Champions League Match Preview: Dinamo Zagreb v Arsenal; Start Smart

Arsenal’s trip to Croatia to open the Champions League campaign will test the side’s intelligence.

Although Dinamo Zagreb’s talent shouldn’t be underestimated, Arsenal’s skill, speed, strength, and stamina have to be superior on paper. It’s the mental qualities, though, that so often determine success in European play. And the Gunners still have something to prove in that respect.

There were the two disastrous home performances against Anderlecht and Monaco in last year’s competition, when the necessary focus and savvy escaped Arsenal and expected victories didn’t materialize. This season’s home Premier League opener against West Ham turned on two mental errors; that was proof that Arsenal’s superior physical talents can still fail to carry the day.

Manager Arsène Wenger and his players have recognized the mental requirements, particularly in a six-game, round-robin tournament. Wenger said this week:

It is important we go to Zagreb highly focused and conscious of what is at stake there. You can be quickly out of the Champions League, and we want to start well….

Left back Nacho Monreal made similar points in his pre-match comments, saying

You don’t play too many games, so if you make a mistake, you pay for it. You have to be really focused in each game, and the level is higher. The difference is small, but you have to be really focused.

Arsenal’s quest to reach and maintain that mental level will be important and interesting in several respects. First, this match is the first in a challenging run of four matches away from home and could influence the team’s performances against Chelsea on Saturday, against Tottenham next week in the Capital One Cup, and against Leceister on September 26.

It’s also happening four days after the team’s best outing of the season so far, the 2-0 win over Stoke City. How do the manager and the team capitalize on that performance using an adjusted lineup? We know that Saturday’s starters Hector Bellerin and Aaron Ramsey haven’t made the trip to Zagreb, so Mathieu Debuchy and, presumably, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will have to blend their contributions into the team’s style and efforts.

Unlike some of their predecessors on the substitutes’ bench, Debuchy and Oxlade-Chamberlain are well positioned to profit from the opportunity. Both are full internationals with substantial experience and talents suited to European competition. Debuchy’s toughness, aerial ability, and reading of the game and Oxlade-Chamberlain’s strength and speed are distinctive advantages against wily European opponents.

Wenger noted the improved quality of his options in his pre-match press conference, observing: “It is quite easy to change two or three players, [more] than it was in years before because they are all at a very good level.”

They’ll need to play and think at that elite level because Dinamo Zagreb are no pushovers. The Croatian champions are on a 41-game unbeaten run in all competitions and have outscored their three most recent home opponents 13-1. That record underlines the attacking threat of Angelo Henriquez, Armin Hodzic, and Soudani. The trio has combined for 18 goals already in domestic and European competitions. (Stats from Opta via whoscored.com.)

The problem for Dinamo is that they haven’t yet faced a team that required them to sit deep and defend. And, even when circumstances have dictated a defensive approach, they haven’t been able to execute one. The striking example: After scoring three early goals in a Champions League qualifier at Molde, Dinamo conceded three goals and advanced only by virtue of away goals.

Arsenal showed against Stoke City what it can do to teams whose defenses are not finely calibrated and executed. With a physical effort on that level, combined with the proper focus and intelligence, the Gunners should generate a promising launch to their Champions League campaign and upcoming domestic schedule.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. The decision to rest Aaron Ramsey makes Oxlade-Chamberlain a likely starter. His strength and speed will trouble the Dinamo defense, whose wide players often prioritize attacking over defending.

Dinamo Zagreb. Angelo Henriquez. Alexis Sanchez’s compatriot is Dinamo’s poacher, a role he’s performed successfully so far in all competitions this season with six goals in 10 matches.

Probable Lineups:

Arsenal: Cech – Debuchy Gabriel Koscielny Monreal – Coquelin Cazorla – Oxlade-Chamberlain Özil Sanchez – Giroud

Dinamo: Eduardo – Pinto Sigali Taravel Matel – Soudani Rog Machado Ademi Pjaca – Henriquez

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Wilshere (leg), Welbeck (knee), Rosicky (knee)
Dinamo: Schildenfeld (ankle), Pavicic (foot), Gonçalo (suspended)

Match Officials:
Referee: Ovidiu Hategan (Romania)
Assistants: O Sovre, S Gheorghe
Additional assistants: A Tudor, S Coltescu
Fourth Official: R Ghinguleac

Broadcast Info:
UK: BT Sport Europe, 19:45 GMT
US: Fox Sports 2, Fox Soccer 2 Go, ESPN3 (Spanish), 2:45 PM EDT

YAMA Predicts:
Dinamo 0 – 2 Arsenal. Arsenal will find this a challenge but ultimately will have too much speed and quality in attack for Dinamo’s defense.

MANAGER’s QUOTES:

Arsène Wenger

Dinamo Zagreb are strong team, they have real technical quality and very gifted young players. In our last meeting in 2006 it was a very tight game. We won but we needed patience. They had Luka Modrić, Eduardo – it was a very strong team.

In the Champions League you quickly find out if you are not on the top level from the beginning, so we need to focus on what is a vital game. Of course we want to win this competition but we have to be realistic. It’s OK to have ambitions, but we can’t be dreamers.

Zoran Mamić, Dinamo coach

Arsenal are a top-quality team – better than us – but our aim is not to sit back and defend. We will try to pose them problems. I met Arsène Wenger when we were selling Eduardo to Arsenal; he is one of the best coaches in the world and is doing a fantastic job at Arsenal. It’s a privilege to have him here. I expect a full stadium and a great atmosphere.

In the run-up to the match I told the players we would have two video analysis sessions: one on Arsenal’s strengths, which would be an hour long, and one on their weaknesses. I told them we probably wouldn’t have anything to show in the second meeting.

MATCH FACTS (Courtesy OPTA via FOURFOURTwo. Com)

• Arsenal are playing in the Champions League for the 18th consecutive season, only Real Madrid (19) can boast a longer current streak.
• Arsenal have made it past the group stages in the last 12 seasons but have been knocked out at the last- 16 stage in the last five campaigns. Their solitary Champions League final ended in defeat against Barcelona in 2006.
• Arsène Wenger has taken charge of 168 games in the Champions League, more than any other current manager. Only Alex Ferguson boasts more games (190).
• These sides have met before in the Champions League Qualifying Round in 2006/07 – Arsenal won 5-1 on aggregate including a 2-1 win at home; their first ever win at the Emirates Stadium.
• Dinamo Zagreb have lost their last six meetings with English opposition, conceding 16 goals in the process.
• This is the Croatian side’s first appearance in the Champions League since 2012/13. They’ve never made it past the Group Stage in four previous attempts.
• The Gunners have won their last three Champions League away games. They’ve not won four in a row on the road since February 2006.
• Dinamo Zagreb are winless in 15 Champions League games (D2 L13), last winning against Sturm Graz in September 1999 (3-0).
• Arsenal have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 away Group Stage games.
• Dinamo have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight home games in European competition (all qualifiers).
• Arsenal have won 76 games in the Champions League – the most of any team not to win the competition.
• Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey has scored three goals in his last two Champions League appearances.