Arsenal vs Sunderland Preview: Premier League Leaders Look to Extend Advantage at the Emirates

Arsenal host Sunderland at the Emirates Stadium in a Premier League fixture with clear implications at the top of the table. Mikel Arteta’s side remain in first place and continue to combine defensive stability with consistent scoring at home.

Sunderland arrive in eighth, disciplined and difficult to break down, but their away record has limited their ability to convert solid performances into results. The reverse fixture earlier in the season ended 2-2, a reminder that control of possession alone does not settle matches against organized opponents.

Head-to-Head History

Recent meetings strongly favor Arsenal.

• Sunderland have won one of their last 28 Premier League matches against Arsenal (D10 L17), that victory coming in November 2009.

• Sunderland have never won a Premier League away match against Arsenal, drawing five and losing 11.

• Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 18 home league games against Sunderland, a run stretching back to 1983.

The draw earlier this season remains the most relevant reference point. Arsenal controlled long stretches but conceded late, showing that matches against disciplined sides can remain alive deep into the second half.

Current Form

Arsenal’s recent trends remain strong:

• Undefeated in their last four away league matches.

• Best defensive record in the Premier League with 17 goals conceded.

• Fourteen wins from fifteen matches in which they scored first.

• A significant share of conceded goals arriving after the 75th minute.

• Strong goal difference and control metrics in second halves.

Sunderland’s form continues to show a sharp home and away contrast:

• Unbeaten in their last 12 home matches.

• Winless in their last seven away league fixtures.

• Only six goals scored in 12 away matches.

• One of the highest shot volumes faced in the league but relatively few goals conceded, supported by strong goalkeeping performances.

Robin Roefs has been central to that defensive resilience, combining a high save volume with one of the league’s better save percentages.

Tactical Preview

Where Arsenal Can Gain Control

Set pieces
Arsenal lead the Premier League in goals scored from corners and remain one of the most reliable sides at converting aerial opportunities. Sunderland concede a high number of shots and corners away from home, increasing the likelihood of sustained pressure from dead-ball situations.

Scoring first and controlling tempo
Arsenal’s record after opening the scoring is among the strongest in the league. Sunderland’s away profile shows difficulty chasing matches, with a low rate of scoring first on the road. An early goal would allow Arsenal to dictate possession and tempo for extended stretches.

Sustained pressure in the final third
Teams that defend deep against Arsenal often force more attempts from distance or wide areas. This pattern produces rebounds, corners, and second phases rather than immediate high-quality chances, but over time it creates cumulative pressure.

Where Sunderland Can Disrupt the Game

Defensive organization under pressure
Despite facing a high volume of shots, Sunderland have kept their goals conceded relatively low. Their defensive block and goalkeeping have allowed them to remain competitive in matches where possession and territory favor the opponent.

Late phases of matches
A significant portion of Arsenal’s conceded goals have come in the final stages. Opponents that remain within one goal retain a realistic chance of changing the result late.

Transition moments
Arsenal’s attacking structure commits fullbacks and midfielders high up the pitch. Quick transitions or set-piece opportunities from turnovers remain Sunderland’s most realistic attacking route.

Key Players

Arsenal

Declan Rice
Rice’s ability to recover possession and maintain midfield control is central to Arsenal’s territorial dominance, particularly against teams that look to counter.

Martin Zubimendi
Zubimendi’s positioning in front of the defense allows Arsenal to sustain pressure while limiting exposure to counterattacks.

Noni Madueke
With Bukayo Saka unlikely to feature, Madueke’s pace and direct play provide width and attacking penetration from the right side.

Gabriel and William Saliba
Central defensive control is critical in matches where the opponent creates few chances but relies on efficiency when opportunities arise.

Sunderland

Robin Roefs
One of the busiest goalkeepers in the league, Roefs has combined high save totals with a strong save percentage, helping Sunderland outperform defensive shot metrics.

Brian Brobbey
Brobbey’s physical presence and finishing ability provide Sunderland’s primary goal threat, especially in transition or set-piece situations.

Habib Diarra and Enzo Le Fée
Ball progression through midfield and the ability to relieve pressure will be essential if Sunderland are to spend meaningful time outside their defensive third.

Injury and Suspension Updates

Arsenal

• Mikel Merino: foot injury, expected to miss several months.

• Bukayo Saka: hip issue, improving but unlikely to feature.

• Martin Odegaard: minor knock, nearing return.

• Max Dowman: ankle injury, still unavailable.

• Jurrien Timber: fit and available.

Sunderland

• Granit Xhaka: ankle injury, unavailable.

• Bertrand Traore: knee injury.

• Jocelin Ta Bi: ankle injury.

Statistical Breakdown

Points and Performance Indicators

• Arsenal home points per game: 2.42

• Sunderland away points per game: 0.83

• Overall points per game: Arsenal 2.21, Sunderland 1.50

Performance metrics show a consistent gap between the sides across the season.

Goals and Defensive Record

Arsenal at home:

• Goals scored per match: 2.33

• Goals conceded per match: 0.67

• Scoring rate: 92%

• Clean sheets: 50%

• Scored first: 83%

Sunderland away:

• Goals scored per match: 0.50

• Goals conceded per match: 1.42

• Scoring rate: 42%

• Failed to score: 58%

The gap in these figures explains the likely pattern of the match: sustained Arsenal pressure and limited Sunderland chances.

Set Pieces and Corners

Arsenal average nearly six corners per home match and concede relatively few, while Sunderland concede more corners than they take on the road. Combined with Arsenal’s strong conversion rate from corners, this remains a significant factor.

Probability Models

Pre-match simulations project Arsenal as clear favorites, reflecting the difference in home and away performance levels.

Prediction and Closing Thoughts

Arsenal enter the match with measurable advantages in home scoring, defensive consistency, and historical performance in this fixture. Sunderland’s defensive discipline and goalkeeping quality mean the contest may remain competitive for long stretches, particularly if Arsenal take time to convert pressure into goals.

If Arsenal take the lead, their season-long pattern suggests a high probability of controlling the game through possession and territory. Sunderland’s most realistic path to points lies in maintaining compact shape, limiting set-piece damage, and capitalizing on a small number of attacking moments.

Prediction: Arsenal 2–0 Sunderland.

The available data points toward sustained territorial control, limited Sunderland chances, and a strong probability of Arsenal maintaining their defensive record at home.