Are Arsenal Quietly Building a Contender?

In December of this past year Arsene Wenger was asked if he thought that between now and 2017 (the end of his current contract) he thought Arsenal could lift the title again. He responded with this answer:

“Of course. We have not started very well, but we never had the squad together since the start of the season. It was a post-World Cup start typically.

“I think we have what is requested to do it. We have to fight like mad now to come back as much as possible to show that we can compete in every single game.”

When it was published, there was everything from belief to incredulity from all corners. Arsenal were stuttering through the current season and defensively things looked a shambles.

With January about to close and the capture of Gabriel Armando “Paulista” de Abreu imminent, it raises the question if Wenger was right?

Before we go any further, I do not think Arsenal can compete for the title this season. I believe that the FA Cup is possible and I also believe that Arsenal can close the gap on Chelsea. However, given the fits of the first half of the season, Arsenal are essentially out of contention for the big one this year – that is barring some colossal meltdown from Chelsea (stranger things have happened)

When you look at the actions Wenger has taken in the last few in terms of jettisoning players, retaining players and bringing in quality, Wenger (and Ivan) have slowly built a squad that could be quite competitive.

In the graphic below, we’ve identified players by position that are considered bona-fide first time players. Yes, there are players that are not listed here like, newcomer Bielik, Zelalem, Hayden and of course the oft-injured Diaby. They are not listed because of this writing they are not likely to feature with any frequency for the first XI. I did add Akpom as I think he will start to get a run as a first-team squad player (especially given his contract situation.)

You’ll note below that Sanchez is all alone on the left. The only reason is that Wenger has a tendency to rotate other players on left – like Welbeck, Rosicky, Özil among others. This chart tries to capture their natural positions.

Pay no attention to formation or who’s listed before who. It’s all about the depth, no troubles.

Looking at this chart, once Gabriel is added, there is depth across the board. The real weakness will still be in that DM position. Arteta has been signed to a 1 year extension, more for his leadership than actual playing ability I think at this point. And while Coquelin, has done admirably, bringing in a quality first-teamer that he can rotate with is an essential need that I think will be addressed this summer.

Supporters are by their nature impatient. We expect things sooner rather than they appear. When the likes of Özil was brought in and the FA Cup was won we expected a more upward trajectory. When the Emirates was built, we expected (because we were told it was to be) a more immediate return to the winning ways early on in Wenger’s years.

But as we’ve heard, there has always been a plan. The plan couldn’t really happen until Arsenal were out of the financial woods. The thing is, that once out, most supporters likely felt the turnaround would be instantaneous. However, as you look at the business done over the last two plus seasons, add in the addition of Gabriel you have to wonder if this methodical building is going to result in delivering on Wenger’s belief of a title within the next few years.

The team has patiently brought in the right players. They’ve been busy tying down talent that can serve as the core to this club for many years. Combined with the financial growth and stability, it’s not hard to imagine that Wenger could be right in his prognostication.

Of course, this is all dependent on many things. One, it is dependent on adding that aforementioned DM this summer. It also requires adding additional squad players, namely on the left wing.  It also is dependent on this team addressing the issues and causes of the injuries it has had and doing whatever is possible to minimize the numbers of players out for long periods of time.

You can never predict a broken bone or fracture, but you can minimize the ability of the body to incur soft tissue injuries. If we can minimize that we stand a better chance of making sure we have the best XI available to us throughout a season rather than part of a season.

Again, there are many intangibles that can throw a wrench into this idea but in terms of the squad, its talent levels and overall depth, I think all the movement of late has been the right movement. It hinges on the final piece to the puzzle getting added this summer.

Then, I am optimistic for the immediate future.

Some thoughts on Gabriel Armando “Paulista” de Abreu

The first thing everyone needs a lesson on, is that he should not be called Paulista like it’s his last name. It is not. You can see his name above. Paulista is a name that identifies where he hails from, in this case Sao Paulo.  If you are discussing him, it would be proper to identify him as Gabriel and NOT Paulista.

With that out of the way, let’s discuss what the plans could be for the Brazilian. I don’t suspect he will displace anyone on the depth chart this season. Its more likely that the first half a year will see him get to know the team, his teammates and get introduced to the Premier League over time.

Next season could be the season we see a fundamental change in our defensive lineup. If you haven’t read many of the blogs about Gabriel, he has been called identical in playing style to Laurent Koscielny. Though he might be a little more prone to playing safe.

He is quick and strong, solid positionally, and is two footed (which means he is comfortable playing on either side). What he lacks is crisp solid passing and that may be another reason why he is not quickly introduced to Premier League this season.

As much as I love Per Mertesacker, it’s clear that time is not on his side.  Given the strength and speed we need, you could see a story develop that sees Gabriel come in alongside Koscielny next season with Per and Chambers as rotating options – Per being the old leader from the bench and Chambers being the young protégé learning his craft over time.

In any case, all reports suggest Arsenal are getting a quality defender at a young age. If all of that is true and he can acclimate to this league, he is just another addition to the squad that could see us end the title drought, sooner rather than later.