Match Preview: Arsenal v Liverpool; Which defense will hold it’s nerve?

It was the scene of one of the worst performances of recent memory. Within 20 minutes the Arsenal were down by 4 and reeling like a punch drunk boxer. The first goal, a header by Skrtel, within the opening few minutes put the Gunners back on the ropes and they’d never make it off.

While it was a drubbing of epic proportions, Arsenal still managed to get the better of Liverpool last season winning, 2 of 3, with the 2-1 win at the Emirates advancing the Gunners on their way to their FA Cup title.

It’s all level set again and both clubs are still trying to find an identity. Liverpool, after selling Luiz Suarez are finding that spending large amounts of money are not a recipe for instant success. In fact, they are finding it to be down-right problematic. An abundance of players have come in and rather than bolstering their efforts from last season, they seem to have hindered the Merseyside club.

Arsenal also spent money in the summer and while we did not bring in as many players and we have not lost as many, our season has been just as fitful as Liverpool’s. We’ve seen draws develop from what should’ve been wins and we’ve been absolutely shell-shocked on our annual trip to Orc-country.

It goes without saying that the winner of tomorrow will be the team that actually can pull its act together. Arsenal have put together two impressive wins in both the Champion’s League and against Newcastle last weekend. Against Newcastle, the impetus was there, the constant movement of the ball created chances galore and this time they went in. The three-headed attack of Giroud, Sanchez and Welbeck caused Newcastle’s usual stalwart defense problems all day long. With Santi pulling the strings in the middle Arsenal looked a constant threat. Both the Galatasaray match (filled with subs) and the Newcastle matches showed that when it works, it can really work.

Liverpool started the week losing 3-0 to Manchester United. The match itself wasn’t filled with the brim and vigor of that tie from before and it was in fairness a dull affair where only Liverpool’s defense outdid everyone for in terms of ineptitude. While Mata was clearly offside for the goal, no one defensively even saw that he was there. In fact, I am not sure the Liverpool defense had a track on any of the United attackers.  Still, the team were able to turn it around and crushed Bournemouth in the Capital One Cup to earn a date in the semi-final with Chelsea.

Last season at Anfield, Brendan Rodgers had his team pressure Arsenal furiously. The strategy worked to deadly effect. We could get nothing going all day and with the talent they had on display that day, it hurt. It was a total team effort from the home side that did us in. The problem for Liverpool is that while the Bournemouth win should give them a lift, they aren’t displaying the level of togetherness that carried them on their improbable run to second place.

They may certainly come with a similar level of pressure again. Given the must-win nature of the match for them, you can absolutely expect it. The issue for them is two-fold, given their mid-week match can they keep it sustained. Last season, Liverpool were devoid of injuries and extra competition distractions.  They cannot lean on that this time. Will they be fresh enough to sustain pressure for a full 90 minutes. Especially against an Arsenal side that have now had 8 days in between their last match and this one.

For us the question is simple – which Arsenal squad is going to show up. Is it the one that has shown what it is capable of or is the one who let Stoke do the business on them. As we’ve mentioned the season has been one of fits and inconsistency. One week looking capable of beating anyone and the next looking like a Sunday league squad could have a go at them.

The question for Wenger is, does he keep the back four from last weekend – Bellerin, Debuchy, Mertesacker and Gibbs or does he put Debuchy back in at RB and bring in either the returning Monreal or Chambers in at CB alongside Mertesacker. My preference would be for Debuchy to stay at CB with Bellerin at RB. Debuchy while unnatural at CB has the ability and pace to track Sterling’s runs. The combo of Chambers and Mertesacker (the most likely pairing) presents speed issues.

The other issue is whether or not Alex-Oxlade Chamberlain passes a late fitness test on Saturday. If he does then he’ll slot right in. If not, could Wenger be brave enough to move to either a 4-4-2 with Poldi and Sanchez on the wings with Welbeck and Giroud up top and Santi alongside Flamini. It’s unlikely and I still think Ox passes fit so it’s a moot point (fingers crossed.)

Arsenal fans will buoyed by the possible return of Theo Walcott. Walcott has featured in a few sub opportunities since his 9 month layoff but after returning to England’s National Team injured his groin. Indication is that he is fit again and could feature as a sub today.

One of the biggest differences going into this tie versus the last tie at Anfield is that this time we have speed options available to us that we didn’t last time. Oxlade-Chamberlain was still trying to find his feet and Ramsey who had been so prolific was out. More importantly with Walcott out, Liverpool could play a high line and negate Olivier Giroud. With Sanchez and Welbeck likely to feature in attack, Liverpool would be foolish to play a high line.

In the last two matches, against United and Bournemouth, Brendan Rodgers has rolled out a 3-4-3 formation. It has created a little more for Liverpool in terms of opportunities. However, it is also something Arsenal can take advantage of. Dejan Lovren will face a fitness test to see if he can make the match. If he is out and Rodgers goes with 3 at the back that is a back three of Toure, Skrtel and Sakho. Not exactly the speediest of defenses and something that you’d like Arsenal’s chances should they find themselves with space behind the midfield 4.

This is an important match for both squads. Arsenal need it to keep pace with the top of the table heading into the Christmas fixtures when the table will start to separate contenders from pretenders. Liverpool need it to get back within a sniff of the top half of the table. The hope is that it makes it a mixture for a rather electric affair.

Players to Watch:
Arsenal: Alexis Sanchez. Rodgers remarked he would’ve been the perfect replacement for the departing Suarez. For Arsenal who missed out on Suarez a year earlier, he is.

Liverpool: Raheem Sterling. The youngman has to bare the mantle of Liverpool’s hope. But his season has been up and down. Against United, couldn’t bury his clear cut chances and vs Bournemouth was everything he could be.

Probable Lineups:

Arsenal 4-2-3-1 Liverpool 3-4-3

Injuries and Suspensions:
Arsenal: Arteta (calf), Koscielny (calf), Özil (knee), Ramsey (hamstring), Rosicky (thigh), Wilshere (ankle)

Liverpool: Flanagan (knee), Johnson (groin), Sturridge (thigh), Suso (groin), Lovren (fitness test), Balotelli (suspended – 1)

Head to Head:

Head to Head Seasonal Statistics

Match Officials:
Referee: Michael Oliver (M, Y, R)
Assistant Referees: S Long, L Betts
Fourth Official: C Pawson

Broadcast Information:
UK: Sky Sports 1 16.00 BST
US: NBC Sports Network 11:00AM EST

YAMA Prediction
Arsenal 2 – 1 Liverpool

In the end, in a battle of whose defense will hold its nerve, Arsenal edge it out. It will be hard fought but Arsenal’s attack will take advantage of Liverpool’s defensive disorganization.

MATCH FACTS: (Courtesy FourFourTwo)

• Liverpool have won just two of the last 14 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W2 D7 L5).
• There have been four 90th minute or later goals in the last six Premier League meetings between Liverpool and Arsenal at Anfield.
• Liverpool v Arsenal has seen more hat-tricks than any other fixture in Barclays Premier League history (5).
• Last season’s 5-1 annihilation of the Gunners at Anfield ended a run of six home games without a win over the Gunners for the Reds (D3 L3).
• Arsenal have trailed in six of the last seven Premier League games against Liverpool at Anfield and come back to win two and draw three of those six where they fell behind.
• Mario Balotelli has had more shots (42; inc. blocked) than any other player yet to score in the Premier League this season.
• Only Sergio Aguero (17) has had an involvement (goals or assists) in more Premier League goals than Alexis Sanchez (14) this season.
• Alexis Sanchez has scored (7) or assisted (4) 11 of Arsenal’s last 17 Premier League goals (65%).
• After failing to score with his previous 38 shots this season in the Premier League (inc. blocked), Santi Cazorla has scored with three of his last seven in the competition.
• Liverpool had more points from their first 16 games of 2010-11 under Roy Hodgson (22) than they do currently in 2014-15 (21). Based on three points for a win, this is Liverpool’s worst -record after 16 games since 1964-65.

 What are your thoughts on this match? Can Arsenal  take all 3 points at Liverpool? Who should start? What do you think the score will be? Let us know.