West Ham vs Arsenal; Statistics Pack

After negotiating the difficult Christmas period with mixed results, Arsenal looks to build on their New Year’s Day 4-1 win against Fulham when they take on West Ham in the lunchtime kickoff. With the showdown with Chelsea at the Emirates the following weekend, Unai Emery will be looking to gain maximum points from a fixture that could prove to be not as straightforward as we all hope.

The Hammers may not be the toughest opponent if the table was to be believed, but a combination of their quality in attack (at least on paper) and our poor away form could prove a difficult avenue to negotiate.

West Ham v Arsenal; The Raw Data

• Both Arsenal and West Ham come into matchday 22 in patchy form of late. The pair of London dwellers shares the same 2-1-2 record over their last five league fixtures.
• The Hammers are in the bottom half of the table in terms of home performances this season with a 4-2-5 record; their eighteen goals allowed at the London Stadium is the joint-fourth worst in the Premier League.
• Arsenal is just about breaking even away from the Emirates, garnering a 4-3-3 record from their performances, but their +1 goal difference on their travels won’t turn many heads. The defensive numbers don’t impress either, with the twenty-one surrendered being on level-terms with both Southampton and Huddersfield.
• West Ham’s total goal production on the year is one of the best of any non-top six sides. Their twenty-nine goals are bested only by Watford (30), Everton (31), and Bournemouth (31).
• Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s league-leading fourteen goals are just one fewer than the combined goal tally of West Ham’s top two goal scorers; Felipe Anderson (8), and Marko Arnautović (7).

Arsenal’s away goals may make the difference

Neither side can claim a substantial level of superiority in terms of their performances. Arsenal is allowing just as many goals away from home as they are scoring, and the combined average of 4.3 goals/away match points to West Ham having a decent chance of picking up some sort of result. In fact, 90% of our day outs this season have featured 2.5 goals or more, and 70% of them can boast 3.5 or more.

Given the goal-scoring prowess of a handful of Hammers and our struggles at the back all season long, the result is hardly a foregone conclusion.

In comparison to our away results, matches at the London Stadium feature fewer goals across all categories that were mentioned, to the tune of 1.21 fewer goals/match. West Ham has allowed fewer goals at home than we have allowed away from our patch of grass.

This is a fixture that could very well come down to if we are in a goalscoring mood. Our twenty-two goals scored on our travels is level with Liverpool and United. Surprisingly, that lot up the road have the best goal return when in hostile territory.

Arsenal and West Ham share similar fortunes when comparing first-half and second-half data as well. Both sides surrender more first-half goals than they score, though only 25% (4) of the Hammers goal output at home comes in the first-half. The Gunners are far more balanced in this area, registering 41% (9) of their away goals in the first forty-five. Pellegrini’s disproportionate goal return in the second half (12) barely bests the eleven they surrendered. This is where Arsenal have a chance to make the difference. While West Ham allows 61% of their goals during the second act, our 33% trumps them by nearly half.

Aubameyang needs to improve on the road

As arguably the most natural goal scorer in the Premier League, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has made good on the reputation he built leading the line in the Ruhr Valley at the Westfalenstadion. Fourteen goals in twenty-one league appearances this season, with seventeen matches remaining, surely points to the Gabonese front man becoming the first true center forward for Arsenal to crack twenty goals in the league since Robin van Persie banged thirty in 2011/12.

Despite his goal record this season, his recent struggles to find consistent form away from home has been a bit of a bugbear for us.

Auba’s seventh-minute opener in the 1-1 draw at Brighton on boxing day was his only goal in our last four away days. Despite this, his overall goalscoring form of late reminds consistent; he has netted four in our last four matches overall.

Recent data showing that Auba has missed the most “big chances” of any player this season may lead some to call for the former Borussia Dortmund sniper to be a touch more clinical. That is no slight on his season, but even a slight clinical improvement means we would not have a care in the world in the goals department.

Key clashes against Chelsea and City await in two of our next three league bouts. It is imperative that Auba and the rest of the squad build on the Fulham result and gain momentum as we head into another difficult period.