Match Preview: Arsenal v Liverpool, Premier League Match Day 26

In week 2, Arsenal were in the throws of the most horrid start of the their time under Arsene Wenger’s leadership. At that time, Liverpool, in what was largely a lacklustre affair, came the Emirates and off the back of a Aaron Ramsey own goal and late strike by Luis Suarez walked out 2-0 winners. The press proclaimed that Arsenal were in the descendency and Liverpool in their ascendency. In truth, nothing has really worked out well for either club.

As the teams take the pitch this weekend, they are both coming off of eventful matches. Liverpool won their first bit of silverware in a while taking Cardiff City to penalties in the Carling Cup final. Arsenal, after trailing  2-0, staged an amazing comeback and won 5-2 over their North London rivals, Spurs. In both cases each team will be looking to build some momentum and use it to catapault to something more.

But the problem here is that neither club has been the model of consistency. For the home side, in their 12 home matches this season, they have won 4 drawn 8. Their conversion rate is a paltry 8.6% and in the league they have yet to score a goal at home in calendar year 2012.

For Arsenal it is more a case of consistent runs of performances. Since the turn of the calendar the gunners lost 3 drew 1 and won 3. Not the model of consistency. The bright spot is that the draws and wins have been in succession. The boys in red and white have taken 10 of their last 12 available points and moved back into 4th place on goal differential. Today they have a chance to put Liverpool’s top 4 hopes further into the distance.

An Arsenal win would not only put pressure on Liverpool and manager Kenny Dalglish, but it would also heap pressure on Tottenham who play host to Manchester United. But the key here is can the Gunners do it?

We’ve talked repeatedly about ‘opportunity matches.’ Those specific games where the Gunners have a chance to make up ground on their opponents when the opportunity presents itself. For Arsenal, taking advantage of those moments hasn’t been an easy thing. In most opportunity matches this season, the Gunners have failed to do anything substantial and in some cases they’ve hurt their cause more.

When they have made ground up is when there is no pressure to do so. Usually, this has happened when they are the first match of the weekend and aren’t aware of any of the other occurences in the league.

Team news is iffy right now. Both Vermaelen and Van Persie played friendlies this week. For Van Persie, he was withdrawn at the half as had been planned. There was some speculation that he had picked up a slight groin injury in the Spurs game but there doesn’t seem to be any confirmation of that.

The more concerning news is that the Belgian FA, seemingly disregarded Arsenal’s request to rest Thomas Vermaelen. Belgium if you didn’t know are not in Euro 2012. So the friendly they played had less meaning then it usually does. However, even after the primary club, Arsenal, made a request to the Belgian FA, they decided to play Thomas an entire 90 minutes. The club are infuriated and have said they will likely lodge a formal complaint with FIFA/UEFA.  It does look like he will play but he was nursing a slight ankle injury coming out of the Spurs game.

For the home side Liverpool will be without Daniel Agger and Lucas. Agger is now out long-term with a broken rib which means that Carragher will likely fill in the CB role. Steven Gerrard and Glen Johnson both face late fitness tests with hamstring injuries. Gerrard  was taken off 30 minutes into the England friendly against Holland. If Gerrard is out, look for Spearing to fill in. If Johnson is out, Kelly will likely slot into the RB role.

With Lucas out there is a big hole in the central midfield and  Henderson has proven he is not the man to fill that role. Like the match against Spurs, if Arsenal control the midfield they control the game. Harry Redknapp confirmed that he felt they lost the match because Arsenal simply flooded the midfield and in doing so Harry had no answer for the attack. Spurs are a lot more talented in the midfield than this Liverpool team are and if Arsenal are going to get anything from the match, the same sort of pressing and control they displayed against their arch rivals will be needed. Throw in the age of and diminishing form of Carragher to  the middle of the Liverpool defence then the chance for Robin Van Persie to throw his influence around only increases exponentially.

Liverpool will find that the team the face off against on Saturday is a far cry from the team that they beat at the Emirates at the beginning of the season. The squad that took that pitch that day? Szczesny, Vermaelen, Sagna, Jenkinson, Koscielny, Frimpong, Nasri, Ramsey, Van Persie, Walcott, Arshavin.  Jenkinson was new, Frimpong was untested, Nasri was on his way out and Arshavin was starting his slide into oblivion.

The Arsenal squad that will take the pitch this weekend looks decidedly hungrier and more in form. They are desirous of making up for their faults this season and they are led by the best striker in the league – bar none. It won’t be easy. Even with Liverpool struggling at home they haven’t lost there this season. The same exact verve Arsenal hit Spurs with for 2/3 of 90 minutes last week should be enough to dispatch Liverpool. It remains to be seen though if Arsenal can come out and put together two performances like that back to back.

How the Match Should Play Out:
As I said earlier, the midfield will be the key battle here. If Gerrard is out, a midfield trio of Spearing, Henderson and Adam are hardly a threat to control the midfield. With Rosicky, Song and Arteta or even Benayoun slotted in there is more than enough skill to control the game. That would mean a lot of the game being played in the Liverpool end. The key will be if what will Arsenal do with that much possession in the Liverpool end.. They need to make the right passes at the right time. Walcott down the right looks a good bet but at the Emirates Enrique did an admirable job against him. The key for Arsenal will be tightening up the defence. Koscielny and Veramelen are back together again and they will have the duty of keeping Carroll and Suarez quiet. Carroll is a frustrating contrast to his value. The defenders will have to be careful around Suarez who spends more time flopping to the ground looking for a call rather than actually playing a game.  If Sagna can control Downing’s crossing game than the effectiveness of Carroll will be further minimized.

Players to Watch:

Arsenal: Thomas Rosicky. For a few weeks Rosicky had been showing continued improvement as he got more playing time. Last week against Spurs I think he had arguably his best game in a very long while. If little Mozart has another game like that, watch out because it could make Arsenal’s attack more effective.

Liverpool: Luis Suarez. Never has one player been so loved and hated at the same time. He is a skillful player. But his skill is often overshadowed by his on the pitch antics. He is now becoming more known for his repeated attempts to get a call. At the Carling Cup it was a complete disgrace how many times he went to ground and came up asking for a call.

Projected Starting Lineups:

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal:  Ramsey (ankle) Coquelin (hamstring) Mertesacker (ankle) Santos(ankle) Wilshere (ankle)

Liverpool: Lucas (knee) Agger (ribs) Gerrard (doubtful – hamstring) Johnson (doubtful – hamstring)

Leading Scorers:
Arsenal: Robin Van Perise 23

Liverpool: Luis Suarez 10

Last Meeting (EPL):

Arsenal: 0

Liverpool: 2

Goals For:

Arsenal (away): 1.8

Liverpool (home): 1.2

Goals Against:
Arsenal (away): 2.0

Liverpool: (home): 0.7

Last Five (league):
Arsenal: WWWDL

Liverpool: LDWLD

Goal Difference:
Arsenal: 16

Liverpool: 6

Match Official:
Referee: Mark Halsey (Matches 15, R0 Y33).

Broadcast Information:
US: ESPN2/ESPN3 0730 AM EST

UK: Sky Sports 2 1230 GMT

GAMEDAY CHAT: It’s Open!!!!!!

www.youaremyarsenal.com/gamedaychat

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Liverpool: 1

Final Words:

So has Arsene Wenger lost it or what? Maybe? Maybe not. Well, the Premier League doesn’t seem to think so as our manager was given his 12th manager of the month  award. He is now second only behind Fergie’s 26.  He got the award for the club’s performance in February taking 10 points from a possible 12 with a draw and 3 wins. Two of them quite emphatic.

That brings us to the month of March where Arsenal traditionally fail, fall, or whatever else you want to call it. I am going to make this bold prediction, should Arsenal come out of their ties in March – Liverpool (A) Newcastle (H) Everton (A) Aston Villa (H) and QPR (A) – with 11 of the possible 15 available points then the Champion’s league spot and quite possibly 3rd place could be  on more solid footing. But this is March and after all the ides of March don’t do well by us Gooners.

Alright then – enjoy the match and we’ll see you on the flip side. Until then. . . stay goonerish!!

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