The 2022/23 Premier League season was always going to be a strange one. Just browse Match.Center or some other analytical platforms and you would see that is because the focus at betting sites was set to shift away from domestic action to the mid-season World Cup.
A stranger talking point emerged before the season even got to that stage though. That was Arsenal’s storming start as the Gunners were undoubtedly the Premier League success story of the early season. More so than Erling Haaland? Well, collectively yes.
From nowhere to Premier League title contenders. Few would have snapped up the pre-season odds on Arsenal winning the league. We’ll look at those odds here and ask how exactly do punters pick out long outsiders when it comes to the Premier League?
40/1 Outsiders
We all know the current status of Arsenal. They are flying and the Mikel Arteta project is gaining serious momentum. A lot of that has been down to man management and trust in the youth like Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.
But we are not going to get into all that. It’s the Premier League odds that we are more interested in. 2022/23 pre-season Arsenal were 40/1 outsiders to win the league at most betting sites.
For a team that missed the top four on the final weekend of the previous season, would that have looked like a viable football betting prospect? Probably not. But at least more so than Leicester’s 500/1 title-winning 2015/16 season of course.
That season by the Foxes was just remarkable. It was a buzz that shook up the Premier League status quo briefly and that’s always exciting. Arsenal coming through the ranks to lift the 2022/23 crown wouldn’t be quite up there. But it would still be huge
What Chance At Long Odds?
40/1 odds in the Premier League Winner Market. Just think about that for a moment. Not taking bookmaker margins into account, what exactly is a 40/1 outsider? Outside hopes in the Grand National are shorter prices than that.
A 40/1 shot is an implied probability of 2.4%. That’s basically the chance that betting sites gave Arsenal at the start of the season of winning the league title. It’s a paltry number. Should they do it, it would be Arsenal’s first since their “Invincibles” in the 2003/04 season. So bookies naturally have a cynical eye cast over the market.
But that quote represents the measure of exactly what Arsenal are defying at the moment. This leads us to an interesting look at just how much the market odds have shortened on Arsenal getting the title.
Is 7/1 A Realistic Quote?
After such a good run of form at the start of the season, Arsenal had been backed into a quote of 7/1 in the Premier League title race. That’s a 12.5% chance of landing the title.
The reason that Arsenal’s odds were so long pre-season was not only because it’s been ages since they have been a title contender, but because of Manchester City and to a degree, Liverpool. City had purchased arguably the best goal-scoring machine on the planet in Erling Haaland.
Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool have been annual challengers for the top spot. But nothing’s ever cut and dry. Liverpool weren’t up to par through roughly the first third of the new season, so their price drifted.
Chelsea look like a work in progress with new manager Graham Potter. Tottenham still look capable of getting all Spursy about things and Manchester United are another Premier League giant that are well below the status at which they want to be.
Arsenal clearly are not 40/1 contenders in the current scheme of things. A 7/1 shot is a far more realistic quote.
It’s Man City Isn’t It?
Manchester City are a ridiculous 1/5 odds-on quote to win the Premier League. That’s despite them playing catch up to Arsenal through the first third of the marathon. We have to convert that to implied probability as well.
Manchester City’s probability of winning the Premier League is 83% in what, at the time of writing, could be a two-horse race. Sure Erling Haaland could get abducted by aliens, and Pep Guardiola could jump ship from the Etihad and into the England hot seat if Gareth Southgate’s World Cup plans don’t go to plan.
Stranger things have happened. This year, Noble Yeats won the Grand National at a quote of 40/1 from absolutely nowhere. One betting site offered a single bet of 40/1 on Man City, Liverpool & Chelsea to Finish in the Top 3 plus Watford, Burnley and Norwich to get Relegated. That’s exactly what happened in the 2021/22 season.
It Can Be Done
The Europa League is an annoying factor in Arsenal’s EPL bid. Winning it rewards a spot in the Champions League, which takes the pressure off a top-four finish on the domestic front. Would the Gunners fans take an “oops” in the Europa League for a deep Premier League title run? Very probably.
Defying 40/1 odds is no mean feat. We’re not talking about the dreamer’s approach, these are what the numbers say. The numbers will change the longer the season goes on of course.
But the more the Gunners stay in the race, one thing is for certain. Anyone who was savvy enough to take Arsenal at their pre-season 40/1 quote to win the Premier League will have some serious bragging rights.
More often than not, when you read about punters winning bets at huge odds, it’s often the dreamers, the ones who hoped and believed just a little bit harder. Just kidding. It was total luck. If you would like to place bets on the Premier League, you can find all the necessary information about bookmakers, their odds and offers at Match.Center.
