Arsenal return to the Emirates at the top of the Premier League. Six wins in a row across all competitions have steadied the course and lifted belief. A 1-0 win at Fulham then a 4-0 statement against Atletico Madrid set the tone. The task now is simple. Keep control of first place and bank points before the winter squeeze.

Crystal Palace arrive with an edge. One defeat in eight league games shows resilience. A 3-3 draw with Bournemouth exposed flaws at the back and in finishing. A midweek loss to AEK Larnaca raised fresh questions about fatigue and depth. Palace still carry threat. They create a high volume of chances and can punch in transition. This is a London derby with real tactical bite.

Head-to-head snapshot

• Arsenal have won five of the last six league meetings.

• The exception was a 2-2 draw at the Emirates last season.

• Palace have one win in their last 14 league visits to Arsenal. That win came in April 2019.

• When Arsenal start a home match day top of the table, they rarely lose. Two defeats in 70 such games. Seven wins and one draw in the eight most recent cases, with 28 goals scored.

Recent goals tell the story. Arsenal’s attack has become efficient from restarts and ruthless late in games. Palace’s record at the Emirates is lean, yet they often make it uncomfortable with direct play and second balls. Expect long spells of Arsenal control mixed with bursts of Palace pressure.

Current form and momentum

Arsenal

• Six straight wins in all competitions.

• Best defence in the league through eight games. Three goals conceded.

• No shot on target faced in each of the last two league matches.

• Set pieces continue to deliver. Ten league goals from restarts, seven from corners.

• At the Emirates, one goal conceded in four league matches.

• Strong finishers. Five league goals after the 75th minute and only one conceded in that stretch.

The platform is clear. Mikel Arteta has built a side that controls territory, strangles shot volume, and punishes dead balls. The clean sheet run is not an accident. Press timing, box protection, and first-contact wins on crosses are consistent.

Crystal Palace

• One defeat in eight league games, yet no win in the last two.

• 2-1 loss at Everton and a 3-3 draw with Bournemouth.

• One clean sheet in the last seven across all competitions.

• Europe brought a setback in midweek with a 0-1 home defeat to AEK Larnaca.

• Attacking numbers are high. League leaders for shots on target, xG and big chances created.

• Finishing is the issue. Underperforming xG by 5+ goals and most big chances missed.

Palace are lively through the lines and from wide areas. Fitness and mental sharpness will be tested after Thursday night. Arsenal have had two extra days to recover and prepare.

Tactical preview

Arsenal will likely set up in a 4-3-3 that becomes a 2-3-5 in settled possession. Saliba and Gabriel should run the first phase with calm distribution while Raya offers the spare angle for switches. Rice anchors the middle to break pressure and hoover up second balls, with Zubimendi close by to receive on the half turn and feed the right side. Territory comes from fullback positioning and wide rotations. Timber is expected to lock the right touchline, while Calafiori advances only when the rest defense is stable. Chance creation leans on two lanes. The first is the Saka channel on the right with quick combinations and overlaps. The second is the left half-space where Eze finds pockets and Martinelli attacks the far post. Arsenal’s set plays remain a major weapon, with near-post runs and back-post screens a repeated theme. Out of possession the shape compresses into a back five against counters. Rice tracks the first pass out, Zubimendi balances behind the ball, and the centre-backs defend the area with aggression. The key levers for Arteta are simple. Keep the tempo on Arsenal’s terms through precise restarts. Deny Munoz time to deliver from the right. Pin the Palace wingbacks low so Mateta becomes isolated. Maintain clean exits through Rice and Zubimendi to reduce broken-field exchanges.

Crystal Palace should mirror their recent 3-4-2-1. Guehi will anchor the back three, with Lacroix’s range and Richards’ front-foot work either side. Wharton brings press resistance and early switches in midfield where Kamada or Hughes can share circulation. Width comes from Munoz and Mitchell, with the former a high-volume crossing outlet and the latter a steadier balance of outlet and recovery. In the final third Pino and Sarr work inside channels for cutbacks while Mateta drives the near post and attacks in the air. Palace’s first press can bite after goal kicks, but space opens behind the wingbacks if they lose a duel. Glasner’s plan points to quick restarts, early diagonals, and back-post overloads. The payoff is flurries of shots. The risk is fatigue that stretches lines late.

Match-ups that shape the game

• Saliba and Gabriel vs Mateta. Palace’s route to goal often ends with a cross to the French striker. The Arsenal pair must win the first contact and the second ball. Avoid cheap fouls around the D.

• Saka vs Mitchell. Saka’s timing against the low block matters. Receive early, drive inside, draw fouls, or slide the overlap for Timber. Mitchell’s 1v1 defending is strong, yet he can be dragged deep by quick wall passes.

• Calafiori vs Munoz. The right wingback is Palace’s high-volume crosser. Calafiori needs help from Martinelli to block delivery and stop the early ball. Pick your moments to step high.

• Set pieces both ways. Arsenal lead the league for set-piece goals. Palace defend the first phase well yet struggle on second actions. Protect the edge of the box, because Rice and Eze can shoot through traffic.

Key players to watch

Arsenal

• Declan Rice. Controls the middle third and cleans up counters. His long-range threat keeps keepers honest on corners worked short.

• Martin Zubimendi. Offers tempo and protection in tight lanes. Lines up through-balls when the back line steps out.

• Bukayo Saka. Most dangerous player in isolation. Can force bookings, create set pieces, and bend the far-post finish.

• Viktor Gyokeres. Scored a brace in midweek. Runs channels, presses hard, and attacks the six-yard box on cutbacks.

• Leandro Trossard. Two straight starts vs Palace with goals in each. Finds space between defenders and finishes cleanly.

• Eberechi Eze. Now in red and white. Finds half-spaces, carries pressure, and offers the disguised pass for Martinelli.

Crystal Palace

• Jean-Philippe Mateta. Five league goals. Eight of his last nine in London. Strong in the air and quick to finish knockdowns.

• Daniel Muñoz. Drives the right flank. Early crosses are a constant theme.

• Adam Wharton. Calm under pressure. Breaks the first line and releases wingbacks at speed.

• Marc Guehi and Chris Richards. Read the penalty area well and attack aerial balls. The pair will be busy on corners and wide free kicks.

• Yeremy Pino. Cuts inside to shoot or slip Mateta in. Threatens the back post if Arsenal overplay the ball side.

Injury and squad news

Arsenal

• Out: Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Jesus.

• Doubt: Gabriel Magalhaes felt an issue vs Atletico and missed training soon after. Late check expected.

• Return: Piero Hincapie is back in the squad and building minutes.

• Manager view: Arteta praised the defensive record and set-piece work. He pushed for more urgency and consistency. He highlighted the need to stop “the source” to limit Mateta.

Projected XI: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel*, Calafiori; Rice, Zubimendi, Eze; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli.
*If Gabriel does not pass fit, Hincapie can start and Calafiori can move inside.

Crystal Palace

• Out: Cheick Doucouré, Chadi Riad, Caleb Kporha.

• Fitness watch: Rotation likely after Thursday night. Richards expected to return to the XI.

• Projected XI: Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Guehi; Munoz, Wharton, Kamada or Hughes, Mitchell; Pino, Sarr; Mateta.

Statistical insights

Arsenal

• 2.38 points per game.

• 1.88 goals scored per game.

• 0.38 goals conceded per game.

• Fewest shots faced in the league. Fewest shots on target conceded. Lowest xG against.

• Ten set-piece goals and seven from corners. Scored from a restart in six of eight league games.

• Five goals after the 75th minute. One conceded in that window.

Crystal Palace

• 1.63 points per game.

• 1.50 goals scored per game.

• 1.00 goal conceded per game.

• League-leading volume for shots on target, xG and big chances.

• Finishing deficit of roughly five goals vs xG. Most big chances missed in the division.

• Half of the goals allowed have arrived after the 75th minute.

What the trends suggest

• Arsenal limit attempts and punish set plays.

• Palace generate shots in bunches yet leave goals behind.

• The late-game split is stark. Arsenal surge. Palace fade. In a tight match, that swing matters.

How the game could play out

First 30 minutes

Arsenal want field tilt. Expect squeezing pressure on Wharton and early switches to Saka. Corners will arrive if Palace block crosses. If Arsenal score first, control grows, and the game tilts toward a patient second. If Palace land the first punch, it likely comes from a quick wide break or a second-phase cross toward Mateta.

Middle phase

Palace can create a run of corners and throw-ins down the right when Munoz gets free. Arsenal must guard the near-post flick and the cutback to the penalty spot. On the ball, Arsenal will look for Eze between lines with Rice and Zubimendi securing rest defense. Gyokeres’ near-post runs can open space for Martinelli on the far stick.

Closing stretch

Fitness and depth favor Arsenal. Arteta can call on Trossard or a fresh wide runner to test tired legs. Palace often concede late. If the score is level after 70, the numbers point to Arsenal closing strong through set plays and quick counters against stretched lines.

Practical keys for each side

For Arsenal, control the obvious pressure points. Winning the first contact on wide crosses aimed at Mateta will define defensive stability. Keeping Munoz out of early crossing zones matters as much as managing Palace’s zonal gaps at corners. Rice’s positioning in central areas must stay disciplined to sweep up second balls and stop counters before they build. Arsenal should also lean on quick restarts to pin Palace back and force them to defend deeper, where their compact shape becomes less effective.

For Crystal Palace, early ambition is critical. They can test Arsenal by targeting Calafiori’s channel and forcing the back line to turn. Fast diagonals behind the fullbacks can unsettle Arsenal’s rest defense, especially when Munoz joins the play. On dead balls, they must crowd Raya to disrupt rhythm and look for second phases to exploit. Tracking late runners and managing energy through smart substitutions will decide whether they can resist Arsenal’s late push.

Prediction

Arsenal enter with rest, form, and the best defensive record in the league. Palace create plenty yet leave goals unscored and tend to fade late. The set-piece gap is decisive. Mateta can trouble any back line, yet Saliba and Gabriel have managed this duel before. Expect periods of Palace momentum. Expect Arsenal to control the shot quality and the tempo.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Crystal Palace.

A clean sheet is within reach if the box defending remains tidy and Munoz’s supply is limited. One goal from a set piece and one from a transition or a far-post finish feels likely.

Quick facts

• Arsenal sit first with the league’s stingiest defence and the most set-piece goals.

• Palace lead the league for chance volume yet lag in finishing.

• Key duel: Saka vs Mitchell on Arsenal’s right.

• Late-game trend favors Arsenal.

Closing view

No drama needed. Arsenal have built a repeatable plan. Protect the box, win the restarts, and manage the clock. Palace will test the wings and fire crosses early. Control those lanes and the points stay in north London.