Arsene Wenger; the Failed Gambler
Throughout a league campaign every manager takes a gamble. Most gambles are calculated and thought out, some pay off, some don’t.
Last year, Jose Mourinho took a massive gamble, going into the campaign with the smallest squad out of the traditional top sides. He gambled players would stay fit and in form, and for the most part, Courtouis, Terry, Ivanovic, Cesc, Costa, Matic & Hazard did. And for the most part, they did. They stayed fit, and they stayed in form.
This year he attempted to repeat the trick. And it failed, with key players losing form, fitness or just getting old.
This year, Wenger gambled. He so often does. And none of his gambles paid off, which is why we find ourselves in the predicament we are, and it is him who is to blame, and must take the full for it.
So what gambles did he take?
The majority happened in the summer, when we failed to buy a single players. He gambled on the form, fitness and progression of players currently in the Arsenal squad:
Gabriel – Arsenal needed a commanding centre back. They have done for near on a decade. Last January we bought Gabriel. He has all the physical attributes to be a top player. Arsene Wenger gambled that Gabriel would learn English to continue his development. He has struggled, and that struggle translated onto the pitch within the team.
Jack Wilshere – The talent of Jack Wilshere has never been in doubt. His fitness has been. At the back end of 2014/15 he produced some excellent performances for England, winning 6 out of 7 man of the match awards and scoring 2 spectacular goals in the UEFA Euro 2016 qualifying match away to Slovenia. All whilst playing as a deep lying midfielder. Wenger gambled that he would remain fit, and therefore we did not need a new defensive midfielder to compliment/compete with Francis Coquelin. The only gamble which failed more spectacularly this season is the punter who stuck £80,000 on Vautour to win £20,000 at Aintree, only for the horse to fall (cheers Ruby!).
Theo Walcott – Form and fitness. The later that after two years out injured, he would remain fully fit. The former that he would regain the form that saw him score 21 goals in 43 games a few seasons back. He neither got fit for any length of time, or got into any sort of form of note. And the gamble to continually bring him on over Joel Campbell failed every time.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain – Tipped that it would be his year, Arsene Wenger gambled on his development. After the performance and goal against Chelsea in the Champions League, it seemed like he had arrived. We had to wait until February 7th for his first (and only) goal of the season. Not only did he fail to progress, he went backwards.
Danny Welbeck / Olivier Giroud – Rather than buy a great striker, Wenger gambled on two average ones he hoped would compliment each other. When playing against slow, lumber some centre backs (Stoke), Welbeck would start. Against side who played with quicker, weaker defenders, Giroud could start and bully them. Welbeck started off injured and suffered set back after set back, Giroud lost form completely.
The gambling on players within the squad meant that we failed to buy a single out field player. Every gamble failed.
We then move on to January. Arsenal started the year top of the league. This despite having Wilshere, Coquelin and Cazorla out injured. Two set to be out for an extended period.
Wenger once more gambled in the transfer market, bringing in just Mohamed Elneny.
He would have looked at us in January, top of the league, with players out and thought “Do not rock the boat, we are top with what we have, carry this on, and key players return for the run in”.
It would be March until Elneny would start a game, as Arsenal slipped to 3rd having lost the previous two games. Key to both defeats was a cap in the middle of the park and lack of creation from deep. Whilst Elneny has provided both of these, the gamble to not start him until 7 weeks after he joined failed.
You also have to question the gamble of only signing Elneny. With so many out injured at the turn of the year. The struggles already showing at the back (the 4-0 defeat away to Southampton).
Take out the Liverpool game, we only scored 1 goal in the 3 other Premier League games in January. The strikers were looking goal shy.
Every decision to back a player, every gamble in the transfer market, every team selection decision back fired badly.
And then we come to substitutes.
It seems no mater what gamble Wenger would take on the 70th minute with substitutes, it would not work.
Going defensive and bringing on Kieran Gibbs on paper should work, but it did not. Neither did bringing on Flamini to shore up the middle of the park.
And attacking, when chasing the game, it seemed every decision was the wrong one. Whether it was leaving Ozil on, or like against Sunderland, taking him off.
Bringing on Walcott over Campbell, another sub that never really worked. But then when Campbell came on, he did not exactly set the world alight.
Even in recent weeks, the gambling has not worked. Alex Iwobi has been a breath of fresh air. But Wenger gambled he would keep up his early promise, playing him ahead of more senior players. Even that gamble did not pay off.
Even the players he has sent out on loan, have not been a success. Carl Jenkinson lost form and then fitness at West Ham. Serge Gnabry has wasted a year of his career at WBA. Dan Crowley was returned by Barnsley. Yaya Sanogo at Ajax was another failure.
2015/16 has been a disappointment. Every gamble taken by Arsene Wenger this year has failed.
@KeenosAFC
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Sadly Hayden and Apkom have been total flops at Hull
Neither the answer sadly
Wenger stated at the outset of the season that both Giroud and Walcott were world class, he even said that he was unable to find better anywhere. We all knew that both would fail to cut it, why didn’t Wenger?
@Richard1977 – to your points regarding blaming the players. To some extent i agree, I’m baffled as to how ineffective Sanchez, Walcott and Giroud have been in recent months. BUT there is a consistent theme here – Wenger. He has not been able to push the players over the line in the most important games. This weak mentality has been a big theme in the last few years. You look at Ranieri – it is obvious he has carried Leicester through the most important games. The Leicester players have executed him vision / plan to perfection. The manager has to take the blame eventually.
Biggest gambles to me are: 1) Assuming Coquelin would stay fit for the whole season 2) Assuming Giroud/Welbeck/Walcott/Sanchez will score enough goals to compensate for the lack of a WC striker. He was forced to react to 1) by buying Elneny when it was almost too late. To some extent I can understand 2) because no one could have guessed Sanchez would lose form a drastically as he did. BUT i will not forgive him for it because a serious club will not take such a gamble.
Your article whilst interesting and you use players to make your point. No mention of zelalem or how akpom or Hayden have done. Or how keeping faith in bellerin has worked. Yes every manager gambles and not all pay off some haven’t some have for Wenger. Yes the buck stops at him and that’s how he likes it he protects his players and that’s maybe a downfall. Your point in the summer is valid but the January window is a small opportunity not many clubs or players want to move mid season. However, to blame lack of players in on our current predicament is an easy way out. Those players we have should have been good enough yet too many games and I’ll take Utd at home 3-0 up in first twenty odd minutes then we coast rest of game the invincible and the teams before them would have put their foot on united s throat and ripped them apart but this team is content to try and win by 2 or three they don’t get or understand the mentality to humiliate your opponent when they are down.