott, Van Persie (c)

YAMA Prediction:

Arsenal: 1

Udinese: 2