Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur; Premier League Match Preview

This is the North London Derby. Forget about the El Classico. Forget about Manchester United versus Liverpool. Forget about El Cashico (Chelsea v Manchester City.) They all pale in comparison to the sheer intensity of Arsenal v Tottenham.

It’s a tie that has longevity and enough bitterness entrenched in it that even today, when foreign players make up a majority of the teams, still bristles with venom. For me when the fixtures list come out, it is always the first dates I am looking for, when do we play Tottenham.

That’s a pretty intense statement coming from someone who doesn’t live in North London. It is after all a geographical “hate” for each other that stems from Arsenal’s move to North London in 1913 ( a move made for business reasons – North London was the more profitable area of the city.) And admittedly, as someone who had to fly in to catch matches the intensity of the hatred for each side was sort of lost on me.

I hated Spurs originally, because as a young Arsenal fan, part of my education from ex-pats here in the US, that is what we do. As a sports fan I got it to an extent. But you have to admit there is something missing. However, that all changed with the advent of social media and erasing of geographical borders. We now live in an age where anyone can reach out to anyone regardless of where you live. And as an Arsenal supporter who runs a slightly successful blog and chats a lot on twitter, the intensity of my dislike for Tottenham has grown exponentially. When, you get abuse simply because of who you support it helps. Also, the fact that year in and year out, Arsenal supporters are told ad infinitum that Spurs will finally overtake them, it gets on your nerves – a lot. So I can only say that while I don’t live in North London, my hatred and dislike of Spurs grows more intense with each passing year.

But what about this match? Frankly, if it weren’t the North London Derby it might be a match that some would look out and just go – meh! Frankly neither team has covered themselves in glory of late. Spurs looked to be in a good way 5 weeks ago after dispatching Manchester United but in their last 4 matches they’ve lost three and pretty much thrown them away.

Sound familiar? Arsenal haven’t exactly been the dashing, attack driven beauties they’ve been identified with either. Arsenal have struggled. They looked to be setting things aright against Schalke by going up 2-0, only to see “ze Germans” claw back for a 2-2 Champion’s League draw. Then last week after going up 2-0 versus Fulham – at HOME – they closed up like a clam and had to settle for a 3-3 draw. Quite simply, since their tidy draw at the Etihad, Arsenal have been found lacking on all fronts.

But that can all change (for either team.) A win by Arsenal puts them over Tottenham by two points. And like no other match can, a win in the North London Derby can lift everyone’s spirits. You will remember it was February last season, Arsenal were on a woeful run beginning from January 1. They were 10 points behind our rivals and went down immediately 2-0. It was not the start that anyone would’ve wanted for a team that needed a spark.

And they got one. And what I like to call the “header that saved a season” sparked a spanking of the rivals that started a climb back into respectability. So it can happen.

A win by either team will likely have that spark.

Both teams however, come into the match with a litany of questions, about player health and fitness as well as defensive frailties. For Arsenal, as good as the defense has reportedly been, they’ve made far too many individual errors for them to inspire any sense of confidence.  As for Spurs only Jan Vertonghen could be said to be having a good season.

The defense is likely to be where this game is won. Both teams can score. That much is a given. But it will be the team that cuts down on the mistakes at the back will win it. How that plays out is anyone’s guess.

You have to wonder, if Villa-Boas will stay with such a high line against Arsenal like he did when he managed Chelsea. His high line had problems with speed and none of Spurs defenders are blessed with it. Jan Vertonghen as good as he has been, as been found out when it comes to playing pacy wingers 1 v 1. If Walcott plays (and he should) he can’t commit or it could be problematic.

For Arsenal, again it comes down to bone-headed errors. Like the absolute disgraceful clearance of the ball by Thomas Vermaelen onto the feet of Robin Van Persie at Old Trafford two weeks ago. Pitiful mistakes like that and Spurs have the attackers to make Arsenal pay for them. And if they make Arsenal pay the din within the Emirates could be rather emphatic.

As we also mentioned both sides look to be sweating it out on fitness. Arsenal have late fitness tests for Giroud, Walcott, Artetta, Sagna, Szczesny, and Oxlade-Chamberlain,  Santi Cazorla only got back from Panama on Friday. If you weren’t aware he was called up by Spain for a friendly that took place in Panama. And all he did . . . was sit on the bench.

Spurs are no less dependent on the ambulance Squad. They will be without Benoit-Assou Ekoto, Dembele, Parker and Kaboul. Additionally, Walker and Defoe face late fitness tests for AVB. At this rate both sides would be better off playing their NextGen Series squads.

Based on the possible absences, the poor form and the expectations of both sides of North London, it really is setting up to at least be an interesting match. And, after all it is the North London Derby and no matter how bad our team is doing, if you can’t get up for this one, you should get your head checked.

“This is the game of our season because it’s a derby,” Sagna told Arsenal Player. “I think we’re going to have a big atmosphere so everybody is looking forward to it.

“It’s just massive. You can feel the pressure around the stadium. You can feel the pressure on the pitch. We can’t lose that game.”  – Bacary Sagna

How the match should play out:

Wow. It really is hard to say. It depends on whether AVB has learned any lessons playing against speedy teams and if Arsenal actually decide to show up and focus for a full 90 minutes. It does have a draw written all over it and that may be good if you’re a Spurs supporter but it won’t do if you are an Arsenal supporter. With each team sporting back 4s that are showing signs of inconsistency and wobbly behavior, look for each team to see how much they can apply pressure and get the ball into the opponents end quickly. With Dembele out either Huddleston or Sigurdsson will feature to pull the strings for Spurs. This is an advantage for Arsenal. Spurs dip in form can be traced to the Belgian’s absence. Their attack becomes more flat with either of these guys in the side.

For Arsenal, the midfield will hold the key to their advantage. If Spurs put a man on Arteta and pressure him off the ball Wilshere and Cazorla are going to need to cover for him and get the ball into the feet of Giroud  or Walcott both of which have been coming into good form as of late.

As we said earlier, the end result rests on which defense makes the least mistakes. That’s why I can’t see beyond a draw – and that pains me.

Projected Starting XI

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal:   Gervinho (ankle), Diaby (thigh), Rosicky (hamstring), Gibbs (thigh)

Spurs: Dembele (hip), Parker (Achilles), Assou-Ekotto (knee), Kaboul (knee).

Leading Scorers:
Arsenal: Gervinho, Podolski, Cazorla, Giroud all at 3

Spurs: Defoe 5

Assists Leaders:
Arsenal: Walcott 3

Spurs: Dembele, Lennon, Huddlestone, Defoe all at 2

Last Meeting (EPL):
Arsenal: 5

Spurs: 2

Goals For:
Arsenal (home): 2.2

Spurs (away): 2

Goals Against:
Arsenal (home): 1.2

Spurs: (away): 1.6

Last Five:
Arsenal: DLWLW

Spurs: LLWLW

Goal Difference:
Arsenal: 7

Spurs: 2

Match Official:
Referee: Howard Webb. Matches 7, R1 Y30.

Broadcast Information:
US: ESPN2/ESPN3 7:45 AM EST

UK: Sky Sports 2 12.45  GMT

YAMA Prediction:
Arsenal: 2

Spurs: 2